12z
00z
Big jump from euro at the 11th hour
00z
Big jump from euro at the 11th hour
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
A lot more QPF that run! I'd take it.
Euro has locked in well over last 6 runs. Just wobbling
NBAcentel
Member
Piedmont Nuke 
Through early Sunday morning.
mx3gsr92
Member
Getting Kuchera now and it's...insane.
Stormsfury
Member
Can I get fries and a banana pudding milkshake with that? This upper low may set some lowest heights records down here in the SC Lowcountry. No joke.
these models, like the euro account for it. im betting a lot of the "rain" on early returns is from moisture not quite in the DGZ yetThis cannot be overstated. Dry air willimpact someone and maybe a lot. .
Keep on Rockin'
It's interesting how the 00z Euro completely shafts the PGV area where other modeling has 12-24" in this same area. Details that remain to be worked out as it's too early to say where the screwjobs will happen.
Forevertothee
Member
I may shed a tear.
@jackendrickwx bad data ingest? Pinch me
Brutal skip toward the Coastal plain
Is that due to phasing between the ULL and the SL?
BHS1975
Member
Is that from mixing with sleet?
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
This is getting better and better on EURO. Remember to beware of the pretty EURO maps, though, they can be very off; a la Feb 2014. For the upstate just need another push or two to get that dryslot out of there. Keep it coming.
Stormsfury
Member
Check, please. The occlusion occurs off ILM and causes the occluded low to cyclonically loop while rapidly deepening to 971mb!
Euro AI still favors the coast.
This is a more reasonable solution clim
It's good to see north Georgia and eastern Georgia in on this. I'm still bullish on this and would like to see the GFS take a step toward the Euro later through the day. I am glad someone brought in the dryer air probability. The 00z Euro was probably picking this up across eastern North Carolina and the Pee dee of SC.
It’s a highly, highly anomalous setup for us down south. But you can see here how the layer from 600mb up to 300mb dries out (those maps are covering 300mb to 700mb RH), but the full dendrite growth zone is moist because it’s so much lower than normal in this cold environment. I always say that if a storm doesn’t have enough moisture to saturate the DGZ, it’s not worth a nickel. Think we should be fine here
NBAcentel
Member
Just unreal stuff. deep DGZ, close to the ground, temps in the teens, gusts up to 35mph as the meso low cranks up and we get a brisk NE wind. Just wild 
RDU is at 14 degrees with 30+ mph gusts during some of the heaviest snow on the 00z Euro. Kind of unbelievable. This is not our climate!!!
These cold TPVs hanging out in S Canada have been unreal in terms of cold air source. Coming down the road in mid-Feb too it looks like
Blizzard criteria met?
Yeah, it seems likely that someone gets skipped between the ULL and the coastal low to some extent. Probably will be MBY and @KyloG's. At least it should still be a few inches...
WxBlue
Meteorologist
It's still possible models are underestimating the sublimation in the boundary level.
Not far off
Sorry, one more map spam. -2F wind chill during this panel. Single digits for most of the Carolinas. Won't happen, can't happen!
exactly. the snowfall maps/precip can see this.
Yeah, also the same for virga. People always worry about the models not accounting for virga, but they do (you can argue the models aren't taking the dry air into account enough for whatever reason, but that's different).
I rebuke this energy for our neck of the woods!
That said, *someone* is getting dry slotted with this setup. Hopefully not to an extreme though, and wherever that does set up, there’s still a solid few inches squeezed out
yeah, when you guys start seeing green on the maps; and you will; it's just light precip/the growth region not saturated yet, it's not a risk of no snow/ptype issues inland
disassociated_vort
Member
qpf really dropped off on the midnight releases from the nws compared to maps posted earlier in the day. judging by these digital snow angels y'all are making over here i'm guessing it's going to rebound in the morning and this was using data from the 18z runs. i went ahead and pulled CAE and ILM too. valid through 7pm saturday.
shoutout to the relative min. north of greenville, sc that has been getting some attention earlier in the chat.
shoutout to the relative min. north of greenville, sc that has been getting some attention earlier in the chat.
Doesn't look like visibility will meet it based on the visibility charts on the euro, lowest I saw during the duration was 7/10ths in Florence. Unless that's flight level and not surface. I didn't see a reference on them.
remember; these official products it is easier to go from lower end and adjust higher than to have high and adjust lower
protocol
the government/officials have other data and a best/worst case scenario, we don't really see that product from those briefings.. in most likelihood i'd think we see kind of the lower side of things on initial products to the public
protocol
the government/officials have other data and a best/worst case scenario, we don't really see that product from those briefings.. in most likelihood i'd think we see kind of the lower side of things on initial products to the public
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this is basically what’s happening here, just shift things eastward on the Euro of course
Stormsfury
Member
Charleston had a wind chill of 11° Tuesday morning. All the warm days this month likely erased any above normal anomalies for the month of January.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hot take here, but the one place I’m feeling probably the most confident about my chances to get a good snow out of this storm is down towards Charlotte/SW Piedmont.
While you may not get the most snow out of this storm compared to some places east of you, your forcing is much more concrete and straightforward. Over the Charlotte area/SW Piedmont, you have the upper low + upstate mesolow to fall back on to give you several Inches of snow at least even if the synoptics were to somehow go off the rails a bit
Over the Triangle area and into perhaps even the coastal plain (US-1/95 corridors) there’s a lot of uncertainty because you will have to potentially worry about getting dry slotted in the “no man’s land” between the upper low + mesolow to the west and the coastal out east.
While you may not get the most snow out of this storm compared to some places east of you, your forcing is much more concrete and straightforward. Over the Charlotte area/SW Piedmont, you have the upper low + upstate mesolow to fall back on to give you several Inches of snow at least even if the synoptics were to somehow go off the rails a bit
Over the Triangle area and into perhaps even the coastal plain (US-1/95 corridors) there’s a lot of uncertainty because you will have to potentially worry about getting dry slotted in the “no man’s land” between the upper low + mesolow to the west and the coastal out east.
Translated that means it is easier to fudge the numbers lower to not panic anyone rather than provide the truth.
If we actually have to tell the truth, then we will at the last minute. That will cover our a**.
That's what is wrong with weather forecasting. Point Blank. Communicate clearly with the public about the risk and probability. Don't hedge things based on how you think it will be received. Weather forecasting should be honest. Period. That is what has been lost. Fix It.