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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

I don't know how I feel about being in the 19" potential zone on the BOOM map. I could see my area being part of the dryslot more so than the jackpot.
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2nd paragraph from NWS Winter Weather discussion from 3:15 today might explain why they are bullish on totals. I'm no meteorologist though just lurking and learning on here.


By 12Z Saturday, most guidance is in agreement that the 500mb
shortwave takes on a more neutral tilt (oriented N-S) over the TN
Valley and becomes a closed low over GA. PVA becomes maximized
over the Southeast while a surface low spawns along a coastal
front east of the Carolinas. As the 850mb low deepens over northern
GA and heads east into SC, easterly 850mb theta-e advection will
direct low-level moisture around the 850mb low and support a band
of moderate-to-heavy snow from northern GA to central SC. Farther
north, the same tongue of 850mb theta-e is funneling along the
850mb front to the north of the 850mb low track from northern SC
on east through the heart of NC. This is where the deformation zone
is likely to form, pivoting over central NC and northern SC with
1-2"/hr snowfall rates likely. This band of heavy snow is likely to
ensue farther east into southeast VA, where 700mb FGEN is more
ideally placed to support strong vertical velocities within a fully
saturated DGZ. Similar to NC, look for intense bands of heavy snow
over southeast VA to form late Saturday afternoon and persist into
Saturday night. These bands of heavy snow in eastern NC and
southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturday
afternoon and evening. It is here where not only are 2"/hr snowfall
rates achievable, but so is the likelihood for thundersnow. The
intense vertical velocities in eastern NC and southeast VA may
result in some subsidence in north-central NC and south-central VA.
Snowfall is still likely to reach warning criteria, but these
regions are potentially susceptible to lesser snowfall amounts as
they are caught between the influence of the strong upper-low to
the south, and the strengthening coastal low.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The big band on the RGEM over east-central NC basically sets up where the elevated warm front stalls out ahead of our upper trough.

Very interesting 🤔
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Helps greatly that the upper low is so far south and providing some upper level diffluence over that region.
 
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SandySpringswx said:
Atlanta is now under a Watch and possibly 2 inches of snow. Where'd that come from?
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Not entirely sure to be honest. Decent Euro runs overnight & some of the other Ops were supportive in my opinion...but just as soon as those were placed by FFC, most of the 18z op & SR models have backed away.

Full disclosure- I haven't had a chance to look at much of the AI output or any of the Ensemble products...and oh yeah, I'm just a weather hobbyist- not a meteorologist.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Not entirely sure to be honest. Decent Euro runs overnight & some of the other Ops were supportive in my opinion...but just as soon as those were placed by FFC, most of the 18z op & SR models have backed away.

Full disclosure- I haven't had a chance to look at much of the AI output or any of the Ensemble products...and oh yeah, I'm just a weather hobbyist- not a meteorologist.
Click to expand...
It seems from their video this afternoon that they feel like the RGEM is depicting the most likely scenario for the metro, and the forecast/WSW is reflective of that. We shall see - I'll believe it when I see it.
 
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