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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

To be fair, the HRRR is swinging wildly all over the place, too, and yet people post it a lot during the storm. According to it last night, I should be blanked but it's been pouring snow here for two hours. ⛄
I guess it got it right here, though. Just sucks that the globals and NAM are useless when it comes to specifics and you can only halfway depend on the HRRR and 3K NAM maybe 12 hours out. But even now the current 3K NAM run just showed this, and it's nowhere close to what's going to happen here.

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The approaching trough and deep-layer cold air from the west is a ton meeting resistance from the warm advection being supplied by the mesolow over Columbia SC right now. This leads to insane low level frontogenesis and convergence over the Western Piedmont of Nc.

The end result of this “war” between these 2 clashing air masses with additional deep-layer support for ascent from the trough, is an insane “death” band of extremely heavy snow

I’m happy I get to live vicariously through everyone here that’s getting to witness this all-time snow event in the SW Piedmont & Charlotte

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Absolutely no reason to get one's hopes up about anything in Raleigh. You wre just gonna get burned every single time. I committed the punishable offense of having even an ounce of belief in a 5-8 inch snow storm here in Raleigh. Yet, here we are. I'm really happy that this has been a crush job for everyone else but it has been such a disappointment at home base. Type of thing that makes you want to stop tracking this stuff entirely. Unbelievable.
 
Talk about riding the line! LolView attachment 192763
I’m right there with ya. I’ve held a steady rate for the past 2 hours now but the flakes keep switching between decently sized and very tiny - and knowing how close I am to the edge of glory right now has me nervous but I just gotta let it ride and see how far we can hold on here in Durham
 
When is the snow shield over me going to be deactivated?
Man It looks like 5 30 to 8, but northern wake county up, its light sauce till 9. Really really hate this for yall. I expected less accums, but light qpf, not 0 flakage. Just no lift in a 40 mile wide stretch /transfer zone. Like you getting subsidence from both sides
 
I’m right there with ya. I’ve held a steady rate for the past 2 hours now but the flakes keep switching between decently sized and very tiny - and knowing how close I am to the edge of glory right now has me nervous but I just gotta let it ride and see how far we can hold on here in Durham
Same here. We just gotta hope we can hold on to this a lot of the afternoon, and then catch the coastal later. Not sure that's particularly likely, but eh...
 
Snow has officially ended here in Toccoa GA, I have recorded 7.2-7.5" inches overall. Here are some photos and videos of the storm, primarily during that final squall which dumped an additional 3-4 inches the last 2 hours.
 

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From this location in Durham there is a tall tower in front of me. Can’t even see the tower a mile away.
LOL, I know that intersection. I used to live right there (now I am 5-10 mins away across I-40 in NE Chapel Hill). That's impressive since that tower is certainly within a mile of that location.
 
Winds are starting to kick up a bit too. And when it does, you can't see 100 yards in front of you! I thought we might get a couple hours of heavy snow here, but I never imagined it would be like this during the middle of the day

Watching BIL's Ring camera from old town Beaufort is wild. Can't tell accumulation but it's heavy looking at visibility across the street.
 
The approaching trough and deep-layer cold air from the west is a ton meeting resistance from the warm advection being supplied by the mesolow over Columbia SC right now. This leads to insane low level frontogenesis and convergence over the Western Piedmont of Nc.

The end result of this “war” between these 2 clashing air masses with additional deep-layer support for ascent from the trough, is an insane “death” band of extremely heavy snow

I’m happy I get to live vicariously through everyone here that’s getting to witness this all-time snow event in the SW Piedmont & Charlotte

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Thoughts on Raleigh?
 
The approaching trough and deep-layer cold air from the west is a ton meeting resistance from the warm advection being supplied by the mesolow over Columbia SC right now. This leads to insane low level frontogenesis and convergence over the Western Piedmont of Nc.

The end result of this “war” between these 2 clashing air masses with additional deep-layer support for ascent from the trough, is an insane “death” band of extremely heavy snow

I’m happy I get to live vicariously through everyone here that’s getting to witness this all-time snow event in the SW Piedmont & Charlotte

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Suppose no chance this moves a bit east? Cause this borderline feels personal at this point in CNC😂
 
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