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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

NBAcentel said:
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This is a more reasonable solution clim
superjames1992 said:
It's interesting how the 00z Euro completely shafts the PGV area where other modeling has 12-24" in this same area. Details that remain to be worked out as it's too early to say where the screwjobs will happen.

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It's good to see north Georgia and eastern Georgia in on this. I'm still bullish on this and would like to see the GFS take a step toward the Euro later through the day. I am glad someone brought in the dryer air probability. The 00z Euro was probably picking this up across eastern North Carolina and the Pee dee of SC.
 
WxBlue said:
Word of caution... we'll need keep the dry air in mind. It has the potential to screw over the storm for a lot of people. Brad P and Fishel have both brought this up tonight.
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It’s a highly, highly anomalous setup for us down south. But you can see here how the layer from 600mb up to 300mb dries out (those maps are covering 300mb to 700mb RH), but the full dendrite growth zone is moist because it’s so much lower than normal in this cold environment. I always say that if a storm doesn’t have enough moisture to saturate the DGZ, it’s not worth a nickel. Think we should be fine here

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Brutal skip toward the Coastal plain
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Yeah, it seems likely that someone gets skipped between the ULL and the coastal low to some extent. Probably will be MBY and @KyloG's. At least it should still be a few inches...
 
wxdaniel said:
This is a more reasonable solution clim


It's good to see north Georgia and eastern Georgia in on this. I'm still bullish on this and would like to see the GFS take a step toward the Euro later through the day. I am glad someone brought in the dryer air probability. The 00z Euro was probably picking this up across eastern North Carolina and the Pee dee of SC.
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It's still possible models are underestimating the sublimation in the boundary level.
 
superjames1992 said:
RDU is at 14 degrees with 30+ mph gusts during some of the heaviest snow on the 00z Euro. Kind of unbelievable. This is not our climate!!!

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Sorry, one more map spam. -2F wind chill during this panel. Single digits for most of the Carolinas. Won't happen, can't happen!

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griteater said:
It’s a highly, highly anomalous setup for us down south. But you can see here how the layer from 600mb up to 300mb dries out (those maps are covering 300mb to 700mb RH), but the full dendrite growth zone is moist because it’s so much lower than normal in this cold environment. I always say that if a storm doesn’t have enough moisture to saturate the DGZ, it’s not worth a nickel. Think we should be fine here

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exactly. the snowfall maps/precip can see this.
 
weather nerd said:
exactly. the snowfall maps/precip can see this
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Yeah, also the same for virga. People always worry about the models not accounting for virga, but they do (you can argue the models aren't taking the dry air into account enough for whatever reason, but that's different).
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, it seems likely that someone gets skipped between the ULL and the coastal low to some extent. Probably will be MBY and @KyloG's. At least it should still be a few inches...
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I rebuke this energy for our neck of the woods!

That said, *someone* is getting dry slotted with this setup. Hopefully not to an extreme though, and wherever that does set up, there’s still a solid few inches squeezed out
 
qpf really dropped off on the midnight releases from the nws compared to maps posted earlier in the day. judging by these digital snow angels y'all are making over here i'm guessing it's going to rebound in the morning and this was using data from the 18z runs. i went ahead and pulled CAE and ILM too. valid through 7pm saturday.

shoutout to the relative min. north of greenville, sc that has been getting some attention earlier in the chat.
mapgen (3).pngmapgen (1).pngmapgen (2).png
 
remember; these official products it is easier to go from lower end and adjust higher than to have high and adjust lower

protocol

the government/officials have other data and a best/worst case scenario, we don't really see that product from those briefings.. in most likelihood i'd think we see kind of the lower side of things on initial products to the public
 
superjames1992 said:
It's interesting how the 00z Euro completely shafts the PGV area where other modeling has 12-24" in this same area. Details that remain to be worked out as it's too early to say where the screwjobs will happen.

View attachment 191041
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Yeah this is basically what’s happening here, just shift things eastward on the Euro of course

1769667608844.png
 
Hot take here, but the one place I’m feeling probably the most confident about my chances to get a good snow out of this storm is down towards Charlotte/SW Piedmont.

While you may not get the most snow out of this storm compared to some places east of you, your forcing is much more concrete and straightforward. Over the Charlotte area/SW Piedmont, you have the upper low + upstate mesolow to fall back on to give you several Inches of snow at least even if the synoptics were to somehow go off the rails a bit

Over the Triangle area and into perhaps even the coastal plain (US-1/95 corridors) there’s a lot of uncertainty because you will have to potentially worry about getting dry slotted in the “no man’s land” between the upper low + mesolow to the west and the coastal out east.
 
weather nerd said:
remember; these official products it is easier to go from lower end and adjust higher than to have high and adjust lower

protocol

the government/officials have other data and a best/worst case scenario, we don't really see that product from those briefings.. in most likelihood i'd think we see kind of the lower side of things on initial products to the public
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Translated that means it is easier to fudge the numbers lower to not panic anyone rather than provide the truth.
If we actually have to tell the truth, then we will at the last minute. That will cover our a**.

That's what is wrong with weather forecasting. Point Blank. Communicate clearly with the public about the risk and probability. Don't hedge things based on how you think it will be received. Weather forecasting should be honest. Period. That is what has been lost. Fix It.
 
disassociated_vort said:
qpf really dropped off on the midnight releases from the nws compared to maps posted earlier in the day. judging by these digital snow angels y'all are making over here i'm guessing it's going to rebound in the morning and this was using data from the 18z runs. i went ahead and pulled CAE and ILM too. valid through 7pm saturday.

shoutout to the relative min. north of greenville, sc that has been getting some attention earlier in the chat.
View attachment 191050View attachment 191051View attachment 191052
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Please understand those maps only forecast snow through 7pm on Saturday. The storm will not be over by then.
 
griteater said:
It’s a highly, highly anomalous setup for us down south. But you can see here how the layer from 600mb up to 300mb dries out (those maps are covering 300mb to 700mb RH), but the full dendrite growth zone is moist because it’s so much lower than normal in this cold environment. I always say that if a storm doesn’t have enough moisture to saturate the DGZ, it’s not worth a nickel. Think we should be fine here

View attachment 191042
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It would be a good example to watch for the future. So, you wouldn't be concerned with the winds at that level?
 
wxdaniel said:
It would be a good example to watch for the future. So, you wouldn't be concerned with the winds at that level?
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If you are referring to the wind barbs on that map, it looks like those are wind speed and direction averaged for an expansive layer from 700mb up to 300mb, but regardless, I don’t see anything to be concerned about with those winds, no
 
superjames1992 said:
Please understand those maps only forecast snow through 7pm on Saturday. The storm will not be over by then.
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i tried to be a responsible wx weenie and include when the maps are valid through 🥲 the 7-day qpf also went down. i personally like comparing the humans to the machines so consume at your own risk i suppose
 
ILM WFO strikes first!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
150 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
291800-
/O.NEW.KILM.WS.A.0002.260131T0600Z-260201T2100Z/
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New
Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Coastal
Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern
Horry-
Including the cities of Boiling Spring Lakes, Florence,
Masonboro, Surf City, Hartsville, Socastee, Murrells Inlet,
Little River, North Hartsville, Long Beach, Kingstree, Conway,
McColl, Loris, Bucksport, Aynor, Tabor City, Bladenboro,
Wilmington, Dillon, Whiteville, Southport, Carolina Beach, Green
Sea, Elizabethtown, Andrews, Mullins, Georgetown, Sunset Beach,
Ogden, North Myrtle Beach, Bennettsville, Lumberton, Burgaw,
Garden City, Chadbourn, Oak Island, Myrtle Grove, Leland,
Darlington, Marion, Lake Waccamaw, Myrtle Beach, Longs, Seagate,
and Shallotte
150 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
amounts.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

III
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Grit, do you recall how closely the ULL bowling ball March 2nd, 2009 storm compares to this one? I recall the ULL may have closed off earlier, and that one had a strong 850 low in middle Ga.
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It closed off much earlier, way back in the Pacific NW on Feb 26th. In the SE, as strong as it was, it was still a whopping 20 dm weaker than the upcoming one is projected to be (~543 vs ~523)!
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Last edited:
Message from KGSP: 1:30 AM What remains the subject of much consternation is QPF. After multiple model cycles in which the overall trend in deterministic guidance was toward a snowier scenario for the CWA, 00Z guidance has generally come in with a bit lighter QPF. Ensemble guidance also provides plenty of ammo to give one pause as to the potential lack of QPF problem undercutting snowfall potential...especially across the western half of the area. The main issue as we see it is that much of the precip potential for this event would be dependent upon how quickly the mid-level deformation zone matures as the upper low passes near/over the CWA early Saturday. In general...deformation zone precip regions can be underwhelming (and under performing of guidance) in terms of precip production. We have therefore generally sided with the lower side of the guidance envelopefor QPF, especially across our western half.

I was under the impression the 00Z QPF up ticked across KGSP CWA?
 
0z was more or less a hold around the triangle. Run to run noise is all I really saw. One concern: dryslot. Otherwise, nothing that doesn’t support double digit snows across the majority of NC.

Some runs coming up will be wetter. Others drier.

First call amounts (id call this 40th percentile outcome):
Raleigh: 6-10”
Charlotte: 4-7”
Greensboro: 5-8”
Greenville, NC: 8-12”
Fayetteville: 6-12”
Columbia: 3-6”
GSP: 4-6”
 
GSP WFO just issued a Watch for their entire CWA. I'd imagine RAH WFO will do so tonight, as well.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches east of I-26. Total accumulations between 2 and 4 inches
across the remainder of the area. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate
South Carolina.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may
produce scattered power outages due to the weight of the snow on
tree limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree
branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to rapidly stick to roads
and other surfaces due to temperatures in the 20s. Travel
conditions could deteriorate rapidly as early as Friday evening.
Very gusty winds on Saturday could result in areas of blowing
snow, causing very poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

Lane


EDIT: And Blacksburg:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
8 inches possible with the highest amounts south of Route 460.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest
Virginia, and Mercer County in southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult during Friday and the
upcoming weekend due to the snow. The hazardous conditions could
impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds during Saturday night into Sunday
may cause blowing and drifting snow, which could cause poor
visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

PW
 
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