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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

BirdManDoomW said:
Enjoy the cool wet before it gone for several months. Huge area of dust headed to NC from the Atlantic.
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I don’t think that’s how the dust works man .... first of all that specific wave of dust moving off now travels the Atlantic and makes it into the gulf while also fading away in intensity until it eventually sizzles out ... only impacts this dust ever has is Halting tropical systems from developing ... won’t have any “month” long effects on our weather ? ?
 
BufordWX said:
If you like summer storms and NW flow events the 12z GFS looks absolutely incredible starting next week. Of course it’s the GFS though.
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Last nights euro was really good to, big broad trough in the east allowing some wind energy to, it was near this time last year NW flow was beginning to get going so it’s no surprise we’re seeing it now
 
ryan1234 said:
I don't even know how to respond to this...
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Then don’t. It will also make for red sunsets according to Brad P. Most of the south/east relies on tropical waves or systems for summer rain. There are direct ties with this dust likely leading to much hotter and dryer conditions once it gets here. Even if it doesn’t, it will choke any tropical chances from getting across the Atlantic.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Then don’t. It will also make for red sunsets according to Brad P. Most of the south/east relies on tropical waves or systems for summer rain. There are direct ties with this dust likely leading to much hotter and dryer conditions once it gets here. Even if it doesn’t, it will choke any tropical chances from getting across the Atlantic.
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That's about all it will do. It doesn't cause our weather to get hotter and rainless for "months" like to stated. Yes, it will choke the chances of tropical storms, but hurricane season doesn't even peak until Mid-August/September. Don't spread false information.
 
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Wow, only thing that’s meh is EML advection but other than that this is a impressive signal and quite a look for NW flow Convective complexes/severe wx, way better looking than the last one for now 99FACB6C-1509-472D-8D58-CDCD071122DE.png8F8EB72D-91CC-418B-9268-785E839D8964.png41186416-DE02-470E-A2B4-C14DF665A632.png883CB182-FD8E-4F78-966A-44576DE35FE4.png192FF91D-3F44-43B1-A5F6-2E0169F16ADF.png15B0AF9D-B5C9-4D81-84AF-1E0DCCC1EBAB.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wow, only thing that’s meh is EML advection but other than that this is a impressive signal and quite a look for NW flow Convective complexes/severe wx, way better looking than the last one for now
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Goodness. Cyclonic flow aloft we would likely have daily apps/lee trough/sea breeze convection to go along with many MCVs full blown MCS moving into the area. Would be a good setup to see some areas approaching double digit rain totals over the next 16 days.
 
SD said:
Goodness. Cyclonic flow aloft we would likely have daily apps/lee trough/sea breeze convection to go along with many MCVs full blown MCS moving into the area. Would be a good setup to see some areas approaching double digit rain totals over the next 16 days.
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Yeah this is that type of pattern where even if you somehow miss out on MCSs, you can get nice forward propagating clusters off the mountains
 
GaWx said:
When you can walk outside nearly 3 miles during the evening of June 16th down here and somehow have a still dry undershirt at the end, you have to wonder if you’ve gone to heaven. Today had ~70 F with dewpoint of 60 and a decent (10-15) NW breeze. The 850 mb temp is a mere +11C. Yesterday evening’s 850 was at an almost as nice +12C. What more can one want in mid June than what these last two evenings have provided? I’m expecting one more walk friendly evening tomorrow though I don’t expect it to be quite as nice as these last two fantastic evenings. It is nice to give the treadmill a vacation. This is somewhat similar to how nice 6/15/19 was in the SE by the way.
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Day 3 of unusually comfortable walking conditions continue down here. The dewpoint is still down near 60 (it probably will rise to ~62 by walking time but that's still quite nice for 6/17) and evening temps will once again be in the low 70s. 850 rise of only 1 C to a still cool for mid-June +12C. Main difference vs last 2 evenings: lighter breeze. I expect this to be the last day of this set of unusually comfortable days.
 
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I know it’s the garbage model known as the hrrr, but it shows some solid storms around CLT/GSO tomorrow, given the cold air aloft associated with the upper level low (500mb temps around -10 to -11C, and solid 500mb flow, wouldn’t shock me if we see storms with lots of small hail tomorrow and lots of CTG lightning, but destabilization is a big question and I don’t buy the hrrrs solution that much C2F21916-1A70-4547-B00D-8B581492F318.pngC3C63F74-AD12-43BE-BD4D-C2F0D3496B48.png40B227BE-F6DD-43D4-9DAF-249F0949330A.jpeg
 
how does bangor Maine hit 95 degrees this friday before most of us? hell its rare to get that anytime of the year in parts of the foothillls/mtns if not impossible
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know it’s the garbage model known as the hrrr, but it shows some solid storms around CLT/GSO tomorrow, given the cold air aloft associated with the upper level low (500mb temps around -10 to -11C, and solid 500mb flow, wouldn’t shock me if we see storms with lots of small hail tomorrow and lots of CTG lightning, but destabilization is a big question and I don’t buy the hrrrs solution that much View attachment 42999View attachment 43000View attachment 43001
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That storm in Cabarrus better be moving due south... ?
 
Our 80% chance for tomorrow is cut in half now and I expect it to go to 20% or less by morning.
 
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