Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I am not surprised. 2 areas of forcing competing against each other
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Subtle changes to the backside of the trough ..
NAM rakes the coastal plain with that deform band as the coastal bombs. Makes sense WXnext has been showing this for a while
That small closed contour in the middle..
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Some similarities. Looks completely different for far Western NC, however.
FV3 with the band of love just east of me, around Athens. Still going in some areas east.
NBAcentel
Member
RRFS falling into consensus completely…. Should give a better idea 
RGEM been holding steady for days and now 6z Euro/GFS and now the NAM moderate a little more to a Western pivot not yet quite to the RGEM but time to expand that way maybe RGEM/CMC will get the GOAT for the weekend?
The FV3 looked a lot better on the 12z run than prior runs, IMO.
packfan98
Moderator
I have no faith in this model, but the FV3 is pretty legit. Here' the last frame and snow totals up to that point.
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The NAM with a totally, completely different solution than the SREF should give anyone pause when considering the two.
Yeah the moisture feed is just off there was some positive aspects as far as the H5 look but agreed don't think anyone in Carolina should worry about it's qpf output it will be more then that
rburrel2
Member
Still going in Central SC down to the coast here on NAM 3km.
It made a big jump, but it's still way too progressive and flat compared to the AI/Euro conensus, imo. I think you'll see these totals go up across the board with the next cycle and have more precip further East. Charlotte sitting pretty.
It made a big jump, but it's still way too progressive and flat compared to the AI/Euro conensus, imo. I think you'll see these totals go up across the board with the next cycle and have more precip further East. Charlotte sitting pretty.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Let’s hope the FV3 is on to something with not showing the dry slot in Central NC
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This seems to as well came further West with initial bands of precip and as others mentioned as long as the H5 cooperates that the N and Western sides will see decent more expansive windows of moisture it's good to see alot of models retro some back to pushing moisture further west
iGRXY
Member
That final band as it clears the mountains and pushes into the upstate and the piedmont could really drop an additional inch or 2 as it builds.I have no faith in this model, but the FV3 is pretty legit. Here' the last frame and snow totals up to that point.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Some type of data got ingested in these models overnight to see the type of changes we’ve seen this morning.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah, that completely throws the SFC features completely off and why the coastal isnt properly feeding back inland like we would think given the 500mb low placement.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
700mb upper level winds out of the south, quite a bit of warm air advection
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Stormsfury
Member
Well, eh. But it is still -12 to -18.
700mb upper level winds out of the south, quite a bit of warm air advection
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Bigedd09
Member
Icon is going boom fwiw
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BrickTamland
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A strong upper low + mesolow is usually a winning combo for the Charlotte area down to about Spartanburg, SC and into the northern Midlands of SC.
If I was a snow weenie in the Carolinas right now, this is roughly where I’d want to be for this storm give/take based on what I currently see
If I was a snow weenie in the Carolinas right now, this is roughly where I’d want to be for this storm give/take based on what I currently see
foothillscrewzone
Member
RDPs cut amounts for almost everyone this run
Yes, the CMC has barely budged for 2 & a half days I believe.
The storm is just getting started and the 12z ICON has already laid down 4-8” around FAY. 
iGRXY
Member
RDPS tilt isn't as good this run.
Tsappfrog20
Member
The rgem seems to be hold serve so far
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packfan98
Moderator
Icon totals
packfan98
Moderator
Big time uptick from the prior runs for central NC, except CLT who seems like is going to win this one, regardless.Icon totals
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah that’s going to be nasty (in a bad way) wherever that sets up shop.Well, you can see the dryslot between the ULL and Coastal more.
New predom weather map
We really bout to crank
We really bout to crank
Brandon10
Member
wow. Icon went boom, RGEM basically held serve, and even RRFS is starting to boom.
Bigedd09
Member
Yikes. Losing the RGEM is brutal. But here’s the RRFS!
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packfan98
Moderator
Old RUFUS is coming in clutch!
packfan98
Moderator
Yes. Several analog storms with this setup produced these types of dry slots too. Check out what @Webberweather53 has be posting about it recently.