packfan98
Moderator
6z euro looks much better for the Georgia folks so far. Still running.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
And the love continues to the SC folks next!
rburrel2
Member
The model agreement here is insane, not counting a few outliers:
Here's clemson, SC total qpf.
00z Euro: .37
06z Euro Ai: .36
06z GFS Ai: .38
06z Rgem: .37
Here's clemson, SC total qpf.
00z Euro: .37
06z Euro Ai: .36
06z GFS Ai: .38
06z Rgem: .37
rburrel2
Member
Holy smokes... that'll wake you up in the morning!!! Best run of the whole storm for the Upstate and NE Georgia!
packfan98
Moderator
Pretty far south ULL pass on the euro really helped GA and western SC. Not as much precip for central NC it seems.
Dang didn’t expect to see that this morning. Wonder if we can keep that up until go time?
packfan98
Moderator
Winners and losers with this run.
Brandon10
Member
Euro really wants nothing to do with the coastal low...even with all other models jumping on board.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah if you see more of that Euro look, FFC would need to push their watch at least to knocking on the door of ATL proper, maybe to DeKalb County.
Edit: actually I’d say through ATL, I haven’t had my coffee yet.
Edit: actually I’d say through ATL, I haven’t had my coffee yet.
Winter Storm Warning
packfan98
Moderator
Dang they just issued a watch a few hours ago. Must be a typo because it's still a watch.
Euro 06z digging a little more south and west
Fountainguy97
Member
Man I'm still nervous to get excited but I get walloped on all modeling now. Snowing in the single digits
Bigedd09
Member
Legit band from the Raleigh area to Georgia
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Bigedd09
Member
I don’t understand why nws gsp really believes the north of I40 in the piedmont sees the best chance of high totals. I think the further south you go the better chance
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I just realized all these AI clown maps are 10:1..So you can add 50% to this map above. 4-6 should actually be 6-9. Thats 15;1 ratio. not out of the question for it to sniff 18:1 / max 20:1
Issues watches at 1am.. Waiting for the grids to update if changing to a warning.
packfan98
Moderator
I’m sure they are leaning towards climatology. Also they may not be sold on how far south the ULL is digging?
Makeitsnow
Member
I dont think ive ever seen the euro give me that much snow at this time range
SimeonNC
Member
HailCore
Member
My jaw dropped when I saw this run for western folks. I always imagined the ceiling for places like ATL at 2-4 inches since the Canadian and RGEM were the most aggressive... The EURO of all models has now raised the high end (4-6 inches) which is pretty wild in my opinion. Maybe it is picking up the upper level feature better than before and accounting for those higher-end totals, but man that seems so far-fetched that I would take even this run with 5 grains of salt.
Bigedd09
Member
Yeah for sure. And ULL are so hard to pinpoint down so it would make sense that they’d lean toward climo
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packfan98
Moderator
rburrel2
Member
Frame it.
Bigedd09
Member
That makes a lot more sense given recent trends south with modeling
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iGRXY
Member
I expect GSP to start inching totals up across all of the western Carolinas and NE Georgia
rburrel2
Member
NAM vs Euro stand off.... who you got?
Oconeexman
Member
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Yessir!
Euro goes neg tilt as the GFS and RGEM are positive to neutral at that 60 hr range. Difference in 4 inches and 10 inches...this one is going to come down to the wire no doubt!
Good to see Euro throwing a bone to NE Alabama.
Bigedd09
Member
They both have been making different changes each and every run. Who knows. ULL’s are difficult to forecast
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This is a "if you build it, they will come" look QPF-wise over here. Winners/losers pattern with banding still seems likely in my mind, but boy you can get some big totals from this
They might a little, but often in the past, they have waited for an event to start to begin raising totals.
CltNative90
Member
Watched a couple local veteran tv mets on the tube this morning. Both echoed Brads sentiments about dry air at the surface. My opinion on that is if it breaks through, it breaks through, and it’s gonna accumulate. I do think @Ross’s analogy to the Bengals end zone is a good one though. With these upper lows, it’s all about where the heaviest bands set up and pivot. There will be winners and losers within short distances of each other.
packfan98
Moderator
For hr68, I would think the euro. However it is one of the more southern solutions. I think I would go blend 70% euro and 30% nam.
From MHC Discussion
Bigedd09
Member
Through hour 45 on EPS the upper level low is further west
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iGRXY
Member
That’s 3 runs in a row the euro wants to dump on the upstate. My guess is its higher resolution is also helping to pick up on more enhancement. Plus the ULL being a bit more SW
You know what they say, when the VIPIRCAST is on board then wax the sleds @Mitch West