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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

GeorgiaGirl said:
69 at midday in the middle of June. That has to be close to a record low minimum on the high, if it isn't one.

Should maybe correct what I was saying earlier. With the way the weather looks, is it mid-March or mid-June?
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Very close. The coolest Augusta high for 6/16 was 68 in 1979 and then 70 in 1961.

I'll be walking again outside tonight if at all possible.
 
ryan1234 said:
BRING. IT. ON!
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Looks like Thursday we may finally break the wedge and get some heating for storms, but I like Friday, with a left over trough axis on us/the ULL north of us for forcing, and increased 500mb winds along with the colder air aloft and likely better heating, that’s a good look for storms that would develop on the mountains and move East into the piedmont F00251E0-C7DF-480A-B24D-B5BF3DB713B0.png
 
SD said:
HRRR and 3K are hell bent on getting some elevated cape into the area tonight and really steepening the MLLRs. I feel like at some point late this afternoon into the early overnight we are going to end up setting up a band or 2 of rain centered around this area that will put down some impressive totals
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Welp here we go. Lets see how far NW this stuff can get
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like Thursday we may finally break the wedge and get some heating for storms, but I like Friday, with a left over trough axis on us/the ULL north of us for forcing, and increased 500mb winds along with the colder air aloft and likely better heating, that’s a good look for storms that would develop on the mountains and move East into the piedmont View attachment 42954
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Yep Friday has a chance to get some organized convection
 
With the pattern coming up after this ULL thru next week, it wouldn’t shock me if a MCV makes it here embedded in the flow, although areas north would likely do better
 
When you can walk outside nearly 3 miles during the evening of June 16th down here and somehow have a still dry undershirt at the end, you have to wonder if you’ve gone to heaven. Today had ~70 F with dewpoint of 60 and a decent (10-15) NW breeze. The 850 mb temp is a mere +11C. Yesterday evening’s 850 was at an almost as nice +12C. What more can one want in mid June than what these last two evenings have provided? I’m expecting one more walk friendly evening tomorrow though I don’t expect it to be quite as nice as these last two fantastic evenings. It is nice to give the treadmill a vacation. This is somewhat similar to how nice 6/15/19 was in the SE by the way.
 
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Just your everyday 10-12" over parts of NC over the next couple of weeks.

gfs_apcpn_seus_64.png

SE in general looks wet, if you buy the GFS. I'm thinking we retain generally above average pops through the period, but I'm inclined to slash those totals by 75%.

And I am doubtful that the Triangle (except maybe extreme northern areas) sees much more appreciable widespread rain with this upper low. Northern coastal plain and the NC/VA border look wet, though. Current radar motion bears that out.
 
I’ve also been watching the huge area of dust coming off Africa like Brad P keeps harping about. When it does arrive..we gonna be HOT and DRY from July through October imo.
 
We beat the record low max by 4 degrees here in Gville today! Super impressive. It felt like 50’s here all day. Basketball shorts and a long sleeve shirt working in the garden. When the light rain started to fall it got downright cold. It honestly felt like a November day.
 
Rain Cold said:
Just your everyday 10-12" over parts of NC over the next couple of weeks.

View attachment 42968

SE in general looks wet, if you buy the GFS. I'm thinking we retain generally above average pops through the period, but I'm inclined to slash those totals by 75%.

And I am doubtful that the Triangle (except maybe extreme northern areas) sees much more appreciable widespread rain with this upper low. Northern coastal plain and the NC/VA border look wet, though. Current radar motion bears that out.
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I will never understand how models can determine exact amounts of precip when dealing with summer convection. Yes, it gives us a general idea of whether or not if we have a dry or wet pattern, and models are pointing towards the latter. But no way we can pinpoint exact amounts. Unless we have a depression, TS, or a hurricane that makes landfall, it's all a toss-up. I am just glad to see the SE not have another drought. I love active summers. Especially if we can get some MCS's or maybe a derecho's going.
 
hmmm. -AAM it seems, finally a nice change of pace after two Ninos. Very similar to Late 2016, which if you remember developed into a weak la Nina.
 
Enjoy the cool wet before it gone for several months. Huge area of dust headed to NC from the Atlantic.
 
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