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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

griteater said:
Euro AI has the better wave pass. Farther south / better tilt. Since this is the Machine Learning Mauler Thread, I'm going with the AI version here

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Honestly don’t know why we’re even wasting all this bandwidth on lesser models.

SnowGod WeatherNEXT has already spoken its gospel.


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Btownheel said:
Honestly don’t know why we’re even wasting all this bandwidth on lesser models.

SnowGod WeatherNEXT has already spoken its gospel.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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This is a crazy test for it — if it wins here and every other model folds over the next 4 days or if it’s just crazy sauce.

I mean the rest are close-ish sorta. But nobody’s as consistent with track out as far west with snow out to atlanta.
 
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18z AIFS ensembles are a little more modest than 12z with a similar footprint.
 
This is a great looking setup, just a classic miller a event for nc synoptically. +PNA, strong west-based -NAO, big cold high diving down the Plains, deep TN valley trough, and reasonably strong subtropical jet is usually how you’re supposed to do it.

I also really like the nice healthy snow pack we’ve got to the NW of NC now after this storm. That should help keep the baroclinic zone reasonably suppressed to benefit nc if we were to get some synoptic shifts that favor a north trend somehow. It’s hard to push a big low way to the north when it’s being met with cold and stable low level air mass reinforced by deep snow cover. Also will be very helpful with low level cold air transport
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a great looking setup, just a classic miller a event for nc synoptically. +PNA, strong west-based -NAO, big cold high diving down the Plains, deep TN valley trough, and reasonably strong subtropical jet is usually how you’re supposed to do it.

I also really like the nice healthy snow pack we’ve got to the NW of NC now after this storm. That should help keep the baroclinic zone reasonably suppressed to benefit nc if we were to get some synoptic shifts that favor a north trend somehow. It’s hard to push a big low way to the north when it’s being met with cold and stable low level air mass reinforced by deep snow cover. Also will be very helpful with low level cold air transport
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What are your thoughts about S.C. in this setup?
 
All the ensemble means have 1-3 inches of snow across the upstate, as do most of the individual model runs. Throw in that weathernext is the most bullish here we with 4+…. And all this at stock 10:1 ratios.

A nice 2-5 inch powder snow seems like a near lock for us, unless something goes horrribly wrong.
 
Notice where axis is on jma verse spire. Then look how much futher back west you dig on spire, in turn generating more moisture back west.
This thing is gonna go ham, no matter what. Just pray it does it close enough to coast to hand out a party invitation to your zip code.

Jma


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Spire


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