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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

NBAcentel said:
Euro bomba. I’d say another thing we need to be careful is we don’t trend the closed off H5 vort to far north. But wow View attachment 189361
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Yes, the TPV widening out / stretching out is a great trend. Without it, we end up with an east coast trough that is too sharp, with no storm. But now that it is widening out, us folk in the southeast also need the western appendage to dig south. If you're in the NE, you're not going to want it to dig south as much

Here's the trend on the Euro (big changes over this stretch)

Jan 25 Euro Trend.gif
 
337c5b109846bf34e2da0c9f15e0ddb7.jpg
 
When it was showing the sharper east coast trough, I had been noticing the Euro really retrograding the Greenland block into Hudson Bay quickly. You can see on the trend loop here how at the beginning of the loop, it is poking the retrograding Greenland block down into Lake Superior.....but has since backed off on that, which has allowed the TPV to stretch out more west to east. The downside is that it may be too much of a good thing over time. The upshot may be that it allows our southern stream wave to become more of a factor and have room to breath and sharpen over the SE, which is what the WNext seems to be doing a little more of

Jan 25 Euro Trend Tid.gif
 
SegTindo said:
Seems a little excessive to say that ngl considering it could trend that way


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No, he's correct. Just the way things are. Sure the possibility is there, but 95% of the time, us in Alabama are on the outside looking in on coastals.

I'll happily eat crow being wrong though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. We desperately need the southern stream s/w to rise from the dead.
 
accu35 said:
This look is more of a Miller A? More amped?
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^ Yeah it's a trend from really compressed flow along the east coast (way south storm off the coast) to room for TPV / northern stream to drop down and potentially phase with the southern stream wave. Can see some deep south precip with gulf low here on the CMC Ens

Jan 25 CMC Ens S.gif
 
Arcc said:
No, he's correct. Just the way things are. Sure the possibility is there, but 95% of the time, us in Alabama are on the outside looking in on coastals.

I'll happily eat crow being wrong though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. We desperately need the southern stream s/w to rise from the dead.
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I understand not saying he’s wrong but it still kinda hurts that he said that but I’m not gonna lose hope yet but I’m lowering my expectations to %1 lol


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Good synopsis about where we are at currently from the NWS Raleigh overnight discussion:

“For Saturday, the latest 00Z guidance (including the GFS, ECMWF,
their ensembles, and various AI-based output) is maybe trending
towards some snow potential for our area. In general, most guidance
depicts a strong northern stream trough digging south across the
Great Lakes Friday and merging with a southern stream jet somewhere
over the Deep South/Southeast Saturday. Additionally, while previous
runs of the GFS/Euro/Canadian were each waffling back and forth
between no coastal low and a definite coastal low, virtually all of
these models are now depicting some sort of offshore cyclogenesis.
Still a bit far out to talk in absolutes, but the synoptic setup may
indeed be favorable for snow for our CWA. We`ll see how the guidance
trends wrt to handling the upper and lower level waves this week,
and if a favorable setup for snow to spread inland over central NC
unfolds, or if instead the Mid-Atlantic/New England region trends
more favorable.”
 
Western Carolina’s you got to love where we are right now. Just to the north and west of the heaviest totals. Rule number 1 of model watching: do not be in the bullseye until 2-3 days out max. Be northwest. We just need the pinched piece of energy to continue to dig south and. West so that we can get a low to form in the gulf and not in the Atlantic
 
GSP thoughts 1am

Small possibility of snow next weekend with development
of coastal low pressure to our east or southeast. If snow were to
fall, it could easily reintroduce or worsen travel impacts due to
the cold temperatures prior to onset.

The latest models are coming into a little better agreement on
a sharp vort lobe carving a deep trough over the Southeast late
Friday into Saturday. This wave may provide energy to induce
cyclogenesis somewhere near the South Atlantic Coast. The low
looks to likely form offshore the Carolina Coast, resulting in
largely dry conditions for our area. There still could be some
brief NW flow snow shower activity with the passing upper trough,
but confidence of any precip east of the mountains remains low. A
handful of ensemble members from each of the GEFS/EC/GEPS and the
AI ensembles all have some QPF over our Piedmont with a possible
precip shield extending NW of the coastal low. The air mass in place
would be so cold, that the most likely precip type would be all
snow for our area. The latest NBM PoPs are still only in the 10-20%
range Friday night thru Saturday. But this situation bears watching,
as such cold temps ahead of this system would make even light snow
stick to roads more than usual, and lead to slippery conditions.
 
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