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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

rburrel2 said:
All these models are just circling around what weathernext is showing…. I wonder how this plays out? Haha
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If I had a educated guess I'd say they all have a near similar if not the same solution to the weathernext model after awhile(around the next 2-3 days or so maybe sooner). Almost like coping the weathernext model's homework.

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BrickTamland said:
Seems like GFS went the opposite of all the other model runs today.
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The GFS and the last UKIE run are in the same camp with a strong coastal low that gives Eastern NC/SC snow and leaves everyone else out of the picture. The storm the GFS is showing reminds me of the Christmas Day 1989 snowstorm that gave Wilmington blizzard conditions with a dusting at best for KRDU. I was in Smithfield that day and saw a couple of inches of snow.
 
The only thing that I think I'd nitpick with the Weathernext model is that I think it's trended away from the weak Miller A footprint and is trending to ULL focus. Which...may work, but idk, I feel iffy about it.

GEFS seems sort of interesting so far involving the southern piece, but it's about to probably go poof.
 
iGRXY said:
Trying to forecast an ULL is very tough but it always comes with great rewards for areas that get under or just north of it. I think the upstate is sitting pretty as we stand right now. The ULL alone could drop easily 2-8"+ of snow west to east. Anything we could get from a coastal development is just money. I'd like to trend the ULL a bit more west (not much honestly) it would shift your area into the 2-6" range and my area in the 5-8"+ probabilities. right now that's sitting more along I77.
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Two of my better storms since 2000 were ulls coming thru here. Pity they were spring storms. I'd love to reap ull goodness when the goodness isn't melting as it falls.
 
GaWx said:
It already has been trending N/NW.

The models are typically too far SE due to a bias. So, we’re betting the streak. How much more will they trend NW? Well, nobody knows as it depends on how much the models are still off from reality.
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Models are Not the weather. What we see are facsimiles of the graphic fantasies computers can cook up based on insufficient data. One has to learn their biases to interpret what the fantasies are telling them..... knowing they are guesses based on insufficient data, biases, idiosyncrasies, and background noise.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The only thing that I think I'd nitpick with the Weathernext model is that I think it's trended away from the weak Miller A footprint and is trending to ULL focus. Which...may work, but idk, I feel iffy about it.

GEFS seems sort of interesting so far involving the southern piece, but it's about to probably go poof.
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I've lost gulf storms that jumped energy and lost moisture to an Atlantic storm cooking up. I don't like the competition. Just give me a split flow, cold air in place, and a weak gom low tracking across Fla. Leave the ull, and the Atlantic low, and all that extra stuff off, lol. Now if the gom low wants to blow up once it's thru Fla. go for it.
 
Ross said:
i think globals will have some issues with convective feedback east of the storm skewing the moisture transport some
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Isn't this roughly what we had last January? The models really blew up the morning of the storm and totals went way up. There wound up being a streak from roughly Conway SC up through Elizabethtown NC of enhanced totals. It was a very dynamic storm on the ground.
 
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