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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

disassociated_vort said:
qpf really dropped off on the midnight releases from the nws compared to maps posted earlier in the day. judging by these digital snow angels y'all are making over here i'm guessing it's going to rebound in the morning and this was using data from the 18z runs. i went ahead and pulled CAE and ILM too. valid through 7pm saturday.

shoutout to the relative min. north of greenville, sc that has been getting some attention earlier in the chat.
View attachment 191050View attachment 191051View attachment 191052
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Please understand those maps only forecast snow through 7pm on Saturday. The storm will not be over by then.
 
griteater said:
It’s a highly, highly anomalous setup for us down south. But you can see here how the layer from 600mb up to 300mb dries out (those maps are covering 300mb to 700mb RH), but the full dendrite growth zone is moist because it’s so much lower than normal in this cold environment. I always say that if a storm doesn’t have enough moisture to saturate the DGZ, it’s not worth a nickel. Think we should be fine here

View attachment 191042
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It would be a good example to watch for the future. So, you wouldn't be concerned with the winds at that level?
 
wxdaniel said:
It would be a good example to watch for the future. So, you wouldn't be concerned with the winds at that level?
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If you are referring to the wind barbs on that map, it looks like those are wind speed and direction averaged for an expansive layer from 700mb up to 300mb, but regardless, I don’t see anything to be concerned about with those winds, no
 
superjames1992 said:
Please understand those maps only forecast snow through 7pm on Saturday. The storm will not be over by then.
Click to expand...
i tried to be a responsible wx weenie and include when the maps are valid through 🥲 the 7-day qpf also went down. i personally like comparing the humans to the machines so consume at your own risk i suppose
 
ILM WFO strikes first!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
150 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
291800-
/O.NEW.KILM.WS.A.0002.260131T0600Z-260201T2100Z/
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New
Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Coastal
Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern
Horry-
Including the cities of Boiling Spring Lakes, Florence,
Masonboro, Surf City, Hartsville, Socastee, Murrells Inlet,
Little River, North Hartsville, Long Beach, Kingstree, Conway,
McColl, Loris, Bucksport, Aynor, Tabor City, Bladenboro,
Wilmington, Dillon, Whiteville, Southport, Carolina Beach, Green
Sea, Elizabethtown, Andrews, Mullins, Georgetown, Sunset Beach,
Ogden, North Myrtle Beach, Bennettsville, Lumberton, Burgaw,
Garden City, Chadbourn, Oak Island, Myrtle Grove, Leland,
Darlington, Marion, Lake Waccamaw, Myrtle Beach, Longs, Seagate,
and Shallotte
150 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
amounts.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

III
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Grit, do you recall how closely the ULL bowling ball March 2nd, 2009 storm compares to this one? I recall the ULL may have closed off earlier, and that one had a strong 850 low in middle Ga.
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It closed off much earlier, way back in the Pacific NW on Feb 26th. In the SE, as strong as it was, it was still a whopping 20 dm weaker than the upcoming one is projected to be (~543 vs ~523)!
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Message from KGSP: 1:30 AM What remains the subject of much consternation is QPF. After multiple model cycles in which the overall trend in deterministic guidance was toward a snowier scenario for the CWA, 00Z guidance has generally come in with a bit lighter QPF. Ensemble guidance also provides plenty of ammo to give one pause as to the potential lack of QPF problem undercutting snowfall potential...especially across the western half of the area. The main issue as we see it is that much of the precip potential for this event would be dependent upon how quickly the mid-level deformation zone matures as the upper low passes near/over the CWA early Saturday. In general...deformation zone precip regions can be underwhelming (and under performing of guidance) in terms of precip production. We have therefore generally sided with the lower side of the guidance envelopefor QPF, especially across our western half.

I was under the impression the 00Z QPF up ticked across KGSP CWA?
 
0z was more or less a hold around the triangle. Run to run noise is all I really saw. One concern: dryslot. Otherwise, nothing that doesn’t support double digit snows across the majority of NC.

Some runs coming up will be wetter. Others drier.

First call amounts (id call this 40th percentile outcome):
Raleigh: 6-10”
Charlotte: 4-7”
Greensboro: 5-8”
Greenville, NC: 8-12”
Fayetteville: 6-12”
Columbia: 3-6”
GSP: 4-6”
 
GSP WFO just issued a Watch for their entire CWA. I'd imagine RAH WFO will do so tonight, as well.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches east of I-26. Total accumulations between 2 and 4 inches
across the remainder of the area. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate
South Carolina.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may
produce scattered power outages due to the weight of the snow on
tree limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree
branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to rapidly stick to roads
and other surfaces due to temperatures in the 20s. Travel
conditions could deteriorate rapidly as early as Friday evening.
Very gusty winds on Saturday could result in areas of blowing
snow, causing very poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

Lane


EDIT: And Blacksburg:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
8 inches possible with the highest amounts south of Route 460.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest
Virginia, and Mercer County in southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult during Friday and the
upcoming weekend due to the snow. The hazardous conditions could
impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds during Saturday night into Sunday
may cause blowing and drifting snow, which could cause poor
visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

PW
 
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and
5 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Georgia and central South
Carolina.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Saturday night and Sunday morning will be
bitterly cold with wind chills from 0 to 5 degrees possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
 
dc92d7bb09781f9110feb0514133d209.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
RAH WFO just threw up a WSW for their entire CWA. Here we go!!!

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
8 inches possible. Locally significant snowfall totals will also
be possible. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...All of central North Carolina

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
may become dangerous or even impossible with widespread closures
and disruptions to infrastructure possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary,
drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along
with you and anything else that would help you survive in case you
become stranded.

&&

$$

AS
 
We’re doing the reversal thing on the nam. Base of the trough is east at 45 but there’s more separation so the trough isn’t as + tilted
 
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3K is better than the regular NAM, but it’s pretty brutal for most west of 77 outside of the high country and immediate I40 corridor.
 
This is a Charlotte snowstorm special. Meaning they are in the epicenter of this. Doesn’t mean they get the most, but nearly all guidance has NO significant fail modes. (High floor) Charlotte is big time due, hope yall score up that way. Hoping for 3-5 inches down here in CAE
 
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