ATLwxfan
Member
Any chance of something miraculous happening with the front next Thursday?
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
i,wanted to asked this but was afraid of the answer
DadOfJax
Member
If the 0z continues to send the LP further East before it cuts, I will bite. There definitely has been a trend today, although it’s only 30 mile swings each run, these at up over 6-8 runs before the event starts. Also, if it continues to trend throughout tomm. I would say that all bets are off. For now, I’m still not buying it.....for the sake of my sanity mostly.
Stormlover
Member
absolutely, plenty of time for it to chance course
Storm5
Member
00z na00z nam is a horrible track right through central bama . It’s an outlier track from the runs today . Let’s see who folds first
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DadOfJax
Member
JLL1973
Member
Nam gives memphis almost a foot of snow
Storm5
Member
DadOfJax
Member
What did I miss?
Ahhh HRRR...
I was more so looking for globals, but since we are in the hi res timeframe, those do need to be considered.
OK.... 1-2
Storm5
Member
Stormlover
Member
Great trends from the high resolution models, BAMS and HRRR. they have latched on to something.
Stormlover
Member
Remember, the RGEM was already starting this trend at 18Z 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yes it will. In the form of rain.
ATLwxfan
Member
campamy
Member
Is there any close analogs to this storm? Even back to the 1800's lol? My memory sucks, and I can't remember seeing so much winter precip so close that then hits a warm air brick wall as modeled and doesn't put down anything in my area or further East.
weatherguy
Member
It's crazy all the variances of the snow amounts given by the models, I guess that what you get with the smallest shifts in temperature profiles.
18z GFS here in NW has 6-8" of snow using the cobb algorithm, ECMWF around 1-2", some models only give 1/10th of an inch of snow like the NAM, and then you have the WPC forecasting less than 1% chance of 1" or more of snow for most of North AL while the SREF is at 50% lol.
18z GFS cobb algorithm :
18z GFS here in NW has 6-8" of snow using the cobb algorithm, ECMWF around 1-2", some models only give 1/10th of an inch of snow like the NAM, and then you have the WPC forecasting less than 1% chance of 1" or more of snow for most of North AL while the SREF is at 50% lol.
18z GFS cobb algorithm :
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ATLwxfan
Member
I mean it seems like we need a lot. It’s an anafrontal look. Maybe snow over to the west helps. No idea.
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JLL1973
Member
Nam 3km gives northeast ms a narrow band of very heavy ice
On the plus side, it seems to be an outlier relative to the other Hi-Res models.
In fact, 2 of the HRW models still show a solid 5-7", and 1 other HRW model shows 4-6". The 18z RGEM also showed 4-6".