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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

The latest HH center fix is down near 27.8N, or a few tenths of a degree south of the 8pm NHC advisory package that pegged Florence at 28N. Parallax, vortex tilting due to sub-outflow layer shear, and/or the inner, relic eyewall undergoing trochoidal wobbles as the outer annulus (ring) of vorticity associated w/ the newly forming outer eyewall may explain why the center is a bit further south than the NHC originally estimated.

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SD said:
It's also had an area of below normal pwats on its south side today so that's probably kept us from seeing a huge CDO and a more aesthetically pleasing storm. It will start moving into an area of higher pwats overnight and tomorrow so the south side of the system will likely fill in and we get a more classic satellite appearance

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Here’s a map

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How in the heck is Flo still going nw on the nam with that monster ridge wrapping around it?


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0z NAM takes Flo to the NC coast just below Hatteras and stalls her out. It doesn't look as strong on this one. But the NAM is known for not being a very accurate model for tropical systems that are still more than 48 hours out.
 
The craziest (outlier) model I saw today was the CMC. Up through OBX then hard left into SEVA. I worry about something that stalls, that it could go anywhere. And even though many EPS members took the hard left and ended SW, the initial approach seemed farther north. Just not sure anything is off the table.
 
The 3km NAM essentially shows Irma 2.0 off the NC coast, not a reliable model but definitely low key some entertainment value although this is obviously very serious for those in its path.
 
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