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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

I finally saw my first flakes from this storm near Lake Wheeler south of Raleigh, the snowless capital of North Carolina. We are basically stuck in the middle with this bimodal low and unless the coastal low overperforms we will not see the totals many of the forecasting agencies were predicting.
 
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GaWx said:
Congrats!

My friends to your NW a few miles S of Mall of GA just said they have 1” and still snowing!
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Thanks!

The rates have lessened a bit, but I'm still squarely in the band that extends 25-30 dBZ returns up through Gwinnett County.

Hope this band visits you later today. Patience, I'm holding onto it for as long as I can!
 
Triad really close to being one of the bullseyes based on latest HRRR

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Its wild how well defined these bands are. The sun is out over my building and no snow falling at the moment, across the freeway, I can see snow falling at GA Tech and slowly moving this way as the clouds push the sun back out. Weather is so geeking me out today lol.
 
Went up to Buford and roads were covered with moderate snow falling—probably 1.5” or so near the Mall of Georgia.

Pretty sharp cutoff too—I-85 at Pleasant Hill had dusting at most.

Some flurries still here in Alpharetta, but looks like we might have drawn the short straw in terms of meaningful accumulations.
 
Zbrown59091 said:
Went up to Buford and roads were covered with moderate snow falling—probably 1.5” or so near the Mall of Georgia.

Pretty sharp cutoff too—I-85 at Pleasant Hill had dusting at most.

Some flurries still here in Alpharetta, but looks like we might have drawn the short straw in terms of meaningful accumulations.
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Yeah it's very banded which is to be expected with these ULL systems especially if the ULL goes on top of you rather than to the south and west of your backyard.
 
Per Greg Fishel (his latest)

I have to be very careful the way I word this. As I have stated from the beginning with this storm, it's not a textbook case. There are a lot of unique qualities and idiosyncrasies that are causing a lot of meteorologists, including myself, to tear their hair out! The general consensus is that the higher the resolution of a model, the better the forecast. And a lot of times that's true. It's like taking a picture of houses on the other side of a lake. The lower resolution camera will see 4 houses as 1, while the higher resolution camera will see all 4 houses clearly. But sometimes, as a former colleague of mine once said, higher resolution forecasts lead to more detailed errors! it is true that the high resolution guidance is killing this event for the Triangle. But the actual observations across the state are already contrasting with what these models are showing. Sometimes you have to take a step back and think about the meteorology and not just regurgitate model output. Having said that, could I be wrong with my 4-7? Sure could. But even if that happens, I will not change the way I forecast the weather. If my job was solely to read a map and share those numbers with you, how much value do I have? I would hope you would expect me to go beyond that and attempt to add a human element to my forecast. So I'm sticking to my guns. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. With the kind of solid to liquid ratios we're looking at, were not gonna need a ton of precipitation to achieve those totals. Time will tell. Thanks for reading. I'm making this post public so as many people as possible can find out about the product I offer here.
 
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