Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[NBAcentel]

I made a first call map for fun… it’s a first call and will 100% need adjustments, especially when mesoscale models fall into range with better consensus towards the synoptic scale pattern, but I’m to excited not to make one. Here’s what I got right now. I think the hardest part right now is VA/SE VA. The cutoff is gonna be brutal

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

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[HDGator]

GFS Ensemble Mean. Still strong.

 

[WxBlue]

I am nervous to see mesoscale models come into the play here. There will be huge booms and busts with the banding. Can be the difference between 4" and 16".

 

[Ross]

GFS Ensemble Mean. Still strong.
View attachment 191015

Finding it interesting gefs consistently gives me a nice thump and dc real snow while entire globals are leaving me dry

 

[xshare]

Finding it interesting gefs consistently gives me a nice thump and dc real snow while entire globals are leaving me dry

Same here in the reverse, GFS suite (besides AI) consistently blanking Atlanta, while GEM suite consistently giving us a reasonable score. Over and over.

 

[NBAcentel]

Finding it interesting gefs consistently gives me a nice thump and dc real snow while entire globals are leaving me dry

There’s gonna be a brutally sharp cutoff somewhere around there, I think the GFS could have a better idea of a more expansive shield here…. Could be wrong but that’s my 2 cents

 

[mx3gsr92]

I am nervous to see mesoscale models come into the play here. There will be huge booms and busts with the banding. Can be the difference between 4" and 16".

There are parts of SE VA that go from 2" to 12" in the distance I could hit a golf ball. .

 

[Pilotwx]

I wish we had message boards in 96....
well now i feel old

We did it was called CASI Central Atlantic Storm Investigators . Showing my age, Dr Dewpoint (Joe A) and Joe Bastardi headed it up or were the main content drivers.

 

[SENC]

I know everyone is mesmerized by the snow maps. I love seeing the cotton candy pink over me, lol. But we have a pretty good consensus on the highest impact areas. QPF totals are going to rise and fall based mostly on our ULL.. no overrunning, or GOM low to track. All about moisture transport as a low bombs off the SE coastline. Going to be some heavy snow bands as the coastal bombs out.. watching the 850mb low track will be important as well.

Which, turns out too be WAA & Dry (Slots), temp(s) about 33F & change, for US that reside on the beaches..

 

[Btownheel]

I wish we had message boards in 96....
well now i feel old

I was 12. Damn near watched TWC all night the night before.


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[weather nerd]

Misc - General Banter Thread

Is 7” good? I wouldn't know...I haven't seen 7" since 2002. Not sure how that would even work...

southernwx.com

 

[Pack83]

I wish we had message boards in 96....
well now i feel old

Wright weather was my 1st. Don’t recall the years.

 

[griteater]

UKMet Loops

 

[Sctvman]

 

[NBAcentel]

The 00z/12z thing continues

 

[griteater]

From earlier - 18z WeatherNext loop

 

[griteater]

18z WeatherNext - temperatures during the precip

20 degrees and snowing in Raleigh at 1pm Saturday with no cold air damming. What planet is this?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

00z Euro is mauling SC

 

[griteater]

00z Euro AI Loop

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

KING with its own idea! WOW!

 

[griteater]

Euro loop

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That coastal was moving quick

 

[griteater]

KING with its own idea! WOW! View attachment 191028

You can tell on the loop that the Euro is really spinny there thru central Carolinas - 500mb / 700mb closed lows

 

[jeremyt]

Still waiting, stuck at hour 57 on Pivotal.

 

[WxBlue]

Word of caution... we'll need keep the dry air in mind. It has the potential to screw over the storm for a lot of people. Brad P and Fishel have both brought this up tonight.

 

[superjames1992]

00z Euro precip looks solid. Don't have Kuchera snow maps yet. Fayetteville bullseye @Webberweather53 ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z

00z

Big jump from euro at the 11th hour

 

[jeremyt]

00z Euro precip looks solid. Don't have Kuchera snow maps yet.

View attachment 191034

A lot more QPF that run! I'd take it.

 

[griteater]

Euro has locked in well over last 6 runs. Just wobbling

 

[NBAcentel]

Piedmont Nuke

 

[jeremyt]

Through early Sunday morning.

 

[mx3gsr92]

Word of caution... we'll need keep the dry air in mind. It has the potential to screw over the storm for a lot of people. Brad P and Fishel have both brought this up tonight.View attachment 191035

This cannot be overstated. Dry air will impact someone and maybe a lot. .

 

[superjames1992]

Getting Kuchera now and it's...insane.

 

[Stormsfury]

Euro has locked in well over last 6 runs. Just wobbling

View attachment 191036

Can I get fries and a banana pudding milkshake with that? This upper low may set some lowest heights records down here in the SC Lowcountry. No joke.

 

[weather nerd]

This cannot be overstated. Dry air will impact someone and maybe a lot. .

these models, like the euro account for it. im betting a lot of the "rain" on early returns is from moisture not quite in the DGZ yet

 

[HDGator]

Keep on Rockin'

 

[superjames1992]

It's interesting how the 00z Euro completely shafts the PGV area where other modeling has 12-24" in this same area. Details that remain to be worked out as it's too early to say where the screwjobs will happen.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It's interesting how the 00z Euro completely shafts the PGV area where other modeling has 12-24" in this same area. Details that remain to be worked out as it's too early to say where the screwjobs will happen.

View attachment 191041

Brutal skip toward the Coastal plain

 

[jeremyt]

It's interesting how the 00z Euro completely shafts the PGV area where other modeling has 12-24" in this same area. Details that remain to be worked out as it's too early to say where the screwjobs will happen.

View attachment 191041

Is that due to phasing between the ULL and the SL?