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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

The maddening part of me is we have a Cheer Comp for my daughter in Gwinnett on Saturday. I really do not feel like getting stuck a hour and half away from my house in snow and frozen highways. It's gonna be maddening to tie down just what's gonna happen because I would prefer to have that Comp called if it's gonna be dicey. The ULL is the story and that's gonna be held close to the vest until right before
 
ColdAMO said:
Yes the downward trend has started for sure. We will be lucky to see a widespread 1-3 inch event in central NC. Rug pull once again. Those large total clown maps are pure fantasy and nothing more. I have been watching them for 25 years and have NEVER seen one verify.
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There is no downward trend.
 
Ross said:
it feels like a feast or famine kind of place to me, and modeling represents that. i could see the verification map looking like tiger stripes. if i were there i would bring a mindset of, if it happens, awesome, if it doesn't, we knew this was a possibility
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It's great to be excited, but none of this is real until it's on the ground. Might get nothing, might get under a band and see glory. All to be decided during the actual event.
 
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First Call:
I feel the best along and west of 77 right now. ULL driven precip looks solid and I think as we get into the mesos range we will start seeing some increased totals with leeside enhancement and just typically overperforming NW from these things. Mix that with the fact that places further west will have like 20:1 ratios, 0.3-0.5" of liquid which has been the average looks likely. The biggest question for me remains the coastal at this point. You could get a foot plus or get blanked.
 
iGRXY said:
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First Call:
I feel the best along and west of 77 right now. ULL driven precip looks solid and I think as we get into the mesos range we will start seeing some increased totals with leeside enhancement and just typically overperforming NW from these things. Mix that with the fact that places further west will have like 20:1 ratios, 0.3-0.5" of liquid which has been the average looks likely. The biggest question for me remains the coastal at this point. You could get a foot plus or get blanked.
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idk about 1-3 for (atleast the western metro) but I like that overall Georgia forecast, very very good imo
 
wow said:
Need an expert here to answer, but looking at the 500mb maps there's very little major movement. Some back and forth tweaks is all I see. Best to stick with a blend for precip forecast.
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two things jump out:
1. vort trail over new england trending south. indicates less 'seperation' and lowers heights ahead of storm. we already have plenty of cold air. need those heights to rise to sharpen things
2. florida shortwave is tucking in further west. we want that east, that piece helps 'slingshot' the trough into neutral/negative tilt.

small features but they matter
 
Just catching up on the models runs overnight, I like where CLT is for a nice several inch snow event. But I don't buy the crazy high numbers the gfs is spitting out, and I think ratios tend to be overdone. Generally speaking, I think qpf is too high on op models and like to go with the Euro EPS for it. Whatever it says, it's usually close to that. Right now, my guess is the ULL doesn't produce huge totals, the coastal really doesn't give 77 west that much precip if at all (it never seems to in my recollection), and the precip ends sooner than modeled every time west to east. Therefore right now, I'd expect around .3 inches or so from the ULL. So a 3-4 inch storm seems reasonable, and the best we've seen since 2018 I believe.

That drying is what you have to look for though out west. I think Raleigh area ends up better due to the coastal.
 
12z Euro is ~3-6" for CLT / GSO, ~4-8" for GSP, ~5-10" for RDU (ratio dependent - lower bound when using 10:1 and upper bound using 20:1). Not too shabby, although perhaps not the insanity we saw from the GFS / Canadian. PGV jackpot, though. Could this be another December 2010 for them? Very spicy for upstate SC, too!

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BrickTamland said:
Yeah, it's not as much as the GFS and Canadian, but this is still a major snow storm. And the ratios would be higher than 10:1.

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There is a pretty good amount of low to mid level warm advection on the euro over eastern NC as the low cranks up. Probably underestimating that as usual (& arguably too dry)
 
I’m sure as hell not turning my nose up at 7-8 inches of snow 6 days after a 2 inch sleet bomb. Most juice we’ve had since 2018!

I think everyone is just amped because we know the potential here, how rare getting a synoptic setup this perfect is and we want the thing to bomb so everyone can get the once every decade or so 17 inch paste job. I get it.

FTR, I think that’s still very much on the table. These things wind up more than thought all the time.


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Webberweather53 said:
There is a pretty good amount of low to mid level warm advection on the euro over eastern NC as the low cranks up. Probably underestimating that as usual (& arguably too dry)
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Curious if you think the ~18-20:1 ratios the Kuchera is banking on are realistic? I'm just always a little hesitant to bank on crazy ratios around here no matter how cold it is.

I know it's happened before where ratios were truly phenomenal (January 2003 being the biggest one I can think of - supposedly, ratios were 30-40:1 in some areas of the southern NC foothills), but it is a rarity.
 
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