Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[bncho]

guys...

 

[carolinachaos]

for my friends in i-20, this isn't a lack of cold air; it's just a late bloom on some of these models, for us

Definitely need to differentiate, because I-20 in Atl will have different impacts than I-20 in Florence, SC. Particularly with a potential setup like this.


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[bouncycorn]

Holy mackerel

 

[trackersacker]

Well I can’t sleep now

 

[bouncycorn]

WHAT???

 

[NBAcentel]

Euro bomba. I’d say another thing we need to be careful is we don’t trend the closed off H5 vort to far north. But wow

 

[griteater]

Euro

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Euro

Looks a lot like our new friend weather next

 

[griteater]

Euro bomba. I’d say another thing we need to be careful is we don’t trend the closed off H5 vort to far north. But wow View attachment 189361

Yes, the TPV widening out / stretching out is a great trend. Without it, we end up with an east coast trough that is too sharp, with no storm. But now that it is widening out, us folk in the southeast also need the western appendage to dig south. If you're in the NE, you're not going to want it to dig south as much

Here's the trend on the Euro (big changes over this stretch)

 

[hky1894]

 

[bncho]

That's an acceptable run for McLean, VA.

 

[Ross]

so if it develops like this

big if

i would expect the location of the closed off 500mb low to bounce around a lot and i'd be seeing how the ensemble envelope shifts

 

[NBAcentel]

If we get a wound up low that cold after is not gonna be a joke

 

[NBAcentel]

Big shifts here in the right direction, closer to the shorter range

 

[SegTindo]

not an alabama storm this go round, sorry

Seems a little excessive to say that ngl considering it could trend that way


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[griteater]

When it was showing the sharper east coast trough, I had been noticing the Euro really retrograding the Greenland block into Hudson Bay quickly. You can see on the trend loop here how at the beginning of the loop, it is poking the retrograding Greenland block down into Lake Superior.....but has since backed off on that, which has allowed the TPV to stretch out more west to east. The downside is that it may be too much of a good thing over time. The upshot may be that it allows our southern stream wave to become more of a factor and have room to breath and sharpen over the SE, which is what the WNext seems to be doing a little more of

 

[griteater]

Trend on the CMC Ensemble

 

[accu35]

Trend on the CMC Ensemble

View attachment 189368

This look is more of a Miller A? More amped?

 

[Packsox03]

This look is more of a Miller A? More amped?

Yes to both

 

[Arcc]

Seems a little excessive to say that ngl considering it could trend that way


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No, he's correct. Just the way things are. Sure the possibility is there, but 95% of the time, us in Alabama are on the outside looking in on coastals.

I'll happily eat crow being wrong though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. We desperately need the southern stream s/w to rise from the dead.

 

[griteater]

This look is more of a Miller A? More amped?

^ Yeah it's a trend from really compressed flow along the east coast (way south storm off the coast) to room for TPV / northern stream to drop down and potentially phase with the southern stream wave. Can see some deep south precip with gulf low here on the CMC Ens

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[accu35]

^ Yeah it's a trend from really compressed flow along the east coast (way south storm off the coast) to room for TPV / northern stream to drop down and potentially phase with the southern stream wave. Can see some deep south precip with gulf low here on the CMC Ens

View attachment 189372

Do you mind posting those members if you have them? Thanks man.

 

[hky1894]

This is much different, biggest thing will be keeping it south enough to not crush the mid Atlantic and leave us high and dry. But would imagine there’s some big hits on EPS

 

[NBAcentel]

Both the EPS/AI-ens lit up… nice way to end the night

 

[GaWx]

Do you mind posting those members if you have them? Thanks man.

Here they are fwiw lol: I don’t know if I’ve seen this heavy a CMC mean out 5+ days:




Always be aware of the trend, however, which is clearly westward (how far will it go?):

 

[Arcc]

*But* for us in Alabama/west GA to have a shot in the fourth quarter, we want this trend to keep on. You can see the flow relaxing at 500mb from NW to west. This must continue.

 

[Snowking2.0]

I know it’s early but is this turning more into a storm for the carolina’s in general and not much for the western states?

 

[Arcc]

Here they are fwiw lol:
View attachment 189376

View attachment 189377

Always be aware of the trend, however, which is clearly westward (how far will it go?):
View attachment 189379

That is making me think almost an overrunning setup at H5 before the Carolinas bomb.

 

[GaWx]

I know it’s early but is this turning more into a storm for the carolina’s in general and not much for the western states?

Don’t forget the NW trend (model correction) which would be your very necessary friend. If it were to come through big enough, you’d be in the game.

 

[wow]

Please thank the AI gods.before you leave.

 

[tempo47]

Can I ai some snow irl

 

[SegTindo]

No, he's correct. Just the way things are. Sure the possibility is there, but 95% of the time, us in Alabama are on the outside looking in on coastals.

I'll happily eat crow being wrong though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. We desperately need the southern stream s/w to rise from the dead.

I understand not saying he’s wrong but it still kinda hurts that he said that but I’m not gonna lose hope yet but I’m lowering my expectations to %1 lol


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[Parker]

Significant rise in the eps for us back west. Long live Alabama crew! We are gonna trend this where we want it!