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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Mahomeless said:
Based on:

-Global models inability to properly place ULL’s
-2.5 days worth of westward trends that coincide with how these setups dig way further west and south as they approach more often than not
-NAM and RGEM already showing this with expanded qpf fields when they are normally very dry at this range
-Increased heights off the east coast
-Trends showing increased interaction with energy in the SW

Need more?
Click to expand...
Nope this is all I needed thanks. I don't like the vague posts of oh I think this or that is going to happen and then not state reasons.
 
Snow sandwich with all the fixings at 12z today:
I fully expect the euro op to look like the gfs, with the coastal part today. Full throttle bombogenesis, with the pivot off the coast.
It was just about there at 6z.
We gonna all get the best of both worlds (ULL Beast and coastal beast )
This is the one we always wanted to draw up. Frigid column top-bottom, ratios, track. I feel really confident in what GFS and GFS have been advertising, coming close to fruition. May not see a 30 inch lollipop, but I can see a 20-24 somewhere.
 
Brandon10 said:
Especially since the GFS output is the Low basically stalling/meandering off NC/VA for 12-18 hours. No other model show is getting captured. They show gradual NE movement not a crawl
Click to expand...
Didn't the Euro and Canadian show that a day or two ago when they showed 20-30" for some? Unlikely, but not an impossible scenario.
 
GaWx said:
I’d be very wary about the crazy high qpf of the last several GFS over C and E NC. It had 2-4” of qpf for the previous storm in many areas like ATL and much of N GA ended up with only ~0.75”. I’d at least cut the GFS’ in half. Besides we know it is an inferior model in general. Compare the GFS crazy high qpf to the other models and it isn’t really close for the most part:

GFS way out on limb:
View attachment 190515

Euro: way less than GFS
View attachment 190516

CMC: much less than GFS except within 75 miles of coast:
View attachment 190517

ICON: way less than GFS
View attachment 190518

UKMET: way less than others/likely way underdone
View attachment 190519

I’d favor going with the middle ground combo of Euro and Icon as of now for overall qpf amounts and favor the Euro’s C NC for the heaviest at this point.
Click to expand...

True, even averaged all together I get .4 - .5” QPF back this way in the 77 Corridor. At

13:1 - 5-7”

15:1 - 6-8”

17:1 - 7-10”

So is majority of this in The Western Sections all ULL? I noticed NWS only has Friday night and then “Snow Mainly between 6A and 2P” like meh that’s a fast mover


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I’d be very wary about the crazy high qpf of the last several GFS over C and E NC. It had 2-4” of qpf for the previous storm in many areas like ATL and much of N GA ended up with only ~0.75”. I’d at least cut the GFS’ in half. Besides we know it is an inferior model in general. Compare the GFS crazy high qpf to the other models and it isn’t really close for the most part:

GFS way out on limb:
View attachment 190515

Euro: way less than GFS
View attachment 190516

CMC: much less than GFS except within 75 miles of coast:
View attachment 190517

ICON: way less than GFS
View attachment 190518

UKMET: way less than others/likely way underdone
View attachment 190519

I’d favor going with the middle ground combo of Euro and Icon as of now for overall qpf amounts and favor the Euro’s C NC for the heaviest at this point.
Click to expand...
It s all dependent on fully phased cyclogensis evolvng. If you don't get that, only partial, then yes, qpf will be lower. If you get it wound up, pressure to bottom out, rapidly intensify like the GFS suite does at h5. you will get the high qpf its advertising.
 
CaryWx said:
The dry slot (lesser amounts) near our area though looks real on several model outputs now.
Click to expand...
NWS Raleigh mentions this possibility in their forecast discussion. It is wonderful that practically everyone in the Carolinas is almost guaranteed to see snow this weekend but it would be sad to see a dry slot cut down totals across the Piedmont. Lets root for the GFS which keeps all of the energy for this storm primarily with the coastal low.
 
jeremyt said:
I grew up in Coats so I know all too well! Still a lot to change possibly between now and Sat morn!
Click to expand...
We're over here on top of the old Lillington town dump. It's a little bit of a knife twist when other folks say "Wow! This run will be great for everybody!" knowing it's another dagger for the Sandhills.
To keep this from being banter: Am I correct that the reduced totals are from a projected energy transfer? I'd think any warm nose issues would be overcome. Or is it merely difficulties with convective noise?
That precip cliff along I-95 on the Euro looks a bit specious to me.
 
superjames1992 said:
Didn't the Euro and Canadian show that a day or two ago when they showed 20-30" for some? Unlikely, but not an impossible scenario.
Click to expand...
The CMC did to a degree...not as much as GFS. But IMO that is a rare occurence here. Not impossible but is it plausible?

I do wonder if the CMC which is between the GFS and Euro is the current middle ground.
 
GaWx said:
I’d be very wary about the crazy high qpf of the last several GFS over C and E NC. It had 2-4” of qpf for the previous storm in many areas like ATL and much of N GA ended up with only ~0.75”. I’d at least cut the GFS’ in half. Besides we know it is an inferior model in general. Compare the GFS crazy high qpf to the other models and it isn’t really close for the most part:

GFS way out on limb:
View attachment 190515

Euro: way less than GFS
View attachment 190516

CMC: much less than GFS except within 75 miles of coast:
View attachment 190517

ICON: way less than GFS
View attachment 190518

UKMET: way less than others/likely way underdone
View attachment 190519

I’d favor going with the middle ground combo of Euro and Icon as of now for overall qpf amounts and favor the Euro’s C NC for the heaviest at this point.
Click to expand...

EPS was pretty good and Google nailed it for RDU to GSO, for the most part. But, to be expected the ens mean doing better.

RDU recorded .5" and GSO recorded .80" per NWS/RAH.

Screenshot 2026-01-28 at 9.12.43 AM.png
 
KyloG said:
EPS was pretty good and Google nailed it for RDU to GSO, for the most part. But, to be expected the ens mean doing better.

RDU recorded .5" and GSO recorded .80" per NWS/RAH.

View attachment 190521
Click to expand...
Roanoke saw at least 1.75 inches of liquid so it was not exactly locked in for further north
 
NCWeatherhound said:
We're over here on top of the old Lillington town dump. It's a little bit of a knife twist when other folks say "Wow! This run will be great for everybody!" knowing it's another dagger for the Sandhills.
To keep this from being banter: Am I correct that the reduced totals are from a projected energy transfer? I'd think any warm nose issues would be overcome. Or is it merely difficulties with convective noise?
That precip cliff along I-95 on the Euro looks a bit specious to me.
Click to expand...
I would think it’s the in between land due to phasing but I’m an amateur!
 
KyloG said:
EPS was pretty good and Google nailed it for RDU to GSO, for the most part. But, to be expected the ens mean doing better.

RDU recorded .5" and GSO recorded .80" per NWS/RAH.

View attachment 190521
Click to expand...

The Google...0z Saturday run was pretty good then? Below is right at the 1.5" QPF...I call that fairly good for a smoothed mean.

Screenshot 2026-01-28 at 9.19.00 AM.png
 
Are these increased ratios
GaWx said:
I’d be very wary about the crazy high qpf of the last several GFS over C and E NC. It had 2-4” of qpf for the previous storm in many areas like ATL and much of N GA ended up with only ~0.75”. I’d at least cut the GFS’ in half. Besides we know it is an inferior model in general. Compare the GFS crazy high qpf to the other models and it isn’t really close for the most part:

GFS way out on limb:
View attachment 190515

Euro: way less than GFS
View attachment 190516

CMC: much less than GFS except within 75 miles of coast:
View attachment 190517

ICON: way less than GFS
View attachment 190518

UKMET: way less than others/likely way underdone
View attachment 190519

I’d favor going with the middle ground combo of Euro and Icon as of now for overall qpf amounts and favor the Euro’s C NC for the heaviest at this point.
Click to expand...
How are you feeling about our neck of the woods as for the possibility of just getting some snow accumulation? It's tough being right on the edge.
 
NCSNOW said:
It s all dependent on fully phased cyclogensis evolvng. If you don't get that, only partial, then yes, qpf will be lower. If you get it wound up, pressure to bottom out, rapidly intensify like the GFS suite does at h5. you will get the high qpf its advertising.
Click to expand...

Whenever the inferior GFS is way out on its own, it usually fails badly as is well-known. Giving too much weight to it is likely just going to lead to disappointment. @Brent in Tulsa has alluded to this. Also, it was way too wet with the last storm in much of the SE. It was on its own way too cold for Tue lows as I posted about yesterday. When the GFS is way out on its own, similar GFS busts are common. Besides the other ops, look at how it compares to the ensemble means, including its own:

GFS
IMG_7652.png

GEFS: has ~1/2 as much and looks reasonable to me with still a major snowstorm for you and much of NC:
IMG_7657.png

EPS: similar to GEFS/reasonable:
IMG_7658.png

Euro AIFS: reasonable
IMG_7660.png

CMC ens: reasonable
IMG_7659.png
 
Makeitsnow said:
There is a decent chance atl gets 1 to 3 just based on the average of models. It won't take but 0.07 to get an inch with 15 to 1 ratios and 0.20 to get 3. In general models are showing that
Click to expand...

Could, but you have to factor in sublimation in as well if that plays out.Anything on the west and southwest side will be from mostly bands. So in effect, you may get 1-2" worth of snow and only see a dusting several times because it disappears in the lulls.

It will be pretty though.
 
Arcc said:
Could, but you have to factor in sublimation in as well if that plays out.Anything on the west and southwest side will be from mostly bands. So in effect, you may get 1-2" worth of snow and only see a dusting several times because it disappears between bands.

It will be pretty though.
Click to expand...
i would agree, honestly, im cool with any amount of snow as long as it lasts long
 
Arcc said:
Could, but you have to factor in sublimation in as well if that plays out.Anything on the west and southwest side will be from mostly bands. So in effect, you may get 1-2" worth of snow and only see a dusting several times because it disappears in the lulls.

It will be pretty though.
Click to expand...
I saw this in Christmas 2010 or 2011 - one of the analogs. Everyone talks about the white Xmas in the ATL area. I am in East Cobb and it was more of a opaque Xmas as we never got more than slush. BUT, slush may not be an issue w/ temps this go. If I remember some folks nearby had a few inches.
 
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