most now-casty storm i've ever seen. can't help but sit back and laugh. in order to stay sane it is imperative you maintain the same exasperated "what next" attitude clark griswold has on national lampoon's christmas vacation. at this point we just got the "bonus"
I try to look at which models have been the most consistent, too. Euro has jumped around more than the others. It had some of the same big totals as the GFS, ICON, Canadian and NAM, but hasn't been as consistent as those. I know people say the Euro is the king, but sometimes it looks like it just jumps around and throws different outcomes at the wall to see if one sticks and then people say it was right.
Definitely interested in this! There is a chance Tampa could set their all-time snowfall record (0.2") if the streamer sets up right! Florida doubled their all-time snowfall record with last year's Gulf Coast Blizzard, so why not?
I can't remember an event within 18 hours of start that had this big a spread...the butterfly effect.
It makes you wonder what the point of these last few days was, if it's <24 hours before it starts and I might know less than ever about what's going to happen. I guess I could default to "trust the experts" and NWS RAH's 4-7" Winter Storm Warning for here, and honestly that seems like a pretty reasonable prediction at this point.
Yeah I noticed that. That is a trend we need to see heading toward home.
Using what I saw last night in a tweet from ContentWXGuy I thought I'd take a stab and seeing where the upper air players are at currently. This is what I'm thinking it's at rn lmk if this is wrong. SW1 is lead shortwave and 2 is the main Shortwave
I think 6 to 8 is reasonable now looking at all the data, and could end up more. Maybe the model showing the least amount ends up right and it is a lot less, but that would be ignoring all the other models and totals, and just going with the least amount for the sake of going with the least amount.
This is pseudo-wishcasting, but if we go with the assumption that warm noses will always overperform, then it kind of follows that we could expect the warm front to be on the northern side of guidance (or even further north). Of course, that doesn't always happen and may not here.
This will be a great test.
Ruffus is much further north with the 5h low track when compared to the Euro/Euro AI/ GFS AI/3km NAM/Rgem. I'd use it with extreme caution.
I actually completely disagree. It's all about whether the coastal low tracks along the gulf stream or not. 12z 3km NAM had better tilt at H5 and much drier outcome over central NC because it placed the coastal low further offshore.
you and i have been lockstep in this detail. totally agree.
easy 55+ at ridgetops. best spots (grandfather mtn, maybe leconte or mitchell) will get 70+
The 12z HRRR is the only CAM missing that.
Hopefully its wrong but prob not. As it transfers or pulls out the side will get dry slotted pretty fast. But if it slows just off the coast it would likely be enhanced instead....stay tuned
