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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

18Z HWRF: A major H hit on LA in the 950s though well west of NO. That's very strong for Oct in the N Gulf. Michael was a once in a lifetime Oct hit and Opal is a rarity.
 
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BHS1975 said:
Those SSTs are boiling. The sky is the limit.
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But not boiling in the N Gulf thank goodness! They're near normal for early October with nice cooling from the peak thanks to several cold fronts. But if Delta were to come in as a cat 4 like the HWRF shows and with it not moving slowly, LA would still likely be looking at a cat 3 landfall.
 
GaWx said:
But not boiling in the N Gulf thank goodness! They're near normal for early October with nice cooling from the peak thanks to several cold fronts. But if Delta were to come in as a cat 4 like the HWRF shows and with it not moving slowly, LA would still likely be looking at a cat 3 landfall.
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yeah THCP weaksauce in the gulf.
 

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Good news with this one is we will not have a peaking storm making landfall. Delta will be in the decline or even rapid decline by the time it’s close to the US coast.

Doesn’t mean impacts will be small or insignificant but thankfully we aren’t looking at a “doomsday” scenario.

26.5c is regarded as the bottom end threshold for hurricanes. With a nice portion of the gulf below that point Delta will be a declining storm upon landfall. The question is how high does it get before temps drop off.

12z euro gets it into the 960s before declining to the 990s at landfall.
The recent hwrf is a bomb but also weakens abt 30mb from peak before landfall.

All good news!
64150C0D-D029-4998-870F-60B015FA8067.png188CD5D2-2872-4C4E-9615-525AA531BD13.png
 
I make these all the time with our tropical systems. Should post them more.

Delta looks ready to rock and roll tonight on WV. Nice symmetrical “CDO” with a fully wrapped center. Very organized compared to recent systems we have seen in their early stages.

Delta also has a nice big envelope of moisture and the dry air in front is moving with Delta not against. I don’t see any dry air being a problem. It’s first roadblock is probably land interaction from the relatively flat Yucatán peninsula.

44C6E0BD-0A91-4F2A-AE03-587A4ECF8D8D.jpeg

A storm this symmetrical in the early stages usually goes on to be a nice specimen in the coming 24-36hrs.

Recent radar loop also shows a nice symmetrical eyewall forming. Slow GIF.2BA45A2C-0B5F-4A16-8DAB-2E056209EA3E.gif

Here is a good site to bookmark to search out radars in the Caribbean and the rest of the world.

https://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/
 
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NCSNOW said:
Katrina was a 5 and made LF as a 3,Right? Even though it was weakening at LF,the cat 5 surge was well on its way. Correct me if im wrong. Thats what I always worry about in NO,is the surge, pressure on the levees etc.
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Correct
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Good news with this one is we will not have a peaking storm making landfall. Delta will be in the decline or even rapid decline by the time it’s close to the US coast.

Doesn’t mean impacts will be small or insignificant but thankfully we aren’t looking at a “doomsday” scenario.

26.5c is regarded as the bottom end threshold for hurricanes. With a nice portion of the gulf below that point Delta will be a declining storm upon landfall. The question is how high does it get before temps drop off.

12z euro gets it into the 960s before declining to the 990s at landfall.
The recent hwrf is a bomb but also weakens abt 30mb from peak before landfall.

All good news!
View attachment 49825View attachment 49826
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Can the water temps warm over the next few days before arrival?
 
BHS1975 said:
They will cool a bit if anything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It's not even just water temperature there will be increasing shear with the recurvature

Not that I'm downplaying at all even a weakening Cat 2/3 from a possible 4 is a bad deal
 
Brent said:
I mean we went from a PTC to a hurricane in a day

The sky is the limit the next couple of days other than the Yucatan
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Yup....NHC says reasonable to believe that rapid intensification will continue in the short term.
 
TS winds out only 60 miles from center.....got to watch these small tight cores.....tend to go boom in that part of the world....
 
A center relocation in a hurricane? Odd

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.
;

If this gets a 2 mile wide eye though Cancun is screwed
 
Brent said:
A center relocation in a hurricane? Odd

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.
;

If this gets a 2 mile wide eye though Cancun is screwed
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Yeah that is a bit weird, its just about to get in the 150 mile range of Caymen's radar so maybe that will help, it does look much worse the last hr or two....at least with the banding...

 
The HWRF basically has a Cat 5 hitting Cancun

This storm was headed for Western Cuba yesterday...

hwrf_ref_26L_12 (1).pnghwrf_satIR_26L_7.png
 
HWRF second round of strengthening late Wednesday into Thursday hwrf_satIR_26L_12.png.

and then as it approaches landfall on Friday you definitely see signs of weakening up into the 950s but it's still a very formidable hurricane here

hwrf_satIR_26L_16.pnghwrf_ref_26L_31.png
 
Euro is really far west like where Laura hit actually from 72 to 96 almost looks like it's gonna hit Texas but of course it turns right last night it was north of New Orleans here!prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc (4).png
 
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Pressure 974, center still looks like its struggling a bit on radar, luckily for Cayman the circulation is so small right now.
 
Well she doesn’t seem to be struggling that’s for sure .. rapidly just intensified into a CAT 2 hurricane ... buckle up we have all day of warm water and great conditions for this thing.. boutta see it pop an eye any hour now
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well she doesn’t seem to be struggling that’s for sure .. rapidly just intensified into a CAT 2 hurricane ... buckle up we have all day of warm water and great conditions for this thing.. boutta see it pop an eye any hour now
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Radar is looking better the core is small so it doesnt take much NHC very bullish....the pressure hung out at 974 for a few passes as the eyewall reorganized and it appears it is off to the races again...

"The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid
intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the
past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it
reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer
moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern
Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification
probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories.
Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan
landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a
good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar
data. "
 
They were saying yesterday it might make it to a car 2, now NHC saying cat 4 is possible now! Now dropped 74 MB in 24 hours, per TWC
 
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