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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Wild Weather Monger said:
Good morning, all.

I wake up a bit aggravated for N. Georgia this AM. The overnight models have ticked east with the precip here rather than an expansion westward as hoped for. At this point, while I'd love to see a reversal of this overnight trend to bring Atlanta better into the game, now I'm hoping we don't lose this any further east. The hoped-for west-central Tennessee to Macon track of the 500MB now appears completely off the table.

Hopefully, trends come back westward today now that the main players are well within the ROAB network.
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it looks like it goes from atlanta to macon to savannah.

1hrrr.pngatlanta.png
 
Similar events with high ratio snows in Raleigh produced 12:1 and 15:1. Not sure last time Raleigh had a 20:1 ratio snow but I know we just generally accept that it’s happening for this event.

Both Jan events were cold upper lows too.

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KyloG said:
Similar events with high ratio snows in Raleigh produced 12:1 and 15:1. Not sure last time Raleigh had a 20:1 ratio snow but I know we just generally accept that it’s happening for this event.

Both Jan and event were cold upper lows too.

View attachment 191735
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This upper low is projected to be a top tier lowest heights record challenger though. 20:1 ratios being thrown around thru the forecast offices even in Charleston still
 
chapelhillwx said:
6z HRRR has some decent snow into Atlanta proper, 2" type deal - 0z had almost nothing.
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HRRR has the meso low deformation band right over MBY, as opposed to the model consensus that the feature is further east. It puts down 6" here in an incredibly narrow path. Talk about a nail-biter!
 
dry air at the sfc is not something you see overmodeled much imo but part of me wants to say it could be for ULL-favored folks. i mean this is deep forcing if you click around on hrrr soundings, not just waiting on upglide at 290K or whatever. I'm sure there will be pockets/banding/winners/losers still, and I hesitate given my previous "dry air not overmodeled" statement

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Screenshot from NWS Atlanta winter webpage (weather.gov/ffc/winter). For North Georgia, this is my near-term focus: Getting 1” of snow and resulting impacts considering the recent cold weather, the Arctic air coinciding with precip, the likelihood of accumulations starting quickly on roads upon precip onset.

In this setup, and this point was repeated in the past two FFC briefings, all it’s going to take is 1” for significant disruptions to begin.

My takeaway: several inches of snow is awesome, but it ain’t gonna take much for impacts to be felt across a wide swath of North Georgia.

—30—
 
Parker said:
NWS calling for 3-7 tonight and 3-7 tomorrow for us just outside of Gatlinburg. Still some snow on the ground from Sunday. Beautiful up here. Look forward to the OBS thread. Happy for Mitch and all the Carolina folks. View attachment 191704
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Heck yeah. Enjoy and be safe brother.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like the NAM and HRRR have trended further offshore and weaker with the coastal low so far on the 12z runs after steady improvements yesterday across most models.
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Surprising on the NAM -- I'm only out to 24 hours, but the ULL looks to be slightly stronger and with slightly better tilt.
 
And now the coastal low is looking better. I may have been hasty in my previous comment.
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