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Tropical Karen

SD said:
Geez what a mess on radar right now. Gotta think there will be another center relocation overnight toward that deep convection over nw Puerto Rico

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Yeah that will then have some implications on models as well you would think right?
 
SD said:
Geez what a mess on radar right now. Gotta think there will be another center relocation overnight toward that deep convection over nw Puerto Rico

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Yeah hard to tell what is going on....hard to tell where any LLC would be.....its broad and weak where ever it is.....there is a decent MLC forming in the heavier stuff.....be nice for it to take over....
 
Looks like Karen still headed west
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png
 
0Z UKMET: 350 miles S of 12Z implying increased US threat despite it being weak. Much further S (~350 miles) vs the 12Z and therefore implies an increased CONUS threat despite keeping her weak. Regardless, my current concern is for all of the models: is there a new center much further west? If so, none of the models so far are initializing this. This would mean less trust than normal in the models until the true center is known.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 0 18.6N 65.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.09.2019 12 21.3N 64.9W 1008 28
0000UTC 26.09.2019 24 23.5N 63.7W 1008 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 36 25.5N 63.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 48 27.2N 62.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 27.09.2019 60 27.8N 61.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 28.09.2019 72 28.3N 60.9W 1005 37
1200UTC 28.09.2019 84 28.8N 62.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 29.09.2019 96 28.9N 64.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 29.09.2019 108 29.1N 67.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 30.09.2019 120 28.9N 68.4W 1004 35
1200UTC 30.09.2019 132 28.6N 70.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 28.3N 71.9W 1004 32
 
GaWx said:
0Z UKMET: 350 miles S of 12Z implying increased US threat despite it being weak. Much further S (~350 miles) vs the 12Z and therefore implies an increased CONUS threat despite keeping her weak. Regardless, my current concern is for all of the models: is there a new center much further west? If so, none of the models so far are initializing this. This would mean less trust than normal in the models until the true center is known.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 0 18.6N 65.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.09.2019 12 21.3N 64.9W 1008 28
0000UTC 26.09.2019 24 23.5N 63.7W 1008 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 36 25.5N 63.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 48 27.2N 62.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 27.09.2019 60 27.8N 61.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 28.09.2019 72 28.3N 60.9W 1005 37
1200UTC 28.09.2019 84 28.8N 62.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 29.09.2019 96 28.9N 64.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 29.09.2019 108 29.1N 67.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 30.09.2019 120 28.9N 68.4W 1004 35
1200UTC 30.09.2019 132 28.6N 70.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 28.3N 71.9W 1004 32
Click to expand...
Larry, do you think Karen could gain some strength little more then what models are showing? Obviously if the center reforms further west with the storm and doesn't go as far north before the turn, then it could gain some steam as it approaches Florida straits into the gulf well before the trough come through?
 
Radar does not indicate much of a LLC at the 11 pm NHC position....recon is finding a weakening LLC in that area as well.....
 
accu35 said:
Larry, do you think Karen could gain some strength little more then what models are showing? Obviously if the center reforms further west with the storm and doesn't go as far north before the turn, then it could gain some steam as it approaches Florida straits into the gulf well before the trough come through?
Click to expand...

Yes that sounds reasonable.
 
0Z Euro: interesting run that sort of resembles that 0Z Sun run that hit Cuba before heading back up into the SE Gulf. This one is a bit different: Karen is much weaker/very weak and she stays near Cuba for awhile and may never reach the Gulf.
 
0Z EPS prelim has 8 CONUS hits out of 51 (16%) (TCs 1003 mb or stronger) vs 14% 12Z and 16% 24 hours ago:
1. 10/2 Cape Canav. H
2. 10/2 SE FL H
3. 10/3 SE FL TD
4. 10/3 St. Aug. H
5. 10/3 Melbourne TS
6. 10/5 LA/MS/AL H
7. 10/6 Vero TS
8. 10/8 W Fl Panhandle H
 
pretty good write up by nhc about her future strength and why models show dissipation versus strengthening. The question is what will the models do with a properly initialized and stronger storm in future runs? Will stronger equal more west in the GOM or more poleward and towards the SE before a safe recurve? Might be some model surprises yet with karen.
 
looks like this ridge may hurt Karen in a way, if it’s weak and exposed already, it’s just gonna die with dry air entrainment like that, most of that dry air is subsidence from the ridge... 0C359355-DC8C-4347-8ABE-BD0CFAD0707A.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
looks like this ridge may hurt Karen in a way, if it’s weak and exposed already, it’s just gonna die with dry air entrainment like that, most of that dry air is subsidence from the ridge... View attachment 24002
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You would think that but the NHC seems bullish on Karen and strengthening regardless of the dry air..

The main reasons for global
models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level
circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry
mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting
off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that
Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and
underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors
strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C
water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity
forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model
solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts,
 
Downeastnc said:
You would think that but the NHC seems bullish on Karen and strengthening regardless of the dry air..

The main reasons for global
models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level
circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry
mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting
off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that
Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and
underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors
strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C
water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity
forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model
solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts,
Click to expand...
Also they mentioned this in yesterday mornings discussion....the proverbial fly in the ointment

However, if Karen strengthens as currently expected, then the cyclone's robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour period.

**Interesting I've noticed forecaster Stewart is the 5 am discussion writer and seems to be leaning towards a better organized and strengthening system, other forecasters not so much, differing opinions at NHC, Lol
 
Downeastnc said:
You would think that but the NHC seems bullish on Karen and strengthening regardless of the dry air..

The main reasons for global
models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level
circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry
mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting
off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that
Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and
underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors
strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C
water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity
forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model
solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts,
Click to expand...

It is interesting to note that the EPS members that do move it west strengthens it, just needs to work on getting a solid core before it does so
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It is interesting to note that the EPS members that do move it west strengthens it, just needs to work on getting a solid core before it does so
Click to expand...
Yeah it definitely will need to develop a solid core if it's going to fight off the dry air down the road
 
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