Brandon10
Member
I think if the NAM went out to 87 you would see that big band starting to set up from Chesapeak Bay down to Faeyetville and east.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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BrickTamland
Member
End of the NAM and still going.
As of now, I feel that SAV will most likely get either no or a trace of snow but favoring a trace. If we’re lucky, we could get a few tenths of an inch from a SE moving streamer that happens to center near us and doesn’t dry up too much on the way to the coast. Though unlikely based on our long history, that’s doable with how cold it looks to be if the very strong upper low verifies and so I’m excited about at least having that chance. Just getting a tenth of an inch or a couple of tenths is as you must know a big deal based on history as a strong majority of winters get no measurable wintry precip here.
This isn’t the very rare classic very moist storm setup like 2018 and 2025, which had cold enough air and lots of moisture in advance of the surface low. For our area, this one is much less moist and is mainly upper low generated.
If I get time, I’m going to look for similar mainly upper low generated analogs.
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more progressive but after the gravy train the last 12 hours we were due for a step back. still, even with worse synoptics, better moisture response, i think the CAMs will do better with this and there may be a CAMs vs Globals divide in qpf
BrickTamland
Member
NAM might have had 12 more hours to go, too.
JQPublic
Member
What is Google for this weekends storm at this range? or will we find out at noon?
Nam gets low 990's Coastal, further east than GFS, because it doesn't get TPV back west as far as GFS early in run. Although it trended in this direction from its 6z run.
Psalm 148:8
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just inside the blue line… hanging on like a hair in a biscuit!! This was from James Spann fb.
iGRXY
Member
Couple things on the NAM.
1. It's the long range NAM.
2. It looks like it has feedback issues even with the precip like it usually does even with the more progressive look.
3. It's the long range NAM
1. It's the long range NAM.
2. It looks like it has feedback issues even with the precip like it usually does even with the more progressive look.
3. It's the long range NAM
Makeitsnow
Member
Nam's wonky precip outputs aside, the 06z and 12z runs take the 850mb low much further south than the gfs through ga. same with the euro. we will see what the rest of the 12z runs show but the gfs is on it's own with it's much further north track.
gfs with its northern branch speed/bias
give it time to catch up
@bouncycorn does this bias still exist with the new fv core thing
give it time to catch up
@bouncycorn does this bias still exist with the new fv core thing
It looks great in my area with a very rare 1.7-1.9” of snow, but it’s the terrible long range NAM and nothing else has anything like that. I’m heavily discounting this at this time.
NCWeatherhound
Member
And still snowing over central and eastern NC for at least a few more hours.
Stormsfury
Member
The upper low actually was going neg tilt at hr 84 and ended up a little south of where I thought it was going to tick. It appears that the surface low depicted was on a convective cluster well out east of Florida.
Oconeexman
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Glad to not be in the Nam bullseye this far out...never works out that way. Maybe by Friday at 12z different story
Xlhunter3
Member
Newest NBM just went up big time. 
Tsappfrog20
Member
From Allan Huffman
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thanks for this! Last year was awesome and I appreciate you explaining how this setup differs. Much like you, it’s nice to be in the game and I would be more than happy with a dusting.
Pilotwx
Member
NAM looks awful for Piedmont back into foothills area, NW flow doing its thing as usual
One thing we won’t have to worry about is soil temperatures! 
I’d imagine they will be even colder, perhaps fully below freezing by the time the system begins, too! Combined with the system starting at night and in super cold air temps and there will be basically zero melting except on treated asphalt surfaces!
I’d imagine they will be even colder, perhaps fully below freezing by the time the system begins, too! Combined with the system starting at night and in super cold air temps and there will be basically zero melting except on treated asphalt surfaces! Makeitsnow
Member
Yep it's precip output at this range is almost 100% useless. But i don't think the nam is going to be alone in giving your local snow.
Snowgirl67
Member
Not everyone can read the models. I get no banter but responses like this doesn’t encourage anyone to ever try to participate.
Cary_Snow95
Member
NAM says what precip Min?? Coastal only show in town
Showmeyourtds
Member
I would not expect this at this point, despite what some of the other models have shown unless there's further corrections to the west in the next few days.
If you're along & west of the I-75 corridor in GA, I think there's a decent chance at seeing flakes, but in terms of accumulations, this is going to be more of an on/off snow showers sort of deal where the ground might get covered for a little, but then the sun comes out & melts it away.
As things go further to the east (Clayton-Athens N/S corridor), that's where the possible deform band could show up & get steady snow for a potential warning level criteria.
Makeitsnow
Member
Interesting that the Baby CMC has a tightly closed off VM at this timestamp. It'll be interesting to see where this goes from here.
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When the NAM and the SREF are disjointed, I almost always discount the NAM:
Looks like the SREF might’ve been trying to do a Murphy-to-Manteo (granted this is a smoothed mean). Precip is still ongoing and is spooling up in central / eastern NC.
wow
Member
RDPS a hair west and pitching off a bit quicker. at 66
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Almost every square inch of both carolinas on the mean. I think the last storm we could point to that did this was Christmas 2010.
Packsox03
Member
Much bigger fan of the NAM’s surface depiction than any of the globals. ECMWF barely had snow touching Wilmington despite a 987 to their SE
Still a lot less bullish than the globals but respectable. Looks like "the big one" for most of NC!
packfan98
Moderator
Oh Yeah!
Now, that's more like it!
iGRXY
Member
RGEM bombing out right now. Massive comma head. Looks nothing like the NAM at H5 or the surface