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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

SouthATLwx said:
And of course, FWD has cut down the snow amounts in DFW to 3-4"
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Yeah, I thought Dallas would get a foot total from both systems, but that's probably not going to happen. Feels like the shifts east on models recently have been screwing the DFW area. 3-6 with isolated amounts of 7 is probably what most of DFW should expect from the first system. Still a solid storm, but not quite the widespread 6-8 inches showing up before.
 
SASQUATCH said:
It really did shift a tick east. Dont know if it's just a minimal difference or start of a trend (cave)
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If I lived in AL I would really be rooting for a way to deepen the freezing layer and avoid freezing rain. If the low level cold over performs it's just going to be a larger area of freezing rain. Notice how the back edge of the freezing rain didn't really move east but the front edge did. Nam might be moving toward other models with the LL cold but they didn't really budge as much with the warm nose
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah, I thought Dallas would get a foot total from both systems, but that's probably not going to happen. Feels like the shifts east on models recently have been screwing the DFW area. 3-6 with isolated amounts of 7 is probably what most of DFW should expect from the first system. Still a solid storm, but not quite the widespread 6-8 inches showing up before.
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The trends with Wednesday's storm haven't been great either (unless you like slipping and sliding on ----).

But, I left that rant for the Whamby thread.
 
This is your classic “precip will overperform” situation here, the 3km looks to dry here imo. when your precip is driven by WAA over the arctic boundary (overrunning) precipitation is always gonna over perform, but the warm nose will almost always over perform meaning IP/ZR farther NW. but i sorta doubt models showing this “dry slot”. I would bet there’s already overrunning precip earlier then modeled, whether it’s sleet, ZR or snow. 0E20953D-3865-4829-8F20-5F44B73C14B4.png8A5A1E2B-84C8-4A11-8DDD-54EEC95AC8EE.png
 
SD said:
If I lived in AL I would really be rooting for a way to deepen the freezing layer and avoid freezing rain. If the low level cold over performs it's just going to be a larger area of freezing rain. Notice how the back edge of the freezing rain didn't really move east but the front edge did. Nam might be moving toward other models with the LL cold but they didn't really budge as much with the warm nose
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Warm nose is going to be strong up through most of AL I’m afraid....and it ALWAYS wins out.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Even though I'm not getting anything here in GA, I do have to say when else has pretty much 99% of Texas been under a winter storm warning/ watch, or advisory all at once? Not only that but all OK and AR too.
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There hasn't been anything that widespread in the South since February 2010.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Even though I'm not getting anything here in GA, I do have to say when else has pretty much 99% of Texas been under a winter storm warning/ watch, or advisory all at once? Not only that but all OK and AR too.
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Not gonna lie that ---- is depressing
 
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