Latest CAE discussion mentioning this weekend below for my Midlands family.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a stretch of calm but cold weather this week,
an active stretch of weather is expected over the weekend with
potential winter weather.
Below average temperatures are expected to last through the end
of the week with broad trough in place across the eastern US.
Generally daytime highs in the 40's with overnight lows in the
20's is expected through Friday. The pattern quickly begins to
amplify Saturday as the lingering deep trough over the eastern
US digs south and interacts with the jet draped across the
southern US. The global ensembles and AI suite are in general
agreement that this will rapidly drive cyclogenesis somewhere
from the southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic. While these
ensembles, and inferring from the AI output, are showing the
potential for some snow as this low develops, caution should be
taken in trusting any ensemble and model in this range yet, even
those with internal ensemble consistency. The interaction
between the digging trough (with its own internal dynamic
shortwaves) and the southern jet is inherently chaotic from a
prognostication standpoint; ejecting-decaying cutoff mid level
troughs, like we see from Canada in this setup, are notoriously
difficult to predict. So expect some notable changes in guidance
the next few days, but snow potential cannot be ruled out this
weekend. Regardless of where the low deepens, well below average
temperatures are likely early next week behind whatever occurs
from this system.
