It will be interesting to see at the end of winter how we averaged out temperature-wise for the whole winter.. I know we're 15 to 25 degrees warmer than average right now but I'm sure back in early January we were 15 to 25 degrees colder than average depending on where you are.
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Pattern Magnificent March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Jon
Member
PNA in the LR is headed toward neutral, also just because it’s negative doesn’t mean we can’t get a storm (it’s harder for the SE but NC could get lucky)...keep in mind we could have a neutral PNA and still pop a ridge strong enough to send a storm SE.
I’m also not convinced on the location of the ridging around Alaska once the -NAO forms. It could form largely to the east of the Aleutians which would pop a trough in the gulf of Alaska and a ridge on the west.
Loop the GEFS from day 10-16 and you can see this movement...here’s the last frame.
I’m also not convinced on the location of the ridging around Alaska once the -NAO forms. It could form largely to the east of the Aleutians which would pop a trough in the gulf of Alaska and a ridge on the west.
Loop the GEFS from day 10-16 and you can see this movement...here’s the last frame.
Kylo
Member
Last 10 days or so we have been in MJO phase 7. Temperature analogs versus actual.
Kylo
Member
Finally have good model agreement on the MJO going into March with it circling phases 8-1-2.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Xtreme Weather
Member
GFS 6z crazy pattern setup but if teleconnections are correct and H5 Patten is close its fixing to get carazzzzy
This is in partial due to the SSW and PV that died off. Temps well below normal
This is in partial due to the SSW and PV that died off. Temps well below normal
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
We still have a strong neg AO forecast to go with the negative nao. It might work out better for us to see snow...maybe it won't last as long?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Notice as I mentioned yesterday the Euro was likely way too fast in taking the MJO out of phase 7, it has not moved at all in the last 4 days, while the Euro and JMA consistently tried to take it into phase 8 in a hurry. Take their timing and amplitude of the MJO with truckloads of salt until we can actually get out of phase 7
MichaelJ
Member
I agree Webber but the GEFS (which has verified better on the MJO) was holding it stalled in 7 but also has it now moving into 8 and then 1-2 which is a bit of a change
pcbjr
Member
FWIW ...
Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
FWIW ...
Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
Lol typical. The -NAO is way out in the LR and is staying that way. Perhaps he will... no he won't. He won't see that when the models do that they never verify. Just keeps his followers on the edges of their seats while the clock ticks. I'm sure they still will be when the final buzzer sounds and the game is called that is winter.
pcbjr
Member
1) I agree
2) My point with a chuckle was --- which is more reliable - JB or CFSv2?
3) I think all would be better served if I really stuck with my Lenten vow of not posting (so hard to do, but probably better for all) ...
Jon
Member
FWIW ...
Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
Some big names throwing out 1962 now, I been screaming that for the last week or so. The pattern evolution is almost identical, IMO. It’s hard to get any better than this....
tennessee storm
Member
jb saying 1962... lmao yeah right....
Jon
Member
I’m finding it hard to believe the -NAO won’t happen. All signs are screaming -NAO to start March. I have yet to hear a reason other than that models have predicted them in the past and they don’t form....the models also have predicted them in the past many times and they’ve formed, many times.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
Kylo
Member
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Give me a -EPO and a -NAO in winter and I will take my chances.
dsaur
Member
I've always loved March. I've seen some great times in March. People who give up on winter in Feb. are crazy. They just haven't lived long enough to see good Marches. Just because I'm slapping mosquitoes already, and my blue berries are blooming, doesn't tell me a thing about MarchJon,
Whatever happens, as always, you have me piqued.
Thanks, Man!
Gawd am I glad you're over here sharing the wealth!
Best!
Phil
BTW - Regrettably or not, I'm old enough to remember '62 ...
I'm almost 50.. I've seen one utterly incredible March, the rest, meh. But damn, that one time... so amazing. Yeah, you know which March I'm talkin' 'bout.
gawxnative
Member
Well I ve got you + 10, and I ve seen 5 crazy ones
Winter 1983, and 1993
Severe 1975, 1998,and 2008
yeah, for some reason GA seems to fair better in nutty Marches... Knoxville northeast into the mountains is another story... I gauge my March love on snow/cold not severe. I hate tornadoes personally. Just my little quirk. I grew up in central Texas and spent an entire childhood in fear/awe of massive tornadic thunderstorms. And April 2011 cured me of my last vestige of interest in that weather phenomenon.
tennessee storm
Member
1962. Year I Popped out my mother lol. So great yearJon,
Whatever happens, as always, you have me piqued.
Thanks, Man!
Gawd am I glad you're over here sharing the wealth!
Best!
Phil
BTW - Regrettably or not, I'm old enough to remember '62 ...
tennessee storm
Member
March is a vilotale month. But I gauge it on severe weather it’s spring met. Month.
gawxnative
Member
Well 06 GFS will get the convo going for a bit.. Long range hope....
Kylo
Member
GEFS for last week of February into the first week of March.
A +PNA has a significantly stronger correlation
to SE cold, especially in FL and GA, than the less reliable -EPO, which has a correlation to cold that is stronger in the Midwest than in the SE. Keep this in mind: the EPO has been negative all month and is projected to remain that way through 2/23. Yet, we're having the first or second warmest Feb since 1879 in much of the SE! That wouldn't be the case with a +PNA, which we don't have this month. It will end up a pretty solid -PNA.
Give me a +PNA with anything and I will take my chances.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Eh to some people it felt like this year the EPO was driving things through January.
Kylo
Member
It was, along with a -AO.
Last winter month where we had a stout -PNA with a west based -NAO/-EPO combo was December 2010.
pcbjr
Member
1000+ "Likes" ...
Kylo
Member
2012, 2016, 2017 were all positive +PNA winters and were blowtorches. +PNA by itself doesn't always equal cold for the southeast, far from it.
No single index is anywhere near always correlated to SE cold. I'm talking overall correlation based on data going back to 1950 as opposed to it always meaning a cold SE. This isn't just me saying this. This is what the data says. On average, a +PNA has been more correlated to SE cold than a -EPO. A west coast ridge is much more often than not a good thing if you want cold. Some -EPOs don't also have a +PNA ridge. A -EPO
is more highly correlated to a cold Midwest than it is to a cold SE. OTOH, a +PNA is more highly correlated to a cold SE than it is to a cold Midwest.
Keep in mind that I'm talking averages of all of the winters since 1950-1.
Jon
Member
Off the charts.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like we torch until early March for now, and there is indeed a trend colder. 6Z GEFS looked like a good cooldown. Question is, when will it actually happen and will it lock in? I'm just going to wait until early March.
Jon
Member
Yep. Based on the evolution of this strong west based -NAO it would have no choice but to tank beforehand
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Off the charts.
Does anyone know or does it bother anyone why these WxBell charts show the op GFS and Euro models day 10 forecasts with a -4 to -5 NAO and yet the GEFS forecast mean is down to only -0.70? Furthermore, the most negative member of said ensemble is down only to about -1.7. Something is way off.
Kylo
Member
Agreed, no single index. There are multiple combinations that drive cold into the SE, a +PNA doesn’t always equal cold nor does a -NAO. But a -PNA doesn’t always mean warm and snowless. We all remember Feb 2014, great event with a -PNA.
Jon
Member
Did you clear your cache Larry? Ens mean is almost -5 here...
Here’s 00z GEFS from NOAA, -4
And weatherbell 00z GEFS....
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