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Late July 2021 Significant Heat Wave

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Fountainguy97 said:
By every definition a HI > 115 is UNUSUAL for ANYONE in the SE.

Most of the stations have averaged only .1-.2 days with HI>115 in the last 45 years. That is 5-10 days of 115 HI for the last 45 years. A day with HI of 115 is quite literally a 1 in 5-10 year event for the vast vast majority of the SE.

MRCC - Climatologies: Heat Index (illinois.edu)

You can see below the 115 line is at 0% probability.
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Yeah if you use Piedmont cities it is , but Deep South cities along the miss river ? Certainly going to be a bit more common . If I’m reading those right Raleigh has the highest probability of highest dews . Geez . Didn’t expect us to beat out Birmingham . Well they look about same at the probability of 110.

Edit: looked at map looks the same apart from a small bubble on the miss Louisiana border. However if I just do average number of days with 3 or greater hours at greater than or equal to 110 there is a sizable area around the miss river where it is more likely than rest of southeast . If I bring it to 1 hour it’s even more likely with an average of 3-7 days at 110 or greater in that area in question with dewpoint Dan. So it’s more likely than anywhere else in that area in a given year . In NC it’s around Jacksonville nc where we find the highest probabilities .
 
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KATL: an impressive 95 today, the hottest to date on a day that had been forecasted to not be as hot as THU/FRI. So, will the next two days be even hotter? Stay tuned.

KSAV: high today of only 89 and highest to date is 96, set back in June

KRDU: high today of 95, which is hottest to date. They'll have a chance to slightly exceed the 95 the next two days. Stay tuned.
 
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I can’t believe y’all really made a thread for regular summer days ???? 95-97 degrees does not deserve a thread ??☠️ That is literally saying a 40 degree high temp in the winter deserves a “significant cold pattern thread” come on guys just cause weather is boring right now doesn’t mean we have to lower our standards in threads
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I can’t believe y’all really made a thread for regular summer days ???? 95-97 degrees does not deserve a thread ??☠ That is literally saying a 40 degree high temp in the winter deserves a “significant cold pattern thread” come on guys just cause weather is boring right now doesn’t mean we have to lower our standards in threads
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Just look who started it and you will understand.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I can’t believe y’all really made a thread for regular summer days ???? 95-97 degrees does not deserve a thread ??☠ That is literally saying a 40 degree high temp in the winter deserves a “significant cold pattern thread” come on guys just cause weather is boring right now doesn’t mean we have to lower our standards in threads
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Ummmm. Jackson, MS mentioned the words " extremely dangerous heatwave" in their discussion today. Heat indices near 120 is pretty serious. Maybe a once or twice in a lifetime event for some.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I can’t believe y’all really made a thread for regular summer days ???? 95-97 degrees does not deserve a thread ??☠ That is literally saying a 40 degree high temp in the winter deserves a “significant cold pattern thread” come on guys just cause weather is boring right now doesn’t mean we have to lower our standards in threads
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I think the title is overdone. But otherwise, I don’t see a problem with the thread as it could very well end up the hottest of the summer and heat indices are pretty oppressive, which is really the main story. Also, this thread has had good discussion about the whole SE since these oppressive heat indices are affecting most members. In addition, there’s nothing boring about the wx imo as there’s almost always something interesting to discuss like what will end up being the hottest of this stretch, how high will the heat indices go, how high will the +PNA go, etc.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Ummmm. Jackson, MS mentioned the words " extremely dangerous heatwave" in their discussion today. Heat indices near 120 is pretty serious. Maybe a once or twice in a lifetime event for some.
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Im almost certain it’s not once or twice in a lifetime. Jesus . Do you ever research before making these claims ? Or at least add a little disclaimer at the end like “ I’m not 100% positive perhaps someone could find out “.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Ummmm. Jackson, MS mentioned the words " extremely dangerous heatwave" in their discussion today. Heat indices near 120 is pretty serious. Maybe a once or twice in a lifetime event for some.
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When I lived in Birmingham one year it was 108° for a week straight and that was not the heat index.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Ummmm. Jackson, MS mentioned the words " extremely dangerous heatwave" in their discussion today. Heat indices near 120 is pretty serious. Maybe a once or twice in a lifetime event for some.
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In the corridor from Birmingham to meridian Mississippi usually gets over 100 many times in a summer. Tuscaloosa is one of the hottest places in Alabama.
 
KATL's high today as of now is only 91 vs the 97 that was forecasted by FFC and the 94 from Maxar. Also, tomorrow's FFC forecasted high has been lowered to 93 from the 96 of this mornings' forecast. Sun's FFC forecast is for 95. Maxar has 93 and 94 for the weekend. So, it is possible that the KATL 95 from Wed 7/28 will turn out to the hottest of this stretch. What's interesting about that is that Thu-Sat were originally progged by FFC and Maxar to be hotter than Wed! Per Maxar's Wed AM forecast, they had Wed at only 92 vs the 95 actual, Thurs at 96 vs the 94 actual, today at 96 vs the 91 (so far) actual, and 96 tomorrow vs their updated Maxar/FFC forecast of only 93.
 
GaWx said:
KATL's high as of now is only 91 vs the 97 that was forecasted by FFC and the 94 from Maxar. Also, tomorrow's FFC forecasted high has been lowered to 93 from the 96 of this mornings' forecast. Sun's forecast is for 95. Maxar has 93 and 94 for the weekend. So, it is possible that the KATL 95 from Wed 7/28 will turn out to the hottest of this stretch. What's interesting about that is that Thu-Sat were originally progged by FFC and Maxar to be hotter than Wed! Per Maxar's Wed AM forecast, they had Wed at only 92 vs the 95 actual, Thurs at 96 vs the 94 actual, today at 96 vs the 91 (so far) actual, and 96 tomorrow vs their updated Maxar/FFC forecast of only 93.
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Raleigh hit 97 on the inter hours . Will find out official high at the 751 hourly .
 
DFW eeked out an intra-hour 100*F today after the daily climate report was released, making it the 4th this season.
 
GaWx said:
KATL's high today as of now is only 91 vs the 97 that was forecasted by FFC and the 94 from Maxar. Also, tomorrow's FFC forecasted high has been lowered to 93 from the 96 of this mornings' forecast. Sun's FFC forecast is for 95. Maxar has 93 and 94 for the weekend. So, it is possible that the KATL 95 from Wed 7/28 will turn out to the hottest of this stretch. What's interesting about that is that Thu-Sat were originally progged by FFC and Maxar to be hotter than Wed! Per Maxar's Wed AM forecast, they had Wed at only 92 vs the 95 actual, Thurs at 96 vs the 94 actual, today at 96 vs the 91 (so far) actual, and 96 tomorrow vs their updated Maxar/FFC forecast of only 93.
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KATL
1627738670095.png

Ground moisture and high dewpoints kept this heatwave from being warmer, but no doubt the high heat indices were oppressive.

1627738808404.png
 
82/66 at GSP at 11am, really not too bad. ?

But 90/76/101 already at CAE; ouch! ?

CHS: 89/78/103
SVN: 91/77/105 ?
Vicksburg MS : 88/84/113 ???
 
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89/73 already

Tulsa hit 101 yesterday first 100 in 2 years

This front can't get here soon enough
 
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GaWx said:
I'll eat my treadmill if KATL hits 100. Too moist soils for that. Let's see what happens.

Maxar, everyone's favorite, thinks ATL's hottest of the next 2 weeks will be 95 (Thu and Fri).
They have ATL/RDU/MEM having their hottest days on Thu and Fri with 95 at ATL and RDU and 96 at MEM.
They have DFW at 102 Sat and Sun.

What do others think for these cities' hottest of the next 2 weeks (over, under, or right on these hottest day forecasts of 95, 95, 96 and 102)?

@SD already thinks over for ATL and RDU per the July thread.
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Although the timing of the hottest days in this forecast was too late by one to several days (DFW was 4-5 days too late), the hottest temperature verified very well with ATL, MEM, and DFW perfect at 95/96/102 and RDU only one too cool with actual of 96 vs forecast of 95. Hopefully, these will end up hottest of the entire year.
 
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