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Pattern Magnificent March

The way I see things at this moment..... We have one more shot before climo would argue against it. I feel pretty confident that snow will fall outside the mountains before winter comes to a close. Where and when is not that clear at the moment. Bottom line is that winter has not ended yet, especially here in western NC.
 
The first half of March looks to be setting up multiple chances of Winter weather from about I-20, North.

This isn't anything peculiar, as even Columbia, SC and surrounding Midlands recorded measurable snowfall just last March as late as the 12th.
 
image.png that's a massive block. We're going to have a shot at something. Could end up being a cold rain but it's been a while since we squeaked out a marginal paste bomb and I would say we're due. Hr 288 but this extreme -NAO has been showing up run after run
 
Shawn said:
The first half of March looks to be setting up multiple chances of Winter weather from about I-20, North.

This isn't anything peculiar, as even Columbia, SC and surrounding Midlands recorded measurable snowfall just last March as late as the 12th.
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Did you mean I-80?
 
Nice paste bomb on the Euro control...only a matter of time before models have fantasy storms, then you’ll see about 100 posts in an hour here lol
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In the winter of '83 I think, maybe '84, I remember a very strong cold front and and storm system that came through and there were tornado watches out, although I don't recall there being any tornadoes, and just an hour behind the frontal passage it was snowing. I know that happened through parts of Georgia and the Upstate of SC. It was kinda nerve racking on the thunderstorm side of it. I remember when I heard that it was snowing in Athens, I thought.....thank God, we'll be on the cold side soon, and sure enough, within an hour we were getting snow.
 
The 12z CMC brings the goods. If things set up as it's showing I'll take my chances and call it a winter.
 
A rule of thumb I've been using successfully with the Canadian is to add anywhere between 5-8F/C for 2m temperatures on it's coldest guidance.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The 12Z GFS has to be smoking something. Such a weird feature.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png
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What's so weird about cold air advection in the wake of a massive low pressure system bombing out over the western Atlantic underneath the Greenland Blocking high? Specifics/details will vary but something along these lines isn't that unrealistic given the pattern. Apparently every model is smoking something because a solution like that is being captured in nearly every piece of NWP in that frame give or take a few days.
 
Yeah, a very strong, wrapped up low will drag all that air in on the back end. The 850 map looks fine per GFS, if the setup were to occur with the system.
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, a very strong, wrapped up low will drag all that air in on the back end. The 850 map looks fine per GFS, if the setup were to occur with the system.
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That specific solution, the intensity and precise placement of the low will vary considerably but something like that is virtually probable at some point in some way, shape, or form in a pattern like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That specific solution, the intensity and precise placement of the low will vary considerably but something like that is virtually probable at some point in some way, shape, or form in a pattern like this.
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Its likely too deep/south into Florida like that, but who knows. Definitely not impossible.
 
Shawn said:
Its likely too deep/south into Florida like that, but who knows. Definitely not impossible.
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We don't really know that or are capable of assigning precise probabilities to a specific solution like this until we're at least in the medium range. It's not to be ignored, discounted, or deemed near impossible when you have a massive blocking high over Greenland and Eastern Canada.
 
It’s starting to look more and more likely that we will have a record breaking heat wave in February followed by a cold start to March for the 2nd year in a row. Snow or no snow I’ll be more then happy with just cooler temps.
 
Folks likely won't be thrilled about the 12Z EPS for early March as it is warmer than the prior run.
 
It will be fascinating to watch the possible evolution of the blocking and what could potentially happen, not saying March of '62 is gonna happen but if it did the ramifications up and down the East Coast will be monumental.

Gotta love the weather and all the possibilities it brings.
 
GaWx said:
Folks likely won't be thrilled about the 12Z EPS for early March as it is warmer than the prior run.
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I only care about March 6-10 lol....DCA north gets the first chance, although I wouldn’t be surprised if a clipper like system influences NC around 3/3 if it’s cold enough at 850


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GaWx said:
Folks likely won't be thrilled about the 12Z EPS for early March as it is warmer than the prior run.
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The run to run variability is too much to allow a single run to thrill or disappoint. We know it’s getting colder that much is a safe bet.


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The 18z GFS actually looks pretty cool at the end of its run for the SE.
 
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