No saying it isn't being sheared, but the shear there is from the anticyclone over the hurricane.
On of the reasons I don't care for that chart.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
No saying it isn't being sheared, but the shear there is from the anticyclone over the hurricane.
On of the reasons I don't care for that chart.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The longwave pattern over North America and the western Atlantic leading up to Hurricane Betsy in 1965 making a sudden turn from a NW to SW heading east of Florida is actually very similar to what we're going to see w/ Florence near the Carolinas although there are some subtle differences. Yeah the track is unusual but something like this has been observed before.
They just tweeted it, I guess based off the 5pm advisory its not that far fetched
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WeatherAddiction
Member
0z runs will be important
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks close to the NHC track.
cyclogent
Member
Yep the UKIE is holding its own, though not quite as good as the Euro and HMON for last night's 0z runs. The Euro missed its mark by only 0.1 degrees or 7 miles, while the HMON came in 2nd and missed by 0.2 degrees or 14 miles. Most models came in with a miss of 0.3 to 0.5 degrees, and thought it was interesting they were mostly too far east. Out of all the models the NAVGEM was by far the worst with a miss of 0.8 degrees or 55 miles.
so maybe like 942mb...ish.....
Snowflowxxl
Member
00z NAM just initialized! Here comes the important night suite of the models. Who know where the hell they will take Florence next!
Florence is looking like one of those storms who goes from ERC to ERC to ERC. Not going to get to Cat 5, IMO, and we can probably put the annular talk back in the drawer for this one too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one big factor that was against Florence becoming annular is the SSTs in its path are on the high end of the parameter space for annular hurricanes, the BL in the right circumstances akin to days where we have ridiculous amounts of CAPE leading to convective development here at home, can become to some extent almost "uncontrollably" unstable when SSTs start to get above 28C. That's likely part of the reason why most annular hurricanes are in the 26-28C range.
That makes sense. I read the earlier posts about the environmental characteristics, but didn’t want to clog the thread asking a bunch of questions. Thanks for the context!
BHS1975
Member
It’s passing over 30c water now.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
I think alot of people are just assuming that a stall off of Wilmington would spare Raleigh, but I'd honestly expect the precip field to be pretty expansive to the NW. Also if it stalls right near ILM that is a pretty straight path to steer tropical storm force gusts directly towards the TriangleOh...74-110
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The larger Florence becomes the more the water will be mixed before the eyewall passes over it which limits its theoretical maximum intensity and having larger wind radii means it takes longer for the storm to intensify even if the conditions were favorable.
Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM is east at 33
It's also had an area of below normal pwats on its south side today so that's probably kept us from seeing a huge CDO and a more aesthetically pleasing storm. It will start moving into an area of higher pwats overnight and tomorrow so the south side of the system will likely fill in and we get a more classic satellite appearance
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Cary_Snow95
Member
NAM pretty good jump NE this run