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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

GaWx said:
CMC: looks good now for many (thus I wish that were for today) but we need to be wary of N/NW trend of the low and the Arctic high: how much more will it trend? There’s still 5 days to go, plenty of time for further NW trends.

This is over only a 36 hour period of runs:
View attachment 189541

Temps warming up as Arctic air backs NW:
View attachment 189542
Click to expand...
Gotta think sometimes, the ridiculously cold temp anomalies also adjust as we get closer to that time, especially given the GEMs well known cold bias in the MR/LR. Two things working for us is the 500 mb low and the insanely cold 850mb. Lot more wiggle room than most setups.
 
jeremyt said:
How far out were we from this Sat/Sun when the models turned NW? I know I seem negative but it’s hard to trust anything at this point!
Click to expand...
Chrystal ball here but we tend to see a convergence from the models on a more consistent corridor and then moves the whole thing NW a bit with minor wobbles back SE. Just my guess though on past views.
 
Big improvement
4bca02ad25c03355d3fcf2f656e166c6.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Makeitsnow said:
well looks like the ukmet wants to be the party pooper. too progressive and mostly dry.
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But it's showing something. Most important thing at this point.

We're getting close to the 120-hour mark. It seems that's when the models jump/trend to their preferred track. At least that's what has happened the last few events.
 
jeremyt said:
How far out were we from this Sat/Sun when the models turned NW? I know I seem negative but it’s hard to trust anything at this point!
Click to expand...
while there were some warning shots, the 18z euro on tuesday was the inflection point. obviously we have more model cycles of holding our breath to go
Makeitsnow said:
well looks like the ukmet wants to be the party pooper. too progressive and mostly dry.
Click to expand...
i thought h5 looked improved to 00z in backing up west a little more, just too much leftover vorticity through the northeast for this to really "pinch" into a cutoff
 
FallsLake said:
But it's showing something. Most important thing at this point.

We're getting close to the 120-hour mark. It seems that's when the models jump/trend to their preferred track. At least that's what has happened the last few events.
Click to expand...
yeah it ended up ok for eastern nc. regardless, if the euro/aifs comes in west, i think it's safe to dismiss it as a clear outlier.
 
UNCSC said:
And if we are getting technical about the Canadian looking back 5 days out on the storm that just went through yesterday. It had the track absolutely nailed 5 days out and even had this storm showing up. Not saying the Canadian is a great model but you have to tip your hat when it is due
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Different situation entirely. twelve hours here or there, the wave dropping in a hundred miles either way could mean the difference between heavy snow, heavy rain or an absolute whiff.
 
GaWx said:
CMC: looks good now for many (thus I wish that were for today) but we need to be wary of N/NW trend of the low and the Arctic high: how much more will it trend? There’s still 5 days to go, plenty of time for further NW trends.

This is over only a 36 hour period of runs:
View attachment 189541

Temps warming up as Arctic air backs NW:
View attachment 189542
Click to expand...

This bugs me a little bit. The maps on pivotal with snow depth, show the huge icestorm as snow cover from initialization time and still shows up with the snow depth this weekend. It barely bugged thru the run. 1st image shows initialization (includes yesterday's storm in the Carolinas as snow depth as well)

snod-imp.us_se.png
snod-imp.us_se (1).png
 
Yeah we are what we would considered fully in mid-range view parts out West are basically just under 5 days out and Carolinas at 5 days window. It seems all models are moving aways from the super-suppressed look which they usually do and dynamics improving for SE overall just how much will be determined over next few days.
 
GaWx said:
CMC: looks good now for many (thus I wish that were for today) but we need to be wary of N/NW trend of the low and the Arctic high: how much more will it trend? There’s still 5 days to go, plenty of time for further NW trends.

This is over only a 36 hour period of runs:
View attachment 189541

Temps warming up as Arctic air backs NW:
View attachment 189542
Click to expand...

I’m glad you mentioned this because this is looking more of an east to west CAD event.
 
Ross said:
while there were some warning shots, the 18z euro on tuesday was the inflection point. obviously we have more model cycles of holding our breath to go

i thought h5 looked improved to 00z in backing up west a little more, just too much leftover vorticity through the northeast for this to really "pinch" into a cutoff
Click to expand...
WeatherNext had the track before that:

Wintry - January 23rd-27th 2026

Smart people talking about 1988. From Webbers website ..
southernwx.com

from what I can tell. ;) It never really deviated.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah it pops a legit gulf low at hour 102, but it's too warm in GA until it gets cranking off the Carolina coast.
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The 850s were plenty cold enough. With higher rates and a bit more expansive precip shield while GOM is near the north central GOM, we could get the boundary levels cold enough for some sloppy accumulations to start. This sounding is for MBY east of Atlanta.
soundings-[33.75,-83.75]-icon-prateptype_cat_icon-imp-us_se-2026012612-108.png
 
malak05 said:
Yeah we are what we would considered fully in mid-range view parts out West are basically just under 5 days out and Carolinas at 5 days window. It seems all models are moving aways from the super-suppressed look which they usually do and dynamics improving for SE overall just how much will be determined over next few days.
Click to expand...

I would be highly careful to not discount the chance of a absolute whiff despite what the ensembles are saying. I've seen coastals trend west too many times in these setups to only whip OTS the last three days or so.
 
Stormsfury said:
Gotta think sometimes, the ridiculously cold temp anomalies also adjust as we get closer to that time, especially given the GEMs well known cold bias in the MR/LR. Two things working for us is the 500 mb low and the insanely cold 850mb. Lot more wiggle room than most setups.
Click to expand...

My posts almost always are based on careful thinking before I post them.

One thing I’m thinking about is that the record low H5 showing in the image below for our areas is likely going to back off not just a little bit but significantly based on 74 years of data:
IMG_7610.png

Also, all it takes is a continued NW shift of H5 and the currently modeled insanely cold 850s (last 2 Euro runs have near record coldest) could easily warm up drastically.
 
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GaWx said:
For GA: The 12Z Icon purely upper level driven (based on sfc low then in unfavorable location offshore of the Carolinas moving away) snow of this magnitude in the NE half of GA would be very highly anomalous, especially down this way. If I get the time, I’ll search for an analog.

View attachment 189478

View attachment 189479

View attachment 189480

View attachment 189481


When a model shows an extreme solution out a few days or more, I don’t bet on it verifying closely. This has a 522 H5 over SAV, which would tie with the historic 1/19/77 522 H5 that brought snow to Miami for the lowest H5 at SAV since at least 1948: so, very likely overdone

Icon for 10PM Sat. night 1/31:
View attachment 189495

H5 for 12Z 1/19/1977: see upper right
View attachment 189496

Regardless of what it shows now, look for NW trends away from this.
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I remember that the January 2002 storm had a good amount of upper level driven snow in northern GA with the surface low offshore of the Carolinas
 
Snowfan said:
Interestingly CMC/ICON/Euro shows a Gulf Low while the GFS tries to get going in AR/LA but gets crushed
Click to expand...

Yeah, if you're west of the Carolinas, you like seeing the weak miller A footprint on the Euro ensembles and Weathernext.

I'm just honestly uncertain it can be a thing, but as long as Weathernext isn't taking it off the table, there's a chance, small, but it's there.
 
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