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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Seems like most of the model runs today have come farther NW with Flo and making landfall near Wilmington, and then going inland there instead of stalling at Wilmington and then going south to SC.
 
I know short range models are good to look at now more importantly, also it's now cast time.
 
metwannabe said:
Shane mentioned this earlier and I'm with him not sure how accurate these sim IR images are, but the hi res NAM also looks like garbage now but ends up like this..... I'm sure it will not happen but never let your guard down completely.

nam3km_ir_seus_1.png


nam3km_ir_seus_22.png
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It's pretty much lock step with the 12k on track as well. It may be a little too strong but the idea of getting inland and moving west before slowing and drifting south so far tonight makes me nervous

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SD said:
Big core of 70-85kt 925s pushing inland. Probably getting areas of 60-70 mph gusts well inland per the nam
01ca538e6dcf3c0c9a7a47dea3b995f7.jpg


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Yikes. Keeps getting worse up this way.
 
It’s easy to armchair quarterback, but I swear Flo’s eye looks to be solid again, and getting better organized, IMO, looking at IR satellite
 
Nam at 60 quite a bit farther north than 18z at 66. 18z had it trucking SW down the SC coast.
 
Kylo said:
Not that it matters that much but this may not be a hurricane at landfall, or at most minimal, another 24-36 hours to go. Asymmetric center, no southern half of storm.

View attachment 6301
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I don't know if it will look like a hurricane tomorrow. If that shear drives dry air into the core, it will end up looking more extratopical with convection all on it's north and NE side.
 
Kylo said:
Not that it matters that much but this may not be a hurricane at landfall, or at most minimal, another 24-36 hours to go. Asymmetric center, no southern half of storm.

View attachment 6301
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I have been thinking a Cat 2 at lf. I still think that will be the case.
 
I get that Florence doesn't (and hasn't) looked too hot today, but can we stop with the definite statements on how Florence won't be a Category this or Category that or she'll probably only be a TS when it makes landfall. It's obviously clear we don't have the slightest clue what Florence can or will be until we've reached that point in time. Besides, it doesn't matter if Florence is a tropical storm or a Category 5 hurricane, the greatest concern has been and will continue to be flooding and storm surge, winds are just a supplementary factor to the equation.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
I get that Florence doesn't (and hasn't) looked too hot today, but can we stop with the definite statements on how Florence won't be a Category this or Category that or she'll probably only be a TS when it makes landfall. It's obviously clear we don't have the slightest clue what Florence can or will be until we've reached that point in time. Besides, it doesn't matter if Florence is a tropical storm or a Category 5 hurricane, the greatest concern has been and will continue to be flooding and storm surge, winds are just a supplementary factor to the equation.
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This is a Florence discussion thread, it's reasonable to discuss whether it's looking healthy.
 
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