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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

griteater said:
I don't know if Mitch could survive this. Concerned

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Probably banter so I’ll just say it once, but this storm is definitely personal. Got a whopping 0.9 off the January system last year. Potential was for so much more. So it would be crushing to miss this one. Even getting an inch while two hours up the road get half a foot would stink. 3-4 inches is the standard here. Gonna be greedy. I’m done. Lol
 
rburrel2 said:
12z pangu and Graphcast went boom.

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I would love this. Looks like it digs so much further south and west. Let’s go Pangu! Would get so many more into the game imo. And would be a more classic miller A that gets the gulf involved for us in western Carolina’s.

This just seems so far east to me that a warm cow poot would push it north east and miss mby completely. Stoked for Raleigh though, it looks like their storm no matter what.

Edit looks like the spire does the SW dig too. ✅
 
I continue to like where we are here even with east shifts today. I’m like 80% sure it’ll eventually start shifting back west as we get closer. A. Northern stream ULL typically dig more. B. It’s almost a guarantee that whatever the models show in the day 4-6 range, the opposite happens in the short range. C. ULL themselves almost always overperform
 
Speaking for eastern NC. Bombing coastal makes me a little nervous, more times than not they definitely come W/NW some, at least enough for warm nose to ruin part of the party. But as others have mentioned, artic airmass over snow pack to our N/NW helping that temp gradient and should keep baroclinic zone suppressed off the coast.
 
DopplerWx said:
It’s been said but it’s wild how google locks in 144-168 hrs and just holds steady. No crazy run to run changes like we all see with the gfs and euro. I wonder what makes it less susceptible to these swings?
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Just like how YB betta, WN betta. It’s a model that shows promise more so then anything so far
 
Pops said:
If things keep going like they going,thinking about chasing to Raleigh,don’t know anything about the place..peeps ,give me some info
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It's crowded. Lots of traffic, even in the suburbs these days. It's the city where Barney goes to party. Most of the population is from other states who have moved there in recent years. The people are friendly for the most part.
 
DopplerWx said:
It’s been said but it’s wild how google locks in 144-168 hrs and just holds steady. No crazy run to run changes like we all see with the gfs and euro. I wonder what makes it less susceptible to these swings?
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because it is a better model. Simple as that! It initializes the same as all other ecmwf-initialized models.
 
Mahomeless said:
It’s quite impressive with how locked in most all of these models are at this time.
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It's really not a complicated set up for models to resolve like the last system. This is why I would really love to be in the Carolinas right now especially around Raleigh.

I still believe Atlanta and east in GA can see accumulating snow with slight adjustments. Will it be a major snow? No, but as long as its accumulating, it's signficant.
 
RBR71 said:
Speaking for eastern NC. Bombing coastal makes me a little nervous, more times than not they definitely come W/NW some, at least enough for warm nose to ruin part of the party. But as others have mentioned, artic airmass over snow pack to our N/NW helping that temp gradient and should keep baroclinic zone suppressed off the coast.
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Wilmington had a good discussion today. Our fear in mine and @SENC @Avalanche @lexxnchloe is going to be if it can develop fast enough to tap moisture. The later bloomer certainly favors your neck of the woods.

Think I'm going on a 24 hour model blackout
 
Mitch West said:
Probably banter so I’ll just say it once, but this storm is definitely personal. Got a whopping 0.9 off the January system last year. Potential was for so much more. So it would be crushing to miss this one. Even getting an inch while two hours up the road get half a foot would stink. 3-4 inches is the standard here. Gonna be greedy. I’m done. Lol
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Feel that way up here too.. Feels like we've been stuck in a bubble of just dry slots.. Seen them go to my south, to my north and even hit, but get dryslotted in the system like last year. We haven't seen snow over an inch here since 2022 during Izzy. Gotta hope for the best
 
Shaggy said:
Wilmington had a good discussion today. Our fear in mine and @SENC @Avalanche @lexxnchloe is going to be if it can develop fast enough to tap moisture. The later bloomer certainly favors your neck of the woods.

Think I'm going on a 24 hour model blackout
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I'm very well considering he same @Shaggy, I'm feeling like Charlie Brown & lucy.... Well,, I'll not say the rest..
13" + or bust!
 
ChrisAMB said:
10-14 days of lows in the teens/low 20s and our newly formed glacier may actually kill the fire ants.
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I got stung over 20 times by rabid yellow jackets a few months back. I'm hoping they heard about the "dumpster fire" winter in the fall and only dug down a few inches instead of below the frost line. I carry a grudge when I'm attacked. Me an innocent.... a good boy. A delicate sweet boy.
 
Mitch West said:
Probably banter so I’ll just say it once, but this storm is definitely personal. Got a whopping 0.9 off the January system last year. Potential was for so much more. So it would be crushing to miss this one. Even getting an inch while two hours up the road get half a foot would stink. 3-4 inches is the standard here. Gonna be greedy. I’m done. Lol
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Mitch, I've been pulling for ya from the beginning man. Hope you score here. Wish I could send some of what I get Southeast to you sometimes.
 
Here's what I think the major possibilities are, just based off our current situation.

1. Jan 2000/Jan 1996-like; a blizzard from Raleigh to Boston.
2. Jan 2022-like; a blizzard from the Outer Banks, Delmarva, Jersey Coast, and eastern New England. The I-95 corridor receives snowfall, but it's less than option one.
3. OTS; it's a fish storm.

What is the most likely possibility? I am not sure. These are the three major possibilities, not all the possibilities.
 
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18z EPS trend beginning to show less spread/a little more certainty of the surface low positions and more consolidation, perhaps trending toward a stronger solution. There are some members closer to the Carolina coast.


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tractor girl said:
We haven't seen much since '22.. there was maybe 1-2" here last year but it was gone fast, just wasn't super fun. I can't remember the last 5-6" snow I've seen. I was in ATL for a few years, and feel I missed one in Athens a ways back. Maybe it was way back in ATL in early 2011, I think 5ish inches.

As soon as I saw an eastern coastal and north trend on this I pretty much mentally checked out. It's possible a gufl low could pop but we should be seeing more sign of that and very soon, or this is a big fail for most of us on the board
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Atlanta has struggled to get a nice event. Last one was 2017 and that barely affected Atlanta proper. Has been a snow drought.

Every event has had Atlanta at or near the edge of the fun. always on the side of no fun. (oops forgot to put this in banter)
 
bouncycorn said:
Atlanta has struggled to get a nice event. Last one was 2017 and that barely affected Atlanta proper. Has been a snow drought.

Every event has had Atlanta at or near the edge of the fun. always on the side of no fun. (oops forgot to put this in banter)
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I got 4” last Jan in Chastain Park. That seemed pretty nice. Maybe we were in the lollipop 🤷‍♂️
 
bouncycorn said:
Atlanta has struggled to get a nice event. Last one was 2017 and that barely affected Atlanta proper. Has been a snow drought.

Every event has had Atlanta at or near the edge of the fun. always on the side of no fun. (oops forgot to put this in banter)
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I think last year was pretty good...parts of the city got up to 4.5 inches of snow and it happened very fast with super heavy rates. It could be worse(Look at areas in Upstate SC, Charlotte, NC down to Augusta, GA). That's a true snow drought.
 
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