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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

NBAcentel said:
Euro bomba. I’d say another thing we need to be careful is we don’t trend the closed off H5 vort to far north. But wow View attachment 189361
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Yes, the TPV widening out / stretching out is a great trend. Without it, we end up with an east coast trough that is too sharp, with no storm. But now that it is widening out, us folk in the southeast also need the western appendage to dig south. If you're in the NE, you're not going to want it to dig south as much

Here's the trend on the Euro (big changes over this stretch)

Jan 25 Euro Trend.gif
 
337c5b109846bf34e2da0c9f15e0ddb7.jpg
 
When it was showing the sharper east coast trough, I had been noticing the Euro really retrograding the Greenland block into Hudson Bay quickly. You can see on the trend loop here how at the beginning of the loop, it is poking the retrograding Greenland block down into Lake Superior.....but has since backed off on that, which has allowed the TPV to stretch out more west to east. The downside is that it may be too much of a good thing over time. The upshot may be that it allows our southern stream wave to become more of a factor and have room to breath and sharpen over the SE, which is what the WNext seems to be doing a little more of

Jan 25 Euro Trend Tid.gif
 
SegTindo said:
Seems a little excessive to say that ngl considering it could trend that way


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No, he's correct. Just the way things are. Sure the possibility is there, but 95% of the time, us in Alabama are on the outside looking in on coastals.

I'll happily eat crow being wrong though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. We desperately need the southern stream s/w to rise from the dead.
 
accu35 said:
This look is more of a Miller A? More amped?
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^ Yeah it's a trend from really compressed flow along the east coast (way south storm off the coast) to room for TPV / northern stream to drop down and potentially phase with the southern stream wave. Can see some deep south precip with gulf low here on the CMC Ens

Jan 25 CMC Ens S.gif
 
griteater said:
^ Yeah it's a trend from really compressed flow along the east coast (way south storm off the coast) to room for TPV / northern stream to drop down and potentially phase with the southern stream wave. Can see some deep south precip with gulf low here on the CMC Ens

View attachment 189372
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Do you mind posting those members if you have them? Thanks man.
 
*But* for us in Alabama/west GA to have a shot in the fourth quarter, we want this trend to keep on. You can see the flow relaxing at 500mb from NW to west. This must continue.

ec-aifs_z500_vort_us_fh120_trend.gif
 
Snowking2.0 said:
I know it’s early but is this turning more into a storm for the carolina’s in general and not much for the western states?
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Don’t forget the NW trend (model correction) which would be your very necessary friend. If it were to come through big enough, you’d be in the game.
 
Arcc said:
No, he's correct. Just the way things are. Sure the possibility is there, but 95% of the time, us in Alabama are on the outside looking in on coastals.

I'll happily eat crow being wrong though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. We desperately need the southern stream s/w to rise from the dead.
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I understand not saying he’s wrong but it still kinda hurts that he said that but I’m not gonna lose hope yet but I’m lowering my expectations to %1 lol


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