foothillscrewzone
Member
Can you compare with 00z?
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Stop playing with me GSP
Thats .5 qpf. at 18-20:1 ratio, that would net you roughly 7.5-8 inches, minimum
Bigedd09
Member
Fwiw hrrr looking better
Cary_Snow95
Member
Didn’t bouncy corn state that while it says 10:1 google actually processes using dynamic ratios
Brother
Packsox03
Member
Showing those super heavy bands but precip looks better than 12z run
Bigedd09
Member
Not sure but if it shows 0.50 liquid on you then shows 4-6 inches of snow that's 10:1 and everyone has said it won't be 10:1 ratios
This is very bullish, maybe they are seeing more potential than we are. However, I would forecast RAH to be in the 5-8" range so its within my forecast
It says 10:1, but I added a slightly dynamic ratio where very cold temps get 12:1.. but we're looking at ratios of 20:1 in some areas.
By the way, SLR is really complex and is far from an exact science!
Tsappfrog20
Member
So Allan just did a chat on his patreon page and he says he still believes the triangle get between 4-6 inches
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Bigedd09
Member
not at all. but brad p posted it earlier so maybe it's not as bad as i think it is
On this release RAH bumped Raleigh to 9" of expected snow. 11am had it at 8" of expected snow
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High Resolution Rapid Refresh. It runs updated to current conditions every hour. It’s value is more inside 12 hours
No, that's 2 cases!
DT crayola Art Call Map
BrickTamland
Member
The end of the HRRR at 48.
YVille1128
Member
It's almost like they're doing more than living and dying by the latest NAM, HRRR, or GRAF. These folks went to school for a reason. Anyone can hug a model. Some mets don't help themselves by posting individual runs (for good or ill) on social media.
Mpirone12
Member
2PM Saturday and 4 inches in the triad. I’ll take that
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Latest GRAF for North Georgia
NBAcentel
Member
A once in a lifetime sounding for CLT probably. Snow growth zone almost down to the surface 
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’ll be curious to read the RAH afternoon discussion because I’m genuinely confused what they are seeing that we aren’t. That low end map is mind boggling to me
Any chance they showed it further southeast?
Packsox03
Member
That does get lost a little bit. I saw the drying trend on the models but these folks do know our microclimate and model biases and a great forecaster doesn’t solely rely on model output
Meteorology v/s Modelology
Highest forecasted wind gust from Rah is 28 mph at GSO.
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WSNC
Member
Maps must be automated based on NBM since they only mention 2 to 6 in latest discussion from 2pm.
Not sure, a family member sent that to me.
PDubRDU
Member
Not bad for 1pm Sat. About half-way thru the storm and before the surface LP really kicks
Somebody mentioned the "stacked low" on this thread earlier in response to my post about the potential fujiwhara effect of the developing coastal. Could have some decent yields
Tsappfrog20
Member
Latest nam has snow break out in NC Friday night
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this is so far off from the 9" the NWS is forecasting for the Triangle currently. I personally think this is a more realistic bet (2-6 in.) but am surprised to see them so divergent
Cary_Snow95
Member
Hmm
BrickTamland
Member
I think folks are shy about pulling the trigger and being conservative with amounts here. 6 to 8 seems conservative to me based on the majority of models.