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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
So, if someone living in CHS and wanted to know if they're out of the woods and don't need to evacuate, what would you tell them? Help! I've been asked by several there.
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I've told everyone that I know and has asked directly to me... expect 40 to 60mph sustained with gusts to hurricane force at times with rains 6"-12". Also have given them the EURO solution as what you should be preparing for since it shows the worst case scenario.
 
GaWx said:
So, if someone living in CHS wanted to know if they're out of the woods and don't need to evacuate, what would you tell them? Help! I've been asked by several there.
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Thats a tough one, Larry...I would say see how things evolve today. I think the euro is a little to far south...BUT I am not so sure. This might not make is north of 34N (like we talked about earlier)
 
Yeah the difference between the Euro and almost everything else is a mess on the entire South Carolina coast vs just some extra storm tide and thunderstorms (outside NE SC). That's a headache. If I lived just off the coast there, I'd leave based on the Euro for a couple of days just to be safe.
 
deltadog03 said:
Thats a tough one, Larry...I would say see how things evolve today. I think the euro is a little to far south...BUT I am not so sure. This might not make is north of 34N (like we talked about earlier)
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That's where the devil is in the details. Maybe the EURO's SW crawl won't be as extreme... but at the same time, official forecast plots keep her 34°N essentially. All guidance shows a bend to the WSW. Florence not getting past 34°N with what appears to be some WSW component completely throws NHCs plot line off and subtle track differences have significant consequences downstream, inland in the SC Lowcountry and points northward (And westward too). What a nightmare and on a storm without historical precedent.
 
Stormsfury said:
That's where the devil is in the details. Maybe the EURO's SW crawl won't be as extreme... but at the same time, official forecast plots keep her 34°N essentially. All guidance shows a bend to the WSW. Florence not getting past 34°N with what appears to be some WSW component completely throws NHCs plot line off and subtle track differences have significant consequences downstream, inland in the SC Lowcountry and points northward (And westward too). What a nightmare and on a storm without historical precedent.
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Very good points!! @GaWx (Larry) I would say, if your in CHS prepare for a potential landfalling hurricane, and hope it does go north.
 
The best advice I can give is to tell people who are wondering on the SC coasts, is:
"Our most reliable model shows a eerie situation vs other guidance, and it's better to be safe than sorry."
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
What about wind speeds and rain in Georgia based on the Euro?
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Shows winds sustained well below TS force, probably 15 to 25 mph, but gusts could be much higher. Rain isn't too much.
ecmwf_max_gust_georgia_108.png

ecmwf_acc_precip_georgia_108.png
 
deltadog03 said:
I would say that for sure, but almost maybe loosing a bit of latitude..or def. around 265-280
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I'm guessing this is a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. Even the Euro doesn't hit its northernmost point til late tonight. However, if she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier
 
GaWx said:
I'm guessing this is a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. However, if she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier
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I agree, and that's a hard one to answer because looking at the steering its sandwiched in-between the 2 high's....The one over the SE and north of there looks like its starting to take over more and thats why the NW and maybe even WNW movement has stopped.
 
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