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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Flotown
Member
Yeah euro went north but am I correct in saying that it's not that great in the short range??Or am I just wishcasting?
Stormlover
Member
I don't think it is...however the NAM would worry me more than it. I'm riding the HRRR, another 48 hour one will be out in a little over an hour
Here she comes!
They're definitely up to something at FWD.
Also, FWIW, the 00z models runs were actually an improvement overall and came to a fairly good consensus. All of them except the NAM show 4-7" for DFW, but with a NW to SE gradient.
Last edited:
accu35
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Can hear the pingers outside the window.
Brent
Member
Thats encouraging it's reaching the ground
Ugh, that damn gradient.
Just need a 30 mile shift SE...
Just need a 30 mile shift SE...
Brent
Member
I have seen some talk elsewhere of a favorable trend for the metro the last few hours but I really think we're into nowcast time now
Brent
Member
Pingers on the window now
Not bad. Latest SREF plumes show an average just over 5" for DFW. That's the highest it's been,
You have the NMB ensemble with a consensus of 2-4" and the ARW ensemble with a consensus of 5-8".
2 loons for the ARW show 10-12" and 1 loon for the NMB shows less than 2".
You have the NMB ensemble with a consensus of 2-4" and the ARW ensemble with a consensus of 5-8".
2 loons for the ARW show 10-12" and 1 loon for the NMB shows less than 2".
Brent
Member
Some stray tiny flakes here mixing in
Stormlover
Member
6z HRRR 
sleet
sleet
Stormlover
Member
Moderate snowfall here. Ground is already covered.
1. For DFW winter storms of 1"+, here are the 4 coldest I could find back to 1940:
- 1/31-2/1/1985: 2.9" snow from 0.24" liquid or 12:1 ratio; temps 13-17
- 1/31/1951: 1.1" of something from 0.31" liquid or 3.5:1 ratio; temps 15-18
- 1/30/1949: 2.9" snow from 0.22" liquid or 13:1; temps in teens
- 1/28/1948: 2.2" snow from 0.22" liquid or 10:1; temps mainly 13-16
So, if today's storm produces 3"+ and temps are mainly in the teens, which looks very likely, it would become the heaviest very cold snow/sleet on record at DFW.
2. Though the 0C 850 line is a much closer call meaning ZR/IP could at least mix in, DFW has a chance if it is mainly snow at a second 3"+ accum. on Wed, which would be only 3 days later. I couldn't find 2 3"+ accums within 3 days back to 1940. The closest I could find to that were these:
- Feb 1978 had a 1.5" and a 7.5" just 2 days apart
- Jan 1978 had a 2.0" and a 1.5" 3 days apart
- Jan 1948 had a 4.0" and a 2.2" 4 days apart