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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Kylo said:
Not that it matters that much but this may not be a hurricane at landfall, or at most minimal, another 24-36 hours to go. Asymmetric center, no southern half of storm.

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Dunno about landfall but currently I'd say 105. Another thing that also stands out is the cooling of temps within the eye itself per low and mid level water vapor bands.
 
Someone on another discussion said that the storm is looking better and shear is abating. Folks here are saying the opposite. Which is it??!
 
no longer a major

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
3k has quite the gradient. Less than an 1" in Raleigh and 12-18" down in FAY. 30" by ILM! Still going at hour 60 too.

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Kylo said:
This is a Florence discussion thread, it's reasonable to discuss whether it's looking healthy.
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That's fine, but to keep saying things like, "The southern side of Florence looks poor, it probably won't be a hurricane when it makes landfall." There's nothing reasonable about that at all. imo
 
Kylo said:
3k has quite the gradient. Less than an 1" in Raleigh and 12-18" down in FAY. 30" by ILM! Still going at hour 60 too.

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That’s unrealistic. The precip shield will expand north more than that. Not saying that Fayetteville wouldn’t get more than Raleigh, but that kind of gradient is unlikely, IMO.
 
WeatherLC said:
Someone on another discussion said that the storm is looking better and shear is abating. Folks here are saying the opposite. Which is it??!
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NHC's first paragraph of it's latest discussion thread is fairly telling. This is not a healthy hurricane, which is ultimately good for the coast of NC. Still, the flooding with the winds, even if they are lower than expected will be nasty.

Satellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
significant changes in the structure of Florence and the
environment near the storm since the last advisory. Microwave
satellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of
the storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center. The aircraft also reports
that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a
radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems
to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,
most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb
seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central
pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the
initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
 
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