Pattern Magnificent March

[Rain Cold]

It's a stale Arctic air mass modified by March sun. But it's a winter storm pattern...

We need us a good 300dm ULL. Do they still make those?

 

[pcbjr]

I agree, I think that's the only way anyone from NC south outside of higher elevations would get more than 1" of snow out of this pattern, and I see no potential for that to happen at this point. It's a non-zero chance, sure, but for most of us I wouldn't give it more than a 10% probability and probably not even that for most outside of the climo favored areas of Upstate SC and western Piedmont of NC (outside of the mountains).

I also think one thing that can sometimes trip people up looking at H5 analogs is they forget or just don't fully consider that you are comparing a snapshot in time, but not considering the path that got you to that point. What happened in the week leading up to that point? Where did your air mass originate from and what kind of snowpack was laid down out ahead of it. This stuff matters significantly for us in January, and all the more so in March.

So damn well said ... Thanks!

 

[Tarheel1]

I hope I’m allowed to post this here in the March thread...

 

[Jon]

I also think one thing that can sometimes trip people up looking at H5 analogs is they forget or just don't fully consider that you are comparing a snapshot in time, but not considering the path that got you to that point. What happened in the week leading up to that point? Where did your air mass originate from and what kind of snowpack was laid down out ahead of it. This stuff matters significantly for us in January, and all the more so in March.

Interesting. I don’t know anyone who does what you’re saying lol. But I agree — usually analogs aren’t just storm specific but pattern-specific, meaning one would consider many things including what happened leading up to the storm, base state, etc.

For example....



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[ForsythSnow]

I agree, I think that's the only way anyone from NC south outside of higher elevations would get more than 1" of snow out of this pattern, and I see no potential for that to happen at this point. It's a non-zero chance, sure, but for most of us I wouldn't give it more than a 10% probability and probably not even that for most outside of the climo favored areas of Upstate SC and western Piedmont of NC (outside of the mountains).

I also think one thing that can sometimes trip people up looking at H5 analogs is they forget or just don't fully consider that you are comparing a snapshot in time, but not considering the path that got you to that point. What happened in the week leading up to that point? Where did your air mass originate from and what kind of snowpack was laid down out ahead of it. This stuff matters significantly for us in January, and all the more so in March.

Definitely agree about the time frame. We're going to be in March, and BL will be a big issue many will overlook and think rates will overcome, but how can rates overcome about 2 to 3 thousand feet? They just can't especially when the surface is in the upper 40s and the 925 layer is in the upper 30s. The only way as mentioned for something widespread is for something uncommon to happen that causes all levels to support snow, which I can't see happening at this time.

 

[Webberweather53]

Definitely agree about the time frame. We're going to be in March, and BL will be a big issue many will overlook and think rates will overcome, but how can rates overcome about 2 to 3 thousand feet? They just can't especially when the surface is in the upper 40s and the 925 layer is in the upper 30s. The only way as mentioned for something widespread is for something uncommon to happen that causes all levels to support snow, which I can't see happening at this time.

This exact "uncommon" scenario played out in early December when many were counting out much snow to begin with because BL, ground, and low-level temps were too warm, etc. and we know how that shook out

 

[ForsythSnow]

This exact "uncommon" scenario played out in early December when many were counting out much snow to begin with because BL, ground, and low-level temps were too warm, etc. and we know how that shook out

However, that was a different setup. We had a good storm from a large +PNA and eastern trough. In addition, the surface was in the 30s and the 925 layer was a few degrees above freezing at most. Here, it's a different scenario with a -NAO bringing the trough down. Is it impossible? No, but it's not likely we see a big system like December, especially after December.

 

[Webberweather53]

However, that was a different setup. We had a good storm from a large +PNA and eastern trough. In addition, the surface was in the 30s and the 925 layer was a few degrees above freezing at most. Here, it's a different scenario with a -NAO bringing the trough down. Is it impossible? No, but it's not likely we see a big system like December, especially after December.

Actually, the temperatures weren't just a few degrees above freezing, they were about +5C (~8-10F above freezing) between the 925 hPa layer and the surface before the precipitation began around 12z on December 7th according to soundings conducted in Atlanta, which is very difficult to overcome. The above freezing layer was fairly deep and extended up to 800mb (~6500 feet above ground level). By 0z on the 8th some precipitation had already began and the layer was already cooling but was still several degrees above freezing. The snowfall climatology of the southeastern US in early December is comparable to mid-March.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Actually, the temperatures weren't just a few degrees above freezing, they were about +5C (~8-10F above freezing) between the 925 hPa layer and the surface before the precipitation began around 12z on December 7th according to soundings conducted in Atlanta, which is very difficult to overcome. The above freezing layer was fairly deep and extended up to 800mb. By 0z on the 8th some precipitation had already began and the layer was already cooling but was still several degrees above freezing. The snowfall climatology of the southeastern US in early December is comparable to mid-March.
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That's until 0Z on the 8th, or late at night on the 7th. It didn't change over until around 12Z, or some time after sunrise here. ATL was some time later I believe.

 

[Webberweather53]

That's until 0Z on the 8th, or late at night on the 7th. It didn't change over until around 12Z, or some time after sunrise here. ATL was some time later I believe.

By 12z, some cooling of the layer had already taken place due to evaporation, melting of hydrometeors & sensible heat transfer. The point is the near-surface warm layer was several times larger in breadth and magnitude than you were willing to admit and the actual sounding data confirms this. There's a big difference between "a few degrees above freezing" and nearly 10F above and a layer that's only "2000-3000 feet deep" and one that's 6000-7000 feet deep which was observed in Atlanta. Also have to remember the balloon trajectory in this case was to the northeast towards the cold side of the storm with southwesterly flow aloft, arguably the near-surface layer is a tad warmer and deeper than the sounding advertises over Atlanta.

 

[GaWx]

As much as I've been trying to divert the discussion from too much excitement about winter storm potential this March so as to avoid potential disappointment & the resulting whining that would inevitably follow, it hasn't worked. All we know just about for sure is that it will cool down substantially from the current torch of torches.

 

[ForsythSnow]

As much as I've been trying to divert the discussion from too much excitement about winter storm potential this March so as to avoid potential disappointment & the resulting whining that would inevitably follow, it hasn't worked. All we know just about for sure is that it will cool down substantially from the current torch of torches.

I've been trying to help as well, but unfortunately it seems to not be working. They'll learn some day that the big March cool down doesn't always mean snow.

 

[Webberweather53]

As much as I've been trying to divert the discussion from too much excitement about winter storm potential this March so as to avoid potential disappointment & the resulting whining that would inevitably follow, it hasn't worked. All we know just about for sure is that it will cool down substantially from the current torch of torches.

I've been trying to help as well, but unfortunately it seems to not be working. They'll learn some day that the big March cool down doesn't always mean snow.

I'm looking back in this thread and trying to find any posts that reference any particular winter storms in early-mid March but apparently I'm missing something. Almost the entire discussion is geared towards the large-scale pattern & climatology

 

[Jon]

I'm looking back in this thread and trying to find any posts that reference any particular winter storms in early-mid March but apparently I'm missing something. Almost the entire discussion is geared towards the large-scale pattern & climatology

The excitement in this thread is out of control apparently. Missed on me as well.

I’ll leave this here, again, because people don’t get it.

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[Webberweather53]

It took longer than expected due to ENSO interference, a sudden stratospheric warming event, wave breaking in the EP, TCs and EQ Rossby Waves in the SW & WP respectively augmented by the EQBO, but the MJO is going to finally enter phase 1 & 2 w/ no problem.

 

[Webberweather53]

These freezing rain and freezing rain/thundersleet climatology graphics (from Chris McCray) are pretty sick. 10 ish annual hours of freezing rain w/ about one long duration event per season sounds about right here in RDU.

 

[GaWx]

I'm looking back in this thread and trying to find any posts that reference any particular winter storms in early-mid March but apparently I'm missing something. Almost the entire discussion is geared towards the large-scale pattern & climatology

I don't disagree. But there's a lot of talk about potential that I think will translate to a winter storm being deemed likely in some people's minds. I'm already predicting that if the first half of March ends up cold dominated without a significant winter storm in much of the area that there will be plenty of whining about it getting cold with little wintry precip. despite no winter storm being predicted.

 

[whatalife]

Nice paste bomb on the Euro control...only a matter of time before models have fantasy storms, then you’ll see about 100 posts in an hour here lol

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The excitement in this thread is out of control apparently. Missed on me as well.

I’ll leave this here, again, because people don’t get it.

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I’m sure this doesn’t help in getting people to excited.


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[Webberweather53]

The excitement in this thread is out of control apparently. Missed on me as well.

I’ll leave this here, again, because people don’t get it.

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Yeah beats me (as well as HM) apparently discussing a favorable long range pattern, how/why it's evolving a particular way, and the actual climatology of RDU & the I-40 corridor automatically means we're expecting a snowstorm to occur in this period, lol.

I don't disagree. But there's a lot of talk about potential that I think will translate to a winter storm being deemed likely in some people's minds. I'm already predicting that if the first half of March ends up cold dominated without a significant winter storm in much of the area that there will be plenty of whining about it getting cold with little wintry precip. despite no winter storm being predicted.

I don't disagree with that at all, we see it every winter at every turn even when the modeled pattern absolutely sucks. It's equivalent to when people perceive most or every atmospheric scientist as an on-air Television broadcaster, or get flustered when there's an opportunity for scattered thunderstorms and they remain high & dry. It's an integral part of the public's perception of atmospheric science to anticipate absolutes when we provide probabilistic distributions, large-scale patterns, and occasional deterministic values particularly in the short range. There's often a major disconnect in communication and inherent intent even between well seasoned enthusiasts and mets.

 

[Jon]

I’m sure this doesn’t help in getting people to excited.


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If that gets folks rocks off it’s not really my problem. I was more or less doing a two things:
1. Justifying the pattern in general supports a storm on the eastern seaboard
2. Poking fun at model run-to-run model watchers who continue to slide into my DM’s telling me the runs have been warm (they’ve since piped down) and the fact that, for some reason, people need a fantasy storm on an Op for “proof” a pattern is capable of producing which I think is coming hence my 100 posts an hour comment.



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[GeorgiaGirl]

If Jon and Eric were being misinterpreted on the pattern talk, I think there would be a lot more talk on here, lol.

Honestly I'm not enthused by a possible period of very unseasonably cool weather in March again though. I'm going to be very irritated if my dad's blueberries are lost again and he's said his peaches have flowers already (they have a bug issue though, but that's a different story for another time). I badly want to get back to seasonable but if we see a possible hard freeze I'm legit going to get mad this year.

 

[Webberweather53]

And if that exact same scenario unfolds in mid March the boundary layer would not cool down due to the increased sun angle of March, so I am a bit confused as to why you would use that as an example.

If the boundary layer is protected by a thick cloud deck (& occasionally capped w/ several kilometers of moderate-deep cb convection) as is often the case in most big storms, the sun angle becomes increasingly less relevant. It's definitely non-negligible but akin to warm ground temperatures its impact is often overstated in winter storms here. I chose this particular example because the depth of the near-surface warm layer was very profound for a major-very major accumulating snowstorm in parts of GA, AL, & MS and our climatology is similar in mid-March and early December. The air temperatures are usually cooler in December but the dynamical forcing mainly from convective precipitation is more intense late in the season esp from mid-February and beyond which offsets the impacts attributable to more intense incident shortwave radiation which leads to little-no net change in the overall amount of snow. The non-linear nature of convective precipitation widens the distribution and increases the ceiling of events if the dynamical cooling is particularly intense which is why you see more intense snow storms per capita in early-mid March vs early December and this is fleshed out in the 125-year record of winter events here in NC.

 

[Jon]

I don't disagree. But there's a lot of talk about potential that I think will translate to a winter storm being deemed likely in some people's minds. I'm already predicting that if the first half of March ends up cold dominated without a significant winter storm in much of the area that there will be plenty of whining about it getting cold with little wintry precip. despite no winter storm being predicted.

I wouldn’t get caught up in what others think. People have odd ways of interpreting things. I have no doubt some will call bust if the SE doesn’t get snow, but that’s not our problem, that’s their misinterpretation and not understanding the odds and/or having unrealistic expectations.

 

[whatalife]

If that gets folks rocks off it’s not really my problem. I was more or less doing a two things:
1. Justifying the pattern in general supports a storm on the eastern seaboard
2. Poking fun at model run-to-run model watchers who continue to slide into my DM’s telling me the runs have been warm (they’ve since piped down) and the fact that, for some reason, people need a fantasy storm on an Op for “proof” a pattern is capable of producing which I think is coming hence my 100 posts an hour comment.



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Nice! You were justifying the upcoming pattern with the euro control. And yes it is your problem when you feed into the hearts and minds of winter weenies with fantasy storms (such as using the euro control to prove your point). It certainly does nothing to help keep people’s expectations within normal reason/excitement. I know I’m guilty of doing the same thing at times. I like your posts Jon and to say you don’t understand the level of people’s excitement after posting the euro control from last night is interesting.


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[GaWx]

I guess I'm whined out after this winter. Brick whining about this winter, for example. He got the biggest single snow in 7 winters and still whined.

 

[Jon]

Nice! You were justifying the upcoming pattern with the euro control. And yes it is your problem when you feed into the hearts and minds of winter weenies with fantasy storms (such as using the euro control to prove your point). It certainly does nothing to help keep people’s expectations within normal reason/excitement. I know I’m guilty of doing the same thing at times. I like your posts Jon and to say you don’t understand the level of people’s excitement after posting the euro control from last night is interesting.


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Thanks! You missed my second point.

I don’t see the influx of excitement from my euro control post and it was obviously not a serious post. I did call for wild solutions, which I stand by (see the 18z GFS - that was close). But it’s not like I said NC is going to get 10”+ snow, did I? If I did, someone hacked my account.

Really though, it’s not my problem or responsibility to monitor or keep people’s excitement in check. I’m sure folks can handle themselves. I deal with people misinterpreting my posts on twitter all the time. Conveying a message online is incredibly difficult and it’s not something I want to spend my time worrying about.

 

[cd2play]

If it's meant to be, it will be, it will be. Baby, just let it be

 

[whatalife]

Thanks! You missed my second point.

I don’t see the influx of excitement from my euro control post and it was obviously not a serious post. I did call for wild solutions, which I stand by (see the 18z GFS - that was close). But it’s not like I said NC is going to get 10”+ snow, did I? If I did, someone hacked my account.

Really though, it’s not my problem or responsibility to monitor or keep people’s excitement in check. I’m sure folks can handle themselves. I deal with people misinterpreting my posts on twitter all the time. Conveying a message online is incredibly difficult and it’s not something I want to spend my time worrying about.

No. I got your second point and you are absolutely correct in saying it’s not your responsibility in monitoring people’s excitement. You are only responsible for what you post.


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[Jon]

No. I got your second point and you are absolutely correct in saying it’s not your responsibility in monitoring people’s excitement. You are only responsible for what you post.


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I take full responsibility.

Oh geez Ryan Maue just posted the control to 71,000 followers, which dumps feet of snow in NE. I’m off the hook I think.



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[whatalife]

I take full responsibility.

Oh geez Ryan Maue just posted the control to 71,000 followers, which dumps feet of snow in NE. I’m off the hook I think.



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So do we live in the NE or the SE? Was the control from last night in the NE or the SE that you posted?


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[Jon]

So do we live in the NE or the SE? Was the control from last night in the NE or the SE that you posted?


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You know the answer. I’m bored with the pointless back and forth. Apparently I hyped the whole forum up with the control. Lmao. Cheers dude.


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[whatalife]

You know the answer. I’m bored with the pointless back and forth. Apparently I hyped the whole forum up with the control. Lmao. Cheers dude.


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You certainly didn’t help. Have a good one.


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[EastAtlwx]

From what I have seen from Jon, he is definitely one of the ones to keep it objective. I see no problem in him “hyping” it as he has approached this very objectively and is just a reflection of his “confidence”. He’s not the one to spout the same “hyping” bs every time a single “piece” of evidence points anywhere. As far as I’m concerned, this is the first time I have seen him talk pattern change so strong and objectively. Hell, HM is on it too. Again, no problem in a little bit of “hyping” if it’s surrounded by an objective approach. The whole thing about posting the euro control. His point as I interpreted it is models are picking up a pattern that is more conducive for snow chances. That’s why they will probably start spewing out stuff like this a time progresses.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Well. Just as temperatures begin to cooperate at the beginning of March it just looks like a bunch of NW flow events from the 3rd through the 7th...we suck at winter. See you guys next year. I can't wait to forget this winter

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I'm glad I held off hope until the beginning of March

Looks frigid

 

[setxwx]

I'm going to the Smokies in mid march... so hoping the mountains do well in this pattern at least...

 

[Webberweather53]

The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature.

 

[Webberweather53]

The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. View attachment 4170 View attachment 4171 View attachment 4172 View attachment 4173 View attachment 4174
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This threat really doesn't scream large outbreak potential barring low-level instability doesn't shoot through the roof somehow and it honestly looks fairly similar to the day 3-4 threat already outlined by the SPC. Granted, areas in the Carolinas and GA might experience a bit more action in terms of precipitation as the retrograding Greenland blocking high squashes the SE US ridge and allows out s/w to come further southeastward before eventually going bonkers underneath the block somewhere in the western Atlantic

 

[Clayton]

The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. View attachment 4170 View attachment 4171 View attachment 4172 View attachment 4173 View attachment 4174
View attachment 4169

I'm not gonna lie. Although, I'd prefer big snow, the record highs that have been shattered in Atlanta the past few days are slightly exciting to say the least, along with this potential severe weather.

 

[Rain Cold]

The excitement in this thread is out of control apparently. Missed on me as well.

I’ll leave this here, again, because people don’t get it.

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I hear you brother. But it’s like telling your kid he gets to Carowinds for his birthday like last year, but when he gets there, you don’t let him ride any rides and all he gets is a plate of frog legs for lunch.