• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

here we go

Light freezing rain across West Alabama tonight then a winter storm with mixed precipitation across the western half of Central Alabama Monday and Monday night...

ALZ017-024-025-033-034-142200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0002.210215T1500Z-210216T0600Z/
Blount-Jefferson-Shelby-Perry-Bibb-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana,
Pelham, Alabaster, Marion, and Centreville
336 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total ice
accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible and sleet
accumulations up to a quarter of an inch with locally higher
amounts. Temperatures fall well below freezing Monday night.

* WHERE...Blount, Jefferson, Shelby, Perry and Bibb Counties.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

Light freezing rain across West Alabama tonight then a winter storm with mixed precipitation across the western half of Central Alabama Monday and Monday night...

ALZ017-024-025-033-034-142200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0002.210215T1500Z-210216T0600Z/
Blount-Jefferson-Shelby-Perry-Bibb-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana,
Pelham, Alabaster, Marion, and Centreville
336 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total ice
accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible and sleet
accumulations up to a quarter of an inch with locally higher
amounts. Temperatures fall well below freezing Monday night.

* WHERE...Blount, Jefferson, Shelby, Perry and Bibb Counties.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

QUOTE="TileDude, post: 407402, member: 373"]
Birmingham metro just went under a winter storm watch.
[/QUOTE]
 
Wow, the darkest red on the HSV graphic is just miles from my location, yet I am only in a Winter Storm Watch. I feel bad for my daughter who just drove up from Pensacola. She may have to turn around and go back home since she has to work on Tuesday. Earlier I thought she could escape on Monday morning.
 
What a mess in SE MS. Can someone tell me why there's a warning to the west of Hattiesburg, an advisory to the east and nothing in between ?20210214_053920.jpg
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
What a mess in SE MS. Can someone tell me why there's a warning to the west of Hattiesburg, an advisory to the east and nothing in between ?View attachment 74820
Click to expand...

I would assume either Mobile and Jackson didn't coordinate or their forecasters have a differing opinion. There could also be different criteria in Mobile and Jackson CWA's.
 
Good morning all, excited to track this winter storm over the next few days. HSV AFD for this morning below.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
438 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 438 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Low clouds and patchy of fog/freezing fog will continue across the area early this morning. Thankfully, the fog isn`t too widespread at
this time because temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s as of 10z. As a result, not seeing much in the way of impacts from this freezing fog, though we can`t rule out some localized slick spots on bridges, especially across northwest Alabama. With low clouds hanging in for most of the day,
temperatures will not budge a whole lot and will likely struggle to climb much above the freezing mark. On the whole, expect mainly dry conditions today with perhaps some fog or drizzle hanging on through the morning. We`ll start to see an uptick in precipitation late in the day, but with temperatures at or just above freezing expect this to fall as a cold rain with no impacts anticipated. Our attention
will quickly turn to a major winter storm forecast to impact the area tonight through Tuesday morning. Details on that in the section below.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

A significant winter storm will impact the Tennessee Valley region starting this evening/tonight and lasting until early Tuesday
morning. Several rounds of mixed precipitation are expected: firstas freezing rain and then mixing with sleet and snow periodically throughout Monday and Monday night. This has the making of a hazardous and potentially dangerous winter event for the Tennessee Valley. Here are some key messages regarding our forecast below:

Key Messages:

1. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the entire Tennessee Valley region from 6 PM this evening through 6 AM Tuesday. This
warning replaces the Winter Storm Watch issued Saturday afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning means hazardous travel and other significant societal impacts are now expected for the aforementioned timeframe.

2. Winter weather and hazardous conditions will not start at the same time for everyone. Freezing rain and hazardous travel conditions
could develop as early as this evening in northwest Alabama. These impacts may not be totally felt across north central Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee until late tonight into early Monday morning, or in northeast Alabama until early Monday morning.

3. Precipitation type will vary throughout the event. We expect freezing rain to develop as early as this evening across northwest
Alabama and slowly spread across the area tonight into Monday morning. Freezing rain will mix with sleet or snow at times
throughout the day on Monday and into Monday evening, before probably
changing over to light snow Monday night.

5. Our entire area should be prepared for hazardous travel conditions by the Monday morning commute. We expect that ice and
sleet/snow accumulations will only make travel more difficult throughout the day, and potentially near impossible by Monday
evening and night.

6. Travel impacts could last well into Tuesday and potentially through Wednesday morning (when we finally could warm up above
freezing). Bottom line: With temperatures not forecast to rise above freezing in most areas on Tuesday, persons could be stuck where they are for as much as 24-48 hours.

7. While snow and sleet are expected to occur during the event, freezing rain may end up be the predominant precipitation type. If
this is true, our ice totals may be a little underdone. Some localized significant ice accumulations may be possible, resulting in
tree damage and power outages.

8. Depending on the magnitude of ice accumulations and travel impacts, power outages could persist in some rural areas for a few days. The combination of bitter cold temperatures Monday night into
Tuesday will make this particularly hazardous for those that do lose power. Residents should be prepared and have an emergency supply kit ready in the event of a long duration power outage.

9. Subtle details about the forecast may change leading up to this event. However, confidence is fairly high of significant winter
weather impacts across our entire area at some point during this warning window. Use your time today wisely to prepare.

Main forecast change for this package was to upgrade to the Winter Storm Warning for the entire area. Based on an analysis of soundings, upper air data, and the vertical temperature profile, feel confident
that freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type for much of the area tonight into Monday, especially for north central
Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. The wildcard will be how much sleet/or snow can mix in which would cut back on our ice accretion (but NOT impacts!). Think sleet/snow is more probable in northwest
Alabama which is where we`ll see the greatest totals from this. The other caveat will be northeast Alabama, specifically DeKalb County. Surface temperatures should remain above freezing for most of the night. However, don`t let your guard down. A change over will occur by early to mid Monday morning and winter weather impacts will be felt for the remainder of the day and night.

Expect precipitation to taper off from west to east late Monday night into early Tuesday. However, with the bitter cold air in place
(Lows in the mid Teens to lower 20s), impacts will not change. Significant travel impacts will be felt well into Tuesday as we likely won`t warm above the freezing mark.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top