Bigedd09
Member
Do ULL’s typically dig further south than modeled?
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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Do ULL’s typically dig further south than modeled?
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packfan98
Moderator
I’m not sure. Probably could go either way, but my anecdotal experience says they don’t dig as much at go time as previously predicted.
Tsappfrog20
Member
So I have people who ask me for what I think for the Raleigh area and this is what I sent out this morning…
Good morning from everything I’m seeing this morning. Still looking the same my guess is still 3-7”. I will say some of the models have shown a dry slot showing up around the central NC if that were the case in the triangle it could cut our totals to around 2-3 inches. Just something to keep in mind.
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Good morning from everything I’m seeing this morning. Still looking the same my guess is still 3-7”. I will say some of the models have shown a dry slot showing up around the central NC if that were the case in the triangle it could cut our totals to around 2-3 inches. Just something to keep in mind.
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rburrel2
Member
great trends for western folks and charlotte/columbia on the euro ens.
packfan98
Moderator
Precip for eps and ai eps
Shaggy
Member
If history holds that precip shield should expand west a bit and up totals. We almost always see qpf increase in the last 24-36 hours. Let's hope that happens here as well.
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Long range HRRR caveats apply here but this little band along 40 got my attention.
This kinda matches up with what the GRAF has been showing in the very early stages
I definitely could see you doing better than me Mark. Going to depend on the placement of the ULL. Anywhere from the southern Foothills down to Greenville Spartanburg over to Charlotte is going to get smoked somewhere. Just depends on where the best forcing sets up.
Not without other model trends in the Euro direction. Watch GFS
Bigedd09
Member
ULL's are a constant changing process. Models will not be able to forecast the exact bands. Anyone from raleigh to northeast georgia is in the game for a legit band from the ULL. Depending on how strong it is all those areas could see heavy banding. FUN TIMES AHEAD
Makeitsnow
Member
Brandon10
Member
Anyone have the latest GRAF?
packfan98
Moderator
Good map from Matthew East.
NWS snapshot of WSWs. SC covered with 2/3rds of the state. GA representing the western edge.
NC with 98 of 100 counties covered.
NC with 98 of 100 counties covered.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The one thing that has the highest winning % is climo. Just factor that in with model output
SREF is a good bit wetter fwiw
Makeitsnow
Member
Thank goodness for the leeside trough because it will be brutal in west ga. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 with temps in the teens. Assuming the wind gusts are overdone by 5 or 10 it will still be rough
Yep:
This would be a "Boom" for the areas list as "Boom or Bust" above. EDIT: this only goes to hour 72, more still falling in east NC.
BHS1975
Member
Definitely some dry slot members
Here's the SREF total 10:1 snow at hour 84. Still a little light snow falling at the coast.
Richmond should like this output the most. **But to be honest, I've never put a lot of stock in this model.
Richmond should like this output the most. **But to be honest, I've never put a lot of stock in this model.
Bigedd09
Member
I’ve only heard bad things about the SREF. Is it okay with QPF amounts or does it typically overdo it?
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It's been really bad in the past. I guess the big thing to take from it is its footprint of where the precip maximum is going to be.
If I were forecasting for Charlotte, I would go 5-7 inches, with equal chances of that bumping up or down over the next 36 hours. Not going to get any better setup than this temperature wise (normally our big bugaboo) at the surface and aloft. Have a busy day ahead at work. I hate work. Y’all hold the fort down
The question I have, though, is how much is dry slot and how much is convective feedback issues? All models often have this with deeply bombing lows. With weaker storms moving south to north, yes, a big dry slot. This is a sub 980 monster moving more west to east. Any opinions?
Webb’s post yesterday is spot on. We’ve seen similar setups in the past that led to places in central NC/SC getting dry slotted to death in the subsistence zone between lows.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Are your initiation dates off?
JDRwxNC
Member
Was around 2012-2014, but the SREF was showing 10ish on the plumes as the event was unfolding and #ColdRain the entire time in South Wake County. It remains the single greatest heartbreak in meteorological history. Hard to re-earn trust after that.
Joking aside, its a reasonable data point that should absolutely be taken and used within the greater data set to determine the forecast. Verbatim by itself though, no.
From reading, the SREF has a 90% accuracy rate when the model runs are consistent or tightly clustered from run to run. It can have a wide spread of qpf within 72 hours.
For CLT-GSP-GSO the path to a 6-8" event is there with the ULL...for Raleigh we needed the coastal and looks like that is slipping away. Still a nice event for us though...1-3" in really cold temps ain't all bad.
We needed that ULL to be negative at this point. Just doesn't quite get there.
We needed that ULL to be negative at this point. Just doesn't quite get there.
There will be a dry slot, this is 2 systems and western areas will do well with ULL. I've been saying this for days now, there will be an area of disappointment between the ULL and the coastal. Personally for mby I need that coastal further N/NW. Gonna be a brutal gradient somewhere
Bigedd09
Member
Ummm did we lose the Graf???
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packfan98
Moderator
Looks like a reasonable analog for this?
mydoortotheworld
Member
All hail the Canadians! If this solution verifies that is, I always knew ATL was still in the game! Keep that ULL trending SW and stronger for crazier totals in GA! Wish the AI models would follow suit…
I am not arguing that, there will be a dry slot. The sub 980 low is what I’m talking about, which is highly anomalous. If anyone with experience with New England nor’easters, how prominent is this dry slot?
Something to note about the EURO is that often times in the past it has really struggled with the extent of moisture inland directly associated with coastal lows… in both tropical systems and winter storms. If you look at the 1/3/2018 storm, the EURO never brought any precip inland from the coastal areas even as all short range models at the time were coming inland with the precip shield. I’m not saying that’s definitely happening here some of its dryer looks down east like we saw with the 6z run, but it is certainly something to watch
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