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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I feel bad for John Cessarich. He sounded really deflated on air. His map had Flo hitting as a Cat1 near Wilmington and moving relatively quickly to the south and west. He wasn’t really concerned about much of anything. I’m not sure what to think at this point
 
Arcc said:
Two things to note is

1: Our hurricane models still bust horrible often on intensity.

2: The models are still bad at predicting wind shear.
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Agreed, especially with the second point, I would add dry air to that point as well.

EDIT: FWIW, Florence looks a little better now than it did even an hour ago, but we've seen this song and dance multiple times. I'm curious to see if it's one more last comeback to a major hurricane or if she will remain steady as she goes over the next 12hrs or so.

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accu35 said:
If Flo is weakening that's a very good thing in my book. Yesterday she was expected to be a cat 5 so anything below that is a blessing from God. I think about the 200 people on that NC island that stayed at there home, and that there lives are in danger along the coast line, with a drop in strength or more could very well spare them more now than before
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Yeah. The people that stayed on Ocracoke are looking pretty smart atm. Subject to change
 
Fwiw raw T# have gone up a tad from 4.9 at 0115UTC to 5.2 at 0245UTC

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