Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[GaWx]

Agreed although most models did show this westward jog and then another brief wnw movement prior to finally stalling and sliding sw

Agreed. As long as she makes it to above 34N by late tonight, she’d be following models. Now if she were not to 34N by, say, 3AM or so, that might be a sign the models are too far north.

 

[whatalife]

FV3 right across ILM and seems to have shifted the heaviest axis of rain slightly north

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So we saw some 12z models go south and now this model goes a little more north. Interesting.


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[Shawn]

Is it possible we can turn the Auto Update on this page on due to the storm moving closer and things getting busy?

We are in a storm mode of sorts. Enabling the auto update would send too many refresh requests to the server at once and basically kill the site's connection limit. We are already pushing it by expanding the connection limit to 1.5x what the memory we have truly supports.

 

[Metwannabe]

So we saw some 12z models go south and now this model goes a little more north. Interesting.


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I actually think it basically held serve, it's the precip shield that shifted north somewhat and I lean this way too, that heavy axis is definitely going to be N/NE of the center

 

[Rain Cold]

So we saw some 12z models go south and now this model goes a little more north. Interesting.


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It doesn’t dive it as deep into SC after the SW dip.

 

[whatalife]

I actually think it basically held serve, it's the precip shield that shifted north somewhat and I lean this way too, that heavy axis is definitely going to be N/NE of the center

Agreed.


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[Shawn]

For a little more detail about the auto-refresh, we are currently on a server package where we are "grandfathered in" and if we make any vast plan changes at this point, we will actually lose features, space, and bandwidth with increased costs.

We'll try to work things out and possibly even move server companies if we must before the Winter season.

 

[Metwannabe]

I stand corrected, it's southern most point did shift north

Agreed.


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[whatalife]

It doesn’t dive it as deep into SC after the SW dip.

Yep. I tend to agree with Deltadog and Gawx that 34N is the benchmark and does it get at or above it before it stalls.



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[whatalife]

I stand corrected, it's southern most point did shift north

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Cool no problem.


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[Metwannabe]

It's going to be extremely close, it may be moving a hair and I mean a hair north of due west atm

Agreed. As long as she makes it to above 34N by late tonight, she’d be following models. Now if she were not to 34N by, say, 3AM or so, that might be a sign the models are too far north.

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[deltadog03]

It's going to be extremely close, it may be moving a hair and I mean a hair north of due west atm

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I agree that if there is any north movement its def much less now .

 

[Kylo]

If nothing else the GFS/GEFS has been consistent. The UK landfall further north but did the track deep into SC.

 

[GaWx]

I agree that if there is any north movement its def much less now .

Following the lead of the GFS, CDN, and JMA, the 12 UKMET is ~50 miles E of the 0Z run at hour 48 with it not far inland from Georgetown vs between Florence and Columbia on 0Z UK. OTOH as mentioned, the 12Z FV3 is a little NE of its prior run.
With those 4 models moving somewhat toward the 0Z Euro, will the Euro hold serve with its still on its own CHS hit or will it finally come back to the consensus some and be N of CHS? Any bets?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Following the lead of the GFS, CDN, and JMA, the 12 UKMET is ~50 miles E of the 0Z run at hour 48 with it not far inland from Georgetown vs between Florence and Columbia on 0Z UK. OTOH as mentioned, the 12Z FV3 is a little NE of its prior run.
With those 4 models moving somewhat toward the 0Z Euro, will the Euro hold serve with its still on its own CHS hit or will it finally come back to the consensus some and be N of CHS? Any bets?

My gamble is that Euro sticks to the same idea but shifts North a bit. Between Georgetown and little river at landfall

 

[accu35]

Following the lead of the GFS, CDN, and JMA, the 12 UKMET is ~50 miles E of the 0Z run at hour 48 with it not far inland from Georgetown vs between Florence and Columbia on 0Z UK. OTOH as mentioned, the 12Z FV3 is a little NE of its prior run.
With those 4 models moving somewhat toward the 0Z Euro, will the Euro hold serve with its still on its own CHS hit or will it finally come back to the consensus some and be N of CHS? Any bets?

Larry, I'll go whatever bet you come up with. You know your stuff.

 

[Brick Tamland]

NHC says she is making landfall near Wilmington by 8 am tomorrow.

 

[Kylo]

Following the lead of the GFS, CDN, and JMA, the 12 UKMET is ~50 miles E of the 0Z run at hour 48 with it not far inland from Georgetown vs between Florence and Columbia on 0Z UK. OTOH as mentioned, the 12Z FV3 is a little NE of its prior run.
With those 4 models moving somewhat toward the 0Z Euro, will the Euro hold serve with its still on its own CHS hit or will it finally come back to the consensus some and be N of CHS? Any bets?

Landfall just north of ILM. I don't think the Euro will show it re-entering the atlantic, I see it dropping towards Orangeburg then to Anderson.

 

[WeatherLC]

Getting very windy in surf city

 

[Ethan]

Euros coming out and it's more north and west than this mornings run.