Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[griteater]

this is charlotte’s storm.

View attachment 192112

That means @Frosty will end up with the most snow

 

[Shaggy]

Anyone have the euro ens snow mean since it's qpf increased?

 

[Stormsfury]

Any update on the the KCLX radar? It still seems to be down…

It is down, they were hoping to have it back up today.

 

[NWG_WX14]

Wondering if this makes it to Wake Forest or Youngsville


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18z NAM had it accumulating in wake county lol

 

[Snowfan]

Snowband (virga?) firing up near Chattanooga.

 

[bouncycorn]

My forecast for Georgia largely remains the same.

I’m not buying the mega-band across metro Atlanta. It is the result of a recognized HRRR/ECMWF wind bias here, increasing low level convergence.

We shall see!

 

[chase223322]

Guys.. this is a now thing. Radar is lighting up in the Carolinas. WAY ahead of schedule. My buddy said it snowing in rock hill. Yall enjoy it. It’s a now thing. Bump the models. We rage

Happy for you Mitch! You deserve it more than anybody!

 

[weather bubba]

The Weather Channel has sent correspondents to Charlotte and Duck in North Carolina. I guess they believe in the dry slot over the Triangle, they didn't send here.

 

[Crow]

Snowing at the Vance/Granville line at I85

 

[Tokenfreak]

It is down, they were hoping to have it back up today.

So we most likely won’t have it in time for tomorrow it sounds like then. Bummer.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Is an area of forcing revealing itself already? If so, I’m in the birther region

 

[Sandbar]

Shifts the highest snows from central NC eastward.

Final kuchera:
View attachment 192123

So looking at this layout and it looks to my very untrained eye like the WRAL in house model that was shown earlier perhaps? Obviously just one of many options we are seeing.

 

[griteater]

Anyone have the euro ens snow mean since it's qpf increased?

 

[Tarheel1]

38 degrees in Greenville!! That gonna get into the low 20s 20:1 ratios?? Or is this warmer than expected?

 

[JalenW25]

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[NWG_WX14]

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For the triangle that radar seems very similar to the Baron in house model WRAL posted.

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 192075
For the few interested in the Coastal Empire, this is WTOCs GRAF latest totals. Probably best case scenario.

That 2.36” for SAV on this GRAF is higher than just about any run of any model that I’ve seen the last few days with the exception of maybe a run of the CMC. So, I agree that this is about the best case scenario, and one can see that it’s due to very narrow bands that happens to go over SAV without drying out too much as they move SE. That’s what any location needs to well exceed expectations. Notice that amounts drop off very sharply in every direction only 10-20 miles away. I’m guessing that the odds of actually 2-2.5” in any one location in this area are ~5% as long as other models don’t start upping their qpf. The much better bet is for 0.5-1.0”.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Packsox03]

For the triangle that radar seems very similar to the Baron in house model WRAL posted.

Baron model seemed bullish here too. Hope we reel this one in

 

[Sctvman]

 

[rburrel2]

Yessir, if it doesn’t favor you, then trash it right?

No. You trash the sref mean bc its highly inaccurate and antiquated, and when it shows something that disagrees with consensus it’s always wrong.that’s been proven yet again here. Unless you think central Virginia is getting a foot tomorrow.

 

[superjames1992]

I learned this lesson long ago, you probably knew too… but here’s another classic example of why you should give the sref mean 0% consideration in the future. It’s 100% trash and worthless.

It’s not my favorite model br any means, but doesn’t the NWS use it pretty heavily?

 

[k0skinne]

That 2.36” for SAV on this GRAF is higher than just about any run of any model that I’ve seen the last few days with the exception of maybe a run of the CMC. So, I agree that this is about the best case scenario, and one can see that it’s due to very narrow bands that happens to go over SAV without drying out too much as they move SE. That’s what any location needs to well exceed expectations. Notice that amounts drop off very sharply in every direction only 10-20 miles away. I’m guessing that the odds of actually 2-2.5” in any one location in this area are ~5% as long as other models don’t start upping their qpf. The much better bet is for 0.5-1.0”.

Pulling for you and all the Savannah area posters!!

 

[rduwx]

Baron model seemed bullish here too. Hope we reel this one in

I had to go look it up. Lol! It has snow coming into the Raleigh area around 1:45am.

 

[Makeitsnow]

definitely a head start on moisture. hrrr shows a lot of breaks in cloud cover where there is returns on radar and cloud cover over north ga is ahead of schedule.

 

[Packsox03]

I had to go look it up. Lol! It has snow coming into the Raleigh area around 1:45am. View attachment 192140

Persistent banding here and it only goes till tomorrow early afternoon

 

[Lordhelmit]

I had to go look it up. Lol! It has snow coming into the Raleigh area around 1:45am. View attachment 192140

TWC app's future radar has it showing up in Raleigh around that time too. I know I know it's TWC, but still

 

[Showmeyourtds]

definitely a head start on moisture. hrrr shows a lot of breaks in cloud cover where there is returns on radar and cloud cover over north ga is ahead of schedule. View attachment 192139

View attachment 192138

Full moon & stars are out here

 

[dogwoods]

TWC app's future radar has it showing up in Raleigh around that time too. I know I know it's TWC, but still

At this point I'll take any good news...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@jackendrickwx CJ got me in the 6-8”

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

@jackendrickwx CJ got me in the 6-8” View attachment 192141

Hopefully you get some good snow over there. Hoping we get some here too, been a good while since either of us have gotten a good real snow.

 

[jackendrickwx]

@jackendrickwx CJ got me in the 6-8” View attachment 192141

I’m sitting here unable to focus on the show I’m watching because I keep having horrible visions of 6-10” 5 miles south of me.

 

[JalenW25]

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[JalenW25]

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

23 degrees and snowing at noon in the south is an all timer. Doesn’t even matter how much snow you get. Enjoy

 

[Parker]

Column is definitely saturated now. It’s a heavy snow now but flakes are small. Heavy dusting on all surfaces. Gonna be a hell of a snow in the mountains!

 

[NBAcentel]

This is just wild stuff

 

[DopplerWx]

This is just wild stuff View attachment 192144

The cae nws video posted earlier really harped on how unbelievable this setup is, never seen before.

 

[JQPublic]

OBS Thread Soon? @SD

 

[Triplephase93]

Flakes flying in Hixson Tn at 33 degrees. Chattanooga finds away to flub even the little Precip we get