B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Same thing with winter storms here. 99% of the time they are not as big as modeled, even just a few days out.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
ICON looks faster at 39 hours.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I guess there is still about 36 hours to adjust the track if needed. Seems the models lately want to bring Flo farther north and then west inland before going south.
Hmmmmm,,I remember you saying something like this during a coastal snowstorm not too long ago!????
But really, with the forward speed increasing and the stall not as pronounced, that would increase wind damage a little?
Icon is west of its previous runs but still north of most everything
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Actually a little north...
The new forecast track lies between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids, and it is nudged just
a little to the north of the previous track.
Haha
Hmmmmm,,I remember you saying something like this during a coastal snowstorm not too long ago!????
But really, with the forward speed increasing and the stall not as pronounced, that would increase wind damage a little?
Yeah, it could, especially for areas farther inland.
ICON has Florence going inland and bending SW inland at 48 hours.
cyclogent
Member
couple of tidbits from the latest NHC update...
"reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center."
"the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt."
"While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves."
Just shows how unpredictable some hurricanes can be, but otherwise still a major problem for the Carolinas.
"reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center."
"the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt."
"While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves."
Just shows how unpredictable some hurricanes can be, but otherwise still a major problem for the Carolinas.
ICON quite a bit west than 18z. Pounding RC and SD.
Kylo
Member
ICON is just rotting away in SE NC.
Lol Cat2 now still with plenty of time to fall apart even more. Yes yes I know, flooding will be the biggest threat I get it but come on it will be a miracle if this thing can hit as a Cat 1 at this point. I’m watching the news now and it’s pretty clear they wrote all of their catastrophic one liners before Florence decided to fall apart
ICON now has Florence moving into South Carolina as a weak tropical storm at 63 hours.
The storm looks like trash. It will be lucky to hit as a TS. Dry air from the SW has absolutely wrecked it. I think it was undergoing an EWRC when that started and it just went downhill from there. Couple that with the shear she is currently fighting and it’s lights out for major cane Florence.
Hopefully we can get this thing down to a wet TD that gives us some ample rain and moves on.
Hopefully we can get this thing down to a wet TD that gives us some ample rain and moves on.
Kylo
Member
QPF from ICON through 90.
accu35
Member
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If Flo is weakening that's a very good thing in my book. Yesterday she was expected to be a cat 5 so anything below that is a blessing from God. I think about the 200 people on that NC island that stayed at there home, and that there lives are in danger along the coast line, with a drop in strength or more could very well spare them more now than before
Two things to note is
1: Our hurricane models still bust horrible often on intensity.
2: The models are still bad at predicting wind shear.
1: Our hurricane models still bust horrible often on intensity.
2: The models are still bad at predicting wind shear.
Looks like Northern model trends continue next up GFS