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Pattern June Bugs

whamby said:
I'll take a few 100 degree days if we can get some lower humidity and lows not so oppressive as the past few summers.. last summer's hottest temp in CHA I believe was 99, but we had long bouts of AN lows... mid to even upper 70s at times. When did Tennessee suddenly become Florida?
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Sometimes it's hotter here than in Florida. LOL
 
Avalanche said:
Like eastern ridge/downslope winds dry type of heat? Or just the typical hot/humid with afternoon storms type of heat?
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Southerly flow east of the lee trough, downslope west. This setup could really favor the big heat being from CLT to GSO with a bit cooler due to higher dewpoints, clouds and rain from RDU to FAY. Regardless 95-100 looks common Sunday-Wednesday with Monday-Tuesday being the hottest.
 
Tarheel1 said:
There can’t be a heatwave with all this soil moisture! Can’t happen!
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It's working for me. No 90's yet, and I'm sure it's because I'm a tenth short of 11 inches since mid May. Even if I don't get rained on the storms are close, like last night, with thunder all around, and I stay cloudy a lot of each day with breezes when the storms are near. Loving it!
 
SD said:
Southerly flow east of the lee trough, downslope west. This setup could really favor the big heat being from CLT to GSO with a bit cooler due to higher dewpoints, clouds and rain from RDU to FAY. Regardless 95-100 looks common Sunday-Wednesday with Monday-Tuesday being the hottest.
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If we can get some cumu-nimbus development I can manage to live with it. I can't remember what year it was SD, maybe 2012, we had a time of consistent NW winds and near 100 degree heat day after day. The only respite we'd have would be those derecho type of storms that would form NW of here and survive long enough to move into the area late in the evening, but would never push through (dry entire time).
 
Today has been typical of most days this summer so far, and really since early spring. I guess I've had maybe 1 or two hours worth of sun today. It's been cloudy mostly, since I got up, and here in the heat of the day, it's 82.5. I'll take that in a summer day anytime. I'm pretty sure this is all about the apoxyclipse coming...even though I have been bitten by mosquitoes on one occasion. I mean, really, one bite in mid June for the whole year, and now I'm extra concerned by the enormous numbers of fireflies. Don't get me wrong, I love the light shows I'm getting, but when the lightening bugs are swarming like the mozzies used to do, well, if that's not the apoxyclipse, it's pretty close. Cloudy all day, light shows for the ages at night, and still few mosquitoes.....I'm watching my Katla cam daily now, and I'm storing up food and water..this is apt to be much worse than Y2K!!! And we all remember how bad that was.....I need to fashion a tin foil external jock strap to protect my vitals...I need to think ahead in case I'm one of the last men on earth...and everyone knows women do much better in apoxyclipeses than men. I will not shirk my duty to human kind! I have been stock piling tin foil, and trying to get my neighbors to wear tin foil protection, but they chase me back behind my gates, and say rude things...non believers.
 
dsaur said:
Today has been typical of most days this summer so far, and really since early spring. I guess I've had maybe 1 or two hours worth of sun today. It's been cloudy mostly, since I got up, and here in the heat of the day, it's 82.5. I'll take that in a summer day anytime. I'm pretty sure this is all about the apoxyclipse coming...even though I have been bitten by mosquitoes on one occasion. I mean, really, one bite in mid June for the whole year, and now I'm extra concerned by the enormous numbers of fireflies. Don't get me wrong, I love the light shows I'm getting, but when the lightening bugs are swarming like the mozzies used to do, well, if that's not the apoxyclipse, it's pretty close. Cloudy all day, light shows for the ages at night, and still few mosquitoes.....I'm watching my Katla cam daily now, and I'm storing up food and water..this is apt to be much worse than Y2K!!! And we all remember how bad that was.....I need to fashion a tin foil external jock strap to protect my vitals...I need to think ahead in case I'm one of the last men on earth...and everyone knows women do much better in apoxyclipeses than men. I will not shirk my duty to human kind! I have been stock piling tin foil, and trying to get my neighbors to wear tin foil protection, but they chase me back behind my gates, and say rude things...non believers.
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:);)
 
For those that are interested, I've brought the ENS ONI and the associated tables back to life on my website, and it has been updated to the present and further refined. I've attached excel data to the monthly SSTs (1850-present), monthly ONI data, tri-monthly raw data, standardized data, and rankings.
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
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SD said:
Really like rain chances starting tuesday and lasting through most of next week

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I hope so! Has Euro runs today backed off the heat any? And when is it breaking? By next Wednesday?
 
Tarheel1 said:
I hope so! Has Euro runs today backed off the heat any? And when is it breaking? By next Wednesday?
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No euro is still hot but it's not a stifling ridge it shows aftn storm chances through Monday. Its really wet tuesday onward

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The similarities between 1876-1880 & 2014-now in terms of ENSO are pretty insane, should be very interesting to see if we also manage to pull out a weak El Nino after the equinox.

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO
1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox
1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino
1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO
1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina
1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

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Webberweather53 said:
The similarities between 1876-1880 & 2014-now in terms of ENSO are pretty insane, should be very interesting to see if we also manage to pull out a weak El Nino after the equinox.

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO
1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox
1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino
1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO
1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina
1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

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Nice! Did it snow big in those 1800 years??
 
Rain Cold said:
Nice! Did it snow big in those 1800 years??
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There was a massive snowstorm right before New Years in December 1880 that dropped 11" of snow in the Charlotte metro area, unfortunately there aren't many records for other cities like Columbia, and Raleigh but the snowfall distribution probably didn't look all that dissimilar from January 1988.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nice! Did it snow big in those 1800 years??
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Thanks to library newspapers on microfilm, I know that during each of those 3 El Ninos (1876-7, 1877-8, and 1880-1) that Atlanta had one significant to major snow:
- 4" 1/2/1877
- 2.5" 1/3/1878
- 6" 12/29/1880 on just 0.28" liquid equivalent!

Also, during that cold neutral winter of 1875-6, Atlanta had an unsually late 3" snow on 3/21/1876!
 
Not seeing the wetter / “ cooler” pattern showing up later next week!?
 

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Webberweather53 said:
There was a massive snowstorm right before New Years in December 1880 that dropped 11" of snow in the Charlotte metro area, unfortunately there aren't many records for other cities like Columbia, and Raleigh but the snowfall distribution probably didn't look all that dissimilar from January 1988.
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In addition to the 11" snowstorm(which was accompanied by record breaking cold) on December 29, 1880, Charlotte received 4" of snow on Christmas Day 1880. There was also a Christmas Eve/Christmas Day snowstorm in the Southeast in 1876.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not seeing the wetter / “ cooler” pattern showing up later next week!?
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I'll take my chances with 2+ pwats and highs 90-95. Above normal precip chances should be the norm as the mountain convection, lee trough and sea breeze will all be active. These may be supplemented by a stalled front nearby and any mcv/shortwave/shear axis is the increasingly west flow aloft which would produce widespread storm coverage. If you think the models are going to pinpoint those features 5-7 days out you are asking too much, hell they struggle 12 hours out. So painting a general slightly above 20% climo pop at this range is a good call. The pattern as a whole isn't a slam dunk like the last wet period but could be just as beneficial

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Mcs development across Michigan tonight and tomorrow could be a big player across NC on Sunday as the mcv would be directed into the state during peak heating Sunday.

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SD said:
I'll take my chances with 2+ pwats and highs 90-95. Above normal precip chances should be the norm as the mountain convection, lee trough and sea breeze will all be active. These may be supplemented by a stalled front nearby and any mcv/shortwave/shear axis is the increasingly west flow aloft which would produce widespread storm coverage. If you think the models are going to pinpoint those features 5-7 days out you are asking too much, hell they struggle 12 hours out. So painting a general slightly above 20% climo pop at this range is a good call. The pattern as a whole isn't a slam dunk like the last wet period but could be just as beneficial

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I agree. But you may benefit from the MCS’s, we get them about as regularly as we get clippers to produce down here! I’m worried about the down sloping causing abnormal heat and dryness, affecting my area specifically.
 
The forecast lows in the mid 70s all next week make me want to throw up. Sorry for the bad image....
 
Just to go ahead and kick everyone in the gut, it's still officially spring lol. The 95/70 days are right on time as we approach the summer solistice this week. My yard looks like those ones out west. Its baked and want recover till we get into September the way the forecast is looking. Corn is twisting but atleast Brick is happy, since he voodoos the rain.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Just to go ahead and kick everyone in the gut, it's still officially spring lol. The 95/70 days are right on time as we approach the summer solistice this week. My yard looks like those ones out west. Its baked and want recover till we get into September the way the forecast is looking. Corn is twisting but atleast Brick is happy, since he voodoos the rain.
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No rain unless its snow

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So is this going to be the pattern all the way through September, without any short breaks? Usually we get a brief respite a time or two at some point during the summer. I realize cool fronts are not common here in the summer, but we usually don't just go all three months through without taking a short break or two from the humidity.
 
Definitely warm today, hit 91F...
 
BD86F0F9-FCA2-49E2-BC4E-767FB5BEFB04.png Please, please, please!!!!
 
The bottom fell out here. Nice soaking rainstorm. Very electrical #Win

It was a major whiff to the north then all of the sudden it expanded right on top of me
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Major WHIFF incoming!
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I really wanted the quarter sized hail! Knew it was like catching a fart in the wind! Quarter sized hail downtown, drizzle here! It’s eerily similar to winter threats around here! Atleast temp dropped to 80
 
Just dumped on over the last 15-20 minutes. Looks like a monsoon outside.

I'm finding it interesting how these storms are moving today, they all seem to be moving differently.
 
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