Jessy89
Member
From what I can tell the slower it moves. Greater the chance a cold front pushes it OTS
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Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
These are more like MCVs tho, with strong convection that causes stronger gusts (55kt wind at FL found), looks like some of the MCVs we’ve had this past spring/summer
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah here's the loop to show how crazy the center is at the moment. Note the multiple vorticies, but they look to be merging
I don’t think the Bahamas are favorable for intensification or development for the rest of the season after seeing the euro. If you want a major you need to be near Cuba/western Carib, the gulf or way out in the Atlantic.
Henry2326
Member
I wouldn't eat crow yet. That's 9 days out.....this thing will change many many times till then.
I meant on my prediction early in the 12Z Euro run that it would later hit FL in the run. It now looks like it won't.
12Z Euro: SW shear rose to high levels last few frames. Still hardly moving. Moved only 100 miles 48 hours 162-210 or average of only 2 mph!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Euro's moving slowly but at 500 mb, unfortunately its different compared to the GFS having a fall front try to rush in because of course it is.
actually at 216, the door seems open for whatever Karen is to exit without anything happening now.
actually at 216, the door seems open for whatever Karen is to exit without anything happening now.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Not a tropical expert...not even a novice, but realistically, what would it take to get this sucker in the gulf & target for a panhandle (Pensacola to Panama City) landfall?
Not hoping for a dangerous storm, just some drought relief for GA & AL
Not hoping for a dangerous storm, just some drought relief for GA & AL
I think Lorenzo that run caused Karen to act a bit strangely that got close enough given the size of the major. And if true, all bets are off and models will do poorly until we know how they interact if they even do.
Here Karen goes south and Lorenzo goes north. I think some goofy interaction occurred which won’t be nailed down for days.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The 240 look at 500 would be an exit stage right in future frames I'm pretty sure if that's how it looks at the time with the ridging, but if there's some silly interaction possible with Lorenzo, we'll have to wait for a while to see about that possibility.
The real shame is that the Euro still has ridging and the GFS doesn't. That sucks for temperature purposes.
The real shame is that the Euro still has ridging and the GFS doesn't. That sucks for temperature purposes.
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Also found it interesting EURO showed Lorenzo absorbing and causing remains of Jerry to sling south-east due to the sheer size of the major hurricane before the interaction with Karen. A lot of doors are open for poss. tracks.
Lots of lightning around that more dominant center
12z EPS preliminary of TC's hitting CONUS with SLP of 1003 mb or lower: still a threat with 7 total hitting members out of 51 or 14% vs 16%/8 of the 0Z (I don't see any member stalling as a TC just off FL like on the operational)
1. 10/1 FL Keys weak TD?
2. 10/1 Just N of WPB TS?
3. 10/3 Just N of WPB TS?
4. 10/3 St. Aug. H
5. 10/4 SE tip FL H
6. 10/4 Cape Canaveral TS?
7. 10/7 FL Keys/far S tip H
1. 10/1 FL Keys weak TD?
2. 10/1 Just N of WPB TS?
3. 10/3 Just N of WPB TS?
4. 10/3 St. Aug. H
5. 10/4 SE tip FL H
6. 10/4 Cape Canaveral TS?
7. 10/7 FL Keys/far S tip H
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Looks like the new center is taking completely over as the old one to it's NE becomes less discernible, looking better organized that's for sure.
