CNCsnwfan1210
Member
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
To me its very minuscule changes at H5 with the ULL, but slightly noticeable changes with the upstream confluence perhaps squashing the footprint further south 
Bigedd09
Member
I thought around this time last week was when the weathernext starting drying out
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Best to keep the bad news at bay for a little longer (I would assume it will shift in line with its AI counterpart, but who knows).
And to be clear the AIFS is warning criteria snow for most of NC, so it’s really a great run, but we are shooting for the stars here now.
I never dreamed I would see any model forecast 48 hours away from a potential storm with over two feet of snow over Wake County. It's the GFS but it is uncharted ground none the less.
BHS1975
Member
I've never seen a clown map this close to go time.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Best to keep the bad news at bay for a little longer (I would assume it will shift in line with its AI counterpart, but who knows).
And to be clear the AIFS is warning criteria snow for most of NC, so it’s really a great run, but we are shooting for the stars here now.
Can you show the run I don’t have access to it please
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Does this seem like a
“6-10 with Localized 12” or more “ TV forecast ? For WRAL / Triangle?
Charlotte - 3-6” Localized 6+
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I’ve seen it before but never with temps/warm nose not being an issue
This is 10:1, so you can probably times it by 1.5-2x. So you're looking at 6-8" in the Charlotte area, 4-6" in the Triad, and 3-5" in the Triangle. Not bad, not historic. Really good down deep into SC, though (CAE!). And another generational storm for the OBX.
AIFS Surface Temperatures during the precip
Makeitsnow
Member
I'm a lot more confident on snow where i'm at/ne ga than atlanta. But one would think if a track like the canadian panned out with the upper low core near freaking columbus to savannah, north ga would get hit really good. The other models aren't bad either..one would think some nice meso effects would cause locally really good totals. But As gulf low said though, it would be nice if just once atlanta/georgia as a whole was in the heart of one instead of watching huge ones in every direction. It's nice to get a couple of inches but even thats brutal to take if the entire eastern half of the carolinas get a foot plus. They always either amp too early or amp too late. it's wild honestly.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the floor for this event out over the western Piedmont from about Charlotte and points west into the upstate is higher because of the upper low and possible mesolow that develops in SC. Good chance of at least a moderate sized event even with some synoptic tweaks.
From RDU and points east it’s much more dicey. Those folks really need the coastal to go
My favorite snowstorm of all time! I remember walking in the woods in the snow and temperatures in the teens on the small farm in Wake County I grew up on beholding at all. I've got a little stretch of woods behind my current residence. I might have to see if I can bring back some good memories.
Euro is loading up now on WxBell
Tsappfrog20
Member
I would be very happy with 3-5” for the triangle of course I would love more but would be satisfied.
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HailCore
Member
12Z Euro looks to still put down a moderate to heavy event for most. No substantial changes in snow footprint so far other than the heaviest axis shifting significantly east
I just saw ABC11 they said 70-90% chance of major impact from this storm for most in Central NC and Winter Storm Warning Likely
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wow
Member
wait which is which?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Here's my first call snow map!
packfan98
Moderator
Back and forth we go. Bad trends all day and hopefully bounce back tonight. 12z AIFS ensemble matches the op and dries out more. I think maybe with the ULL being so far south that we are losing some dynamic enhancement?
packfan98
Moderator
BHS1975
Member
I thought the best place to be is just north of the upper low?
Stormsfury
Member
Not sure if it's "drying" out per se. But with the weird back and forth we see from the AIFS modeling the off hours and on hours, 18z likely bounces back. It's been something we've seen for the last 6 to 8 cycles now.
Brandon10
Member
Euro Op is really not buying into the coastal low. Every other model except UKMET is....now we wait for ensembles
Euro suite isnt stellar at qpf forecast, espeacilly inside 3 days. Cams time, when you nail that down.
wow
Member
Need an expert here to answer, but looking at the 500mb maps there's very little major movement. Some back and forth tweaks is all I see. Best to stick with a blend for precip forecast.
EPS did the same AIFS thing where the overall trend since the driest runs is good, but the off hour runs were the best
Need that ULL as strong and as SW as possible. These things usually have a way of leaking north or northeast and weakening as we approach game day. Just small changes in that will have large ramifications on the pretty snowfall maps.
ColdAMO
Member
Yes the downward trend has started for sure. We will be lucky to see a widespread 1-3 inch event in central NC. Rug pull once again. Those large total clown maps are pure fantasy and nothing more. I have been watching them for 25 years and have NEVER seen one verify.
BrickTamland
Member
And the only trend I see with that is it is consistently back and forth.
Lordhelmit
Member
closes off at 69 over tn