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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Oconeexman said:
Gonna be better than the last run but still too positively tilted for parts of the upstate to give a euro solution...but getting there!
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seems we gained more ground on the digging than we lost on the tilt there. Net win
 
Ross said:
there was a subtle shift east with the neutral/neg tilt progression yesterday which caps potential some. models also still figuring out multiple lows... some of them are fujiwara-ing around each other lol. lot of game left. i think eventual low position will take nowcasting and will be decided by atlantic convection. while i still think there is convective feedback issues with models, grit posted a good point that the southern shortwave will spur things.

View attachment 191147
i think synoptically what's spurring it is WAA aloft over the bahamas. totally fine enough lift to spur convection when you have actual real life CAPE at the surface. big question for me though is how much "influence" it has over the entire trough complex. my intuition is that convection closer to the coast takes over faster than modeled, but we'll see. as always, some ticks towards a slower, stronger ull wouldn't hurt ;)
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Rah NWS mentions LP over the Bahamas as a fail mode caveat, possibly drawing moisture from the coastal. I swear always something
 
09z SREF ARW cores went from bone dry to a ton of moisture southeast of Raleigh. Guidance is clearly struggling with something related to this coastal low / moisture. Two things: 1) illustrates just what a piece of trash the SREF is and 2) may also suggest something is afoot here because as others have said these synoptics do not correspond to less than 0.50" QPF across NC
sref-all-arw_c00-se-total_precip_inch-1769677200-1769936400-1769936400-20.gif
sref-all-nmb_c00-se-total_precip_inch-1769677200-1769936400-1769936400-20.gif
 
Edward Nygma said:
09z SREF ARW cores went from bone dry to a ton of moisture southeast of Raleigh. Guidance is clearly struggling with something related to this coastal low / moisture. Two things: 1) illustrates just what a piece of trash the SREF is and 2) may also suggest something is afoot here because as others have said these synoptics do not correspond to less than 0.50" QPF across NC
View attachment 191169
View attachment 191170
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Just to expound on this, the SREF NMB cores tuck the surface low along the Gulf Stream while the ARW cores have it way out there with the offshore convection.
sref-all-nmb_c00-east-mslp-1769677200-1769925600-1769925600-20.gif
sref-all-arw_c00-east-mslp-1769677200-1769925600-1769925600-20.gif
 
Edward Nygma said:
Just to expound on this, the SREF NMB cores tuck the surface low along the Gulf Stream while the ARW cores have it way out there with the offshore convection.
View attachment 191179
View attachment 191180
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this is a great observation. unsure if it is right but i do enjoy that we have a "what happens if the SLP actually forms where we think it will quickly" model depiction
 
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