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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

SD said:
I'm conflicted here. I could see being in 10-12 but easily in 1-3

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SD said:
I'm conflicted here. I could see being in 10-12 but easily in 1-3

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Per the GFS you are about to get washed completely away.....
 
12Z gfs hits Myrtle Beach dead-on before turning inland. Prior 3 runs were about 25 miles inland from there fwiw
 
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I'm 45 miles inland from Myrtle Beach, what should I expect? Luckily I bought enough supplies to last 3 weeks in case of no power.
 
The 12Z GGEM hour 42 is 50 miles SE of its 0Z run or near Georgetown, SC, right on coast vs Florence, SC, on prior run.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GGEM hour 42 is 50 miles SE of its 0Z run or near Georgetown, SC, right on coast vs Florence, SC, on prior run.
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So that makes it the nam, rgem, and ggem all further south of their prior runs?


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whatalife said:
So that makes it the nam, rgem, and ggem all further south of their prior runs?


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And GFS

Edit: And fwiw JMA well south of prior runs well down in SC (looks like it is S of Columbia though tidbits maps crude)
 
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Bsud said:
What are they basing that off of? The GFS is not showing totals like that for upstate.

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A lot has to do with knowledge of the favored areas in WNC and N SC. With a storm path that the NHC has projected, the northern upstate and WNC would be on the NE side of the storm which is the area that has the highest rainfall. Combine that with the enhanced upslope flow and you get large rain totals.
 
I am interested to see how much more latitude this can gain. looks like its hit a little wall trying to climb the coast a bit. Recon about to punch the center again shortly. Dry air is trying to mix out as well.
 
deltadog03 said:
I am interested to see how much more latitude this can gain. looks like its hit a little wall trying to climb the coast a bit. Recon about to punch the center again shortly. Dry air is trying to mix out as well.
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All models, even including the Euro, get her to just N of 34N tonight and tomorrow morning before any SW turn. So, I think that’s a benchmark of sorts. Will she make it there by then? There’s still plenty of time (18-24 hours) to do so per models.
 
deltadog03 said:
I am interested to see how much more latitude this can gain. looks like its hit a little wall trying to climb the coast a bit. Recon about to punch the center again shortly. Dry air is trying to mix out as well.
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Agreed although most models did show this westward jog and then another brief wnw movement prior to finally stalling and sliding sw
 
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